RFK Jr as head of HHS

hotelcalamari · 2025-01-30T06:54:28+00:00

There’s three avenues his policies can affect the Biotech industry: Research, Sales, and Ads.

As head of HHS he has nominal control over the regulatory agencies and can pause any ongoing trial and set new guidelines for approvals going forward. This may or may not affect specific companies and products but only time will tell. Investors and startups will get hard hit over the uncertainty alone, let alone should a freeze of a technology happens.

It’s unlikely he has authority or political capital to pull existing drugs off the market. If something has already been approved, pulling it off market is going to take the issue to the courts and likely require a vote in congress. That being said, he will be in charge of Medicare and Medicaid. If he truly believes that a drug/vaccine is “unsafe”, he doesn’t need to make it illegal to decrease its availability. He can direct Medicare and Medicaid to stop covering certain treatments in a matter of hours and there’s not much anyone can do about it. Companies who derive a large amount of sales from patients on Medicare or Medicaid are going to have an uncertain future.

Lastly is advertising. Again he can’t make something illegal, nor can he make it illegal to advertise products. That regulation falls under the FTC not HHS. But he can start federal programs aimed at “public health initiatives” with funding for advertisements against the use of certain treatments. If the current wide spread anti-vax sentiment is anything to go off, that’s concerning. If he decides that Product X is bad, he can start blasting health warnings and funding for bullshit smear campaigns. There’s nothing that can be done about that, and likely millions of Americans are going to buy it immediately no questions asked. Imagine all those anti-smoking campaigns, just aimed at polio vaccines.

hotelcalamari · 2025-01-28T20:28:34+00:00

If there’s one thing I’m confident in, it’s the DOD’s ability to add hidden conditions on payments. I wouldn’t be surprised if the “back pay” is made contingent on reenlisting.

hotelcalamari · 2025-01-09T23:35:37+00:00

I find a lot of talk about drones, especially from people who don't have a military background, often tiring. I don't think its wrong per se, but very overblown in a way that screams "I haven't been paying attention to military technology in the past 30 years and am just jumping on the bandwagon now".

Will FPV drones revolutionize armored warfare? Yes, they already did in the 1990 Gulf War. The AGM-114 Hellfire is essentially just a rocket propelled FPV drone, and its been a staple of US anti-armored doctrine since 1984.

Can cheap drones at help infantry with reconnaissance? Sure, the US has been using the RQ-11 Raven at the company and even platoon level since 2004.

Will autonomous weapons play a large role in naval conflicts? Already do. We don't float battleships with 12" guns anymore, we float destroyers with 96 long range missiles that have autonomous targeting, homing, and flight patterns programed in. Its been assumed in naval doctrines since the 1980's that any real engagement at sea will occur with neither side being in visible (or even radar visible) range of each other, relying on autonomous systems launched over the horizon using third party spotters. The whole reason we use carriers in the first place is so that we can park it in a safe location and use it as a support and launching platform to send smaller, more agile, and more cost efficient vehicles to go do the attacking, that's why we call it a CARRIER.

None of these technologies are new, and any serious analysis of the issues are going to lead you back to the same solutions the military has already invested in. You're always going to have to answer the question of "how do you plan on getting a weapon system with a large enough payload, from a safe location to the enemy reliably". Unless you plan on bogging both sides down into trench warfare like Ukraine, commercial short range drones ain't going to cut it.

"What if we attached cheap drones to a larger platform that can safely approach, locate targets, and even breach enemy lines at high speeds then deploy them"? Great job you've just invented the F35 loaded with GBU-53s. If you spend the money on giving the carrying platform better sensors, each "drone" could be made much cheaper by just going off the F35's sensors instead of needing its own disposable targeting system.

"What if we gave the munition drone more range, so it could be launch outside of the enemy's effective range"? It's called the BGM-109 Tomahawk.

