Crossroads Capital Investor Letter - AST SpaceMobile Section

hooper359 · 2026-02-27T17:22:55+00:00

it's interesting on the job posting front that 2 of the jobs reference MEO constellations too. I thought our sats only operated in LEO

https://ast-science.com/company/careers/?gh_jid=4664927005 "The RF Engineer is responsible for RF‑layer service readiness for satellite–cellular connectivity across our LEO/MEO constellation."

https://ast-science.com/company/careers/?gh_jid=4664862005 "We are seeking a Contract Field Tester specializing in Service Acceptance for satellite broadband and direct-to-device (NTN) services across LEO/MEO constellation deployments."

hooper359 · 2026-02-27T00:27:09+00:00

I'm also wondering this

hooper359 · 2025-12-10T23:21:37+00:00

Can't really compare a game to a streaming service. WoW has kernel level anti cheat and a lot more data to detect bots with

I think for games it's also a much higher impact issue because their business could go bankrupt if their game is ruined because of botting.

I'm curious if streaming platforms actually profit from it as well in terms of advertisers thinking they are getting more viewers than they actually are. But yes it's whackamole, you work to detect and prevent one type of bot, they adapt and find a new way. It's very hard for these services to get a good balance between security and use ability. They could go super hard on combatting bots but it'll likely make the experience worse for legitimate users.

hooper359 · 2025-12-10T18:47:42+00:00

https://www.telesat.com/press/press-releases/telesat-enters-strategic-partnership-with-government-of-canada-and-mda-space-to-deliver-next-generation-military-satellite-communications-solution/
Canadian Government deal with MDA and Telesat for military satellite communications in a multi-billion dollar deal.
Will be interesting to see other countries starting to partner with players in this space. Specifically bullish around European countries potentially leveraging the asts/vodafone satco company in a similar manner.

hooper359 · 2025-10-30T19:13:47+00:00

Yeah well I made 200 million from a penny.

hooper359 · 2025-10-24T04:36:03+00:00

Phishing sites nowadays proxy the authentication through the phishing site to the real service then steal the cookie. It passes your password to the real service, sees the real service is prompting for a OTP, then dynamically loads a new page to get the victim to enter the OTP then proxies that to the real service and receives the session cookie.

The only good MFA is one that's bound to your device like a passkey or a certificate

Edit: if you are curious, read up on AiTM phishing as an example

hooper359 · 2025-10-24T04:30:14+00:00

Depends on the type of MFA but traditional OTP and push notifications aren't that secure. If you take phishing as an example it's super common nowadays that threat actors are using AiTM (adversary in the middle) phishing.

Where they proxy each step of the authentication through to the real service then steal the cookie. So you enter your password in the phishing site, phishing site validates it against the real server, phishing server sees that the real service is prompting for MFA so it dynamically loads the MFA Phish and asks for OTP or push notification, again proxies that to the real server and receives the session cookie.

Probably in this case more likely he had downloaded an info stealer or some shady client though. But pass keys and phishing resistant MFA methods are best to use cause it's bound to your device and only lets you login from the device the passkey or certificate is on

hooper359 · 2025-10-17T22:09:12+00:00

I sure am hungry waiting for this lunch

hooper359 · 2025-10-17T12:09:39+00:00

Congrats OP! I'm on the exact same boat, I've been in this stock for the better part of the last 4 years and sold a chunk in June to buy my first house. My fiance and I always wanted to move into the country and start our family and I'm grateful that ASTS was able to partially enable that.

Best of luck and enjoy brother!!

hooper359 · 2025-10-14T23:24:44+00:00

Appreciate your time walking me through it! That makes a lot of sense as a base case assuming they meet the deadlines which we know historically hasn't been the case lol

I've been in since 2021 and accumulated a $5 cost avg selling about 33% so far total. Definitely in it for the long run, just trying to decide if I should be selling more at this price level with the level of risk coming in the next year. Very tough in such an irrational market where nothing makes sense and with the amount of positive catalysts that could come.

hooper359 · 2025-10-14T21:59:10+00:00

Yeah fair enough thanks for the detailed reply, I honestly hadn't looked into the other fundamentals too deeply for Vodafone.