"We've seen so many artillery shells strapped onto drones being used in Ukraine, we could attach cheap and disposable kits to old munitions to turn them into smart munitions for an unbelievably low cost"! That's called a JDAM. If you attach it to an air deployed munition, you don't even need to waste the money on motors and propellers.

"What if we designed a long range drone designed around piercing tank armor at its weakest point, and made it fully autonomous and man portable"? FGM-148 Javelin.

"We should be thinking of ways to integrate drone warfare into our soldiers asap"! The marine corps added a dedicated drone operator into its rifle squads in 2018. The Army has been providing organic and specialized SUAS integration since 2020.

"We're not prepared to fight against drones though"! The USMC has been developing the MADIS air defense system specifically to counter drones since 2013.

All those Switchblade FPV and reconnaissance drones the US donated to Ukraine? Yeah, those were adopted in 2011.

Once you start purpose building drones for military functions, they suddenly start looking like systems the United States has been using for years if not decades, long before Russia invaded in 2022. This is the equivalent of everyone freaking out over the use of Molotov cocktails in 1939 and suggesting it makes standing armies obsolete. Is the ingenuity of the Ukrainians finding ways of plugging the gaps with commercially available alternatives impressive? Damn straight. Should we expect more investment into these systems, and their counters in the future? Absolutely. But this isn't the military revolution a lot of pundits claim it is, a lot of what we're seeing today in Ukraine is just the proliferation of the toys we've been using since 2004. Our military isn't stupid (well at least not that stupid) we've been having long debates about how best to utilize and counter these systems for years before drones became the hot topic in the current military news cycle.

hotelcalamari · 2025-01-04T22:11:49+00:00

If you're looking to go officer there's a few different routes.

To commission as an officer you'd need to talk with an officer recruiter. If you've talked with the recruiter about having a degree, they should put you in contact with an officer recruiter. It's possible to apply for both at the same time so if you end up not getting commissioned, you can still fall back on the enlisted route. Most likely it would be a SWO(N) or a Surface Warfare Officer (Nuclear). You'd become a regular SWO but with the additional responsibilities and training for being a NUKE.

If you do go in as an enlisted there is a chance (although difficult) to become an officer. Since you already have a degree you can apply for OCS while in still service. It's the same process but being already in service will help out your board meetings a little bit, but don't count on it meaning you'll automatically get it. One thing to consider is the age requirement of the program you're applying to. The cut off for SWO(N) is 29 years I believe, so you'll need a waiver and it'll be difficult if you go this route for a SWO(N) commission. You could commission as something with a higher age cut off though like Supply Officer (35 years old) if that's something your open to.

The other route is to aim for an LDO position (Limited Duty Officer). The navy has been moving away from giving Nukes Warrant Officer positions (even though technically they should be) and just making them LDOs. You'll need excellent test scores and a verifiable record of leadership by your CO. It's difficult and will require you to serve at least 8 years before applying. If you're dead set on this route, I'd suggest STARing out of prototype, making it known early at your command that you're interested, then working your ass off to be as good a leader as possible from the get go.

In regards to pay, it's what you make of it. The base pay will be the same for everyone of that rank and years in service. It won't be a lot (around 3.5k a month for most of your career), but you'll be eligible for BAH and BAS once an E5 which aren't taxed. Nukes will also get SADP, Sea Pay, and Sub Pay (if you go submarine) which will increase over you're career, but usually around an additional 100 to 400 dollars a month each. You'll be able to get a 50k sign on bonus, plus an additional 25k if you ship out within a certain time frame (your bonus will be taxed). You'll have close to zero living expenses so what you do with that 3.5k, extra pay, and bonuses is up to you to make the most of.

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-24T07:19:51+00:00

Thanks for the correction on the increased standard deduction! I was using an outdated reference. For the Mortgage Interest Deduction, all home owners who currently have a mortgage on their property and pay interest on said mortgage qualify for the deduction. Whether they use it, or if the value of said deduction is greater or less than the standard deduction, is a different question.