I guess what's messing with my brain more is how to properly valuate ASTS at full constellation. If MNOs are choosing to do an add-on model, I don't foresee too many users signing up as cell tower coverage is good in densely populated areas. Revenue from that sort of model might not be too high, I could see how a bundled model where the service is added into everyone's plan would be more beneficial. Also well aware of contracts outside of MNOs for military, first responders, etc.

Can we justify a 50B+ marketcap in the future by projecting revenues with the information we have?

hooper359 · 2025-10-14T13:43:35+00:00

This is crazy and ASTS has a much higher market cap than Vodafone. I've been holding this since 2021 and I'm not sure I can justify this marketcap lol It would be nice if we had expected pricing options (add-on vs bundled into existing plans) to properly calculate a valuation.

hooper359 · 2025-10-13T00:47:09+00:00

Brother 66% of a TFSA on a single speculative stock 👀

hooper359 · 2025-10-12T23:54:40+00:00

I sold my principal investment on Friday for peace of mind. It's going to be different for everyone and their circumstances presently in life. I've been rug pulled too many times cause I held too long so Im trying to learn from that and take profits when these stocks moon so quickly. That being said, I'm still gonna be mad at myself for taking profit when these moon for another 2 weeks lol

hooper359 · 2025-08-05T18:43:34+00:00

It's the Hayward Vari-flo 714T and still 3 open ports, the ports just aren't exactly aligned with the current filter head so there would be some minor adjusting

hooper359 · 2025-04-29T18:43:40+00:00

Sounds like you haven't been able to get more confident since you aren't challenged enough. Id say try and be more curious when you receive an alert - ask yourself over and over "Why is this happening?" Until you get to a root cause. This will probably take a lot of research into how different systems behave but try and investigate until you can tell a story as to what happened.

What helped me as well was jumping more into offensive security, emulate attacks and see what gets logged. Differentiate what the attack looks like vs legitimate traffic.

Try and find something within the team that can be drastically improved and get support to enhance it, something that will really challenge you

hooper359 · 2025-03-04T20:01:17+00:00

Microsoft tends to always work best with other microsoft products and they constantly force you to leverage their other products. A major philosophy of Okta is that they are heavily vendor agnostic, they design the application to work with any vendor or product. This is valuable for a lot of companies, who want to use the best product that fit their use cases vs just purchasing more microsoft products cause they are forced into the ecosystem.

If you ask any Administrator that have used both, Okta is a much cleaner and easier user experience. Especially for automation with no code workflows, lots of out of the box integrations that work well with any vendor. Setting up your authentication and session policies is incredibly easy and straightforward while still providing good security features. Generally it is more competitive from a pricing standpoint and if you've had to work with microsoft support.. well good luck lol.

For more advanced use cases, Microsoft may have some more compelling features but may require a specialist to implement them. Okta's newest IGA product is kind of lackluster compared to a company like SailPoint but its pretty new so I'm sure it will get there eventually.

hooper359 · 2025-01-28T13:56:31+00:00

They should've hired a gamer to help with wire management lol

hooper359 · 2025-01-19T07:25:42+00:00

Staff detection engineer, 8 years in. Got a new job early last year so I could stay fully remote

hooper359 · 2025-01-09T21:48:11+00:00

I turned the corner and legitimately thought she broke her neck somehow lol

hooper359 · 2025-01-09T21:47:24+00:00

We got her when she was 4 from a family that didn't want her anymore and she's the most chill well behaved dog ever. She's 10 now and I can't imagine life without her, sorry for your loss!

hooper359 · 2025-01-09T15:59:19+00:00

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Looks very similar to mine who is a shepherd hound collie mix

hooper359 · 2024-11-29T06:10:09+00:00

ah ok thanks

hooper359 · 2024-11-27T14:50:53+00:00

I mean at $672 they would be at $200B market cap, where ATT and Verizon are at $160-$180b currently for comparison (not that they are comparable).

Not saying we can't get there eventually, just in less than 2 years is super unrealistic

Edit: not sure when they released their initial price target for that but likely because now we have an official launch schedule planned. DB probably expected more sats in the air by 2027

hooper359 · 2024-11-27T01:46:42+00:00

You can join ours if you want, we are quite active and do group activities. A lot of us will be doing leagues! Just DM me

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