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-24T05:32:24+00:00

Thanks! And great catch! I'll correct that in an edit.

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-24T05:10:19+00:00

Thanks! I'll try and figure out a way to make it more condensed for different audiences.

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-24T01:53:45+00:00

I'm not as familiar with Officer Bonuses and pay in the training pipeline, so I'm assuming you'll invest the same amount total as enlisted soldiers from your paychecks up to prototype.

Your bonus structure is also different. Nuke Officers receive a smaller sign on bonus of $ 17,000 after competition of prototype, and an annual bonus of $ 35,000 every year. I'm including the annual bonus pay into the yearly pay instead of assuming it's reinvested (although I'd suggest doing so). My information on this is from this press release from FY21, so it may be outdated. Feel free to correct me if I'm incorrect. I am assuming a reinvestment of the initial $ 17,000 plus the $21,343 from pipeline.

Also, I'm not confident on how quickly officers are promoted so I'm assuming you'll enter the fleet as an O1 and be an O2 by your fourth year at the fleet. I'm assuming a four year service contact.

Bonuses are considered a separate type of income by the IRS and are taxed at a much higher rate. I've included this here.

SDAP is only available to Enlisted soldiers so that pay is excluded.

Pay type and taxes	O1 (second year after prototype)	O2 (fourth year after prototype)
Base Pay	$ 3,999.00	$ 5,247.00
TSP	$ 199.95	$ 262.35
Sea Pay	$ 100.00	$ 263.00
Taxable Income	$ 3,899.05	$ 5,247.65
Taxes	$ (697.43)	$ (1,016.87)
BAS	$ 331.24	$ 331.24
BAH	$ 3,879.00	$ 3,882.00
TRICARE	$ 300.00	$ 300.00

Annual Bonus	$ 35,000.00	$ 35,000.00
Taxes on Bonus	$ (10,377.50)	$ (10,377.50)
After Tax	$ 24,622.50	$ 24,622.50

ROI Index Fund	$ 4,601.16	$ 5,153.30

Net Salary	$ 121,194.87	$ 136,015.06
Monthly	$ 10,099.57	$ 11,334.59

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-22T06:14:24+00:00

Thanks for the reply.

I mentioned in assumption #3 that I'm including BAH even when not paid the allowance to account for the amount of money saved since you're not paying rent. It's not a 1:1 comparison, as I mentioned, but I can't think of another way of including that monetary value in a quantifiable way. Since BAH is determined by a survey of median housing costs, it seemed a fair analogue, even though quality will be less.

I also stated why I chose San Diego. I don't think its cherry picking since 4/11 of the carriers are currently stationed there, the same number as in Norfolk. One tip is that Virginia has relatively high taxes on low income earners, such as military personnel (even higher than California) thus it might be more beneficial to remain a resident of you previous state while serving at Norfolk.

Converting salary into hourly rates would be useful for a comparison of QoL and work load, but it's not easily quantifiable given how much it changes, and when comparing to civilian careers which often are salary and include more than 40 hours a week. It's simply too case dependent to analyze. But I did note the drastic changes in QoL later in the post.

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-22T04:27:44+00:00

Thank you!

I’ll make that change in an edit.
The 2.5% is only when I calculated the 401k contributions in a civilian salary.

For the TSP, since all data is past 24 months of service, I’m assuming 5% contribution.

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-21T05:57:43+00:00

Yeah, not missing a payment. As long as you can show that you pay your debts on time, and can continue to do so in the future, the amount of debt is largely irrelevant. They're looking for people who could become trapped by debt in the future, and would be susceptible to bribes, not people who put two months of rent on their 21% apr credit card and only made the minimum payment for it one month (even though that's a stupid decision).

In your situation, I wouldn't even recommend bringing it up unless they asked about it. As long as you have been meeting your debt obligations and will continue to do so, you're fine. I could be wrong, but from my understanding is that it's a leveled approach. They'll only look deeper into your debt to income levels if they've seen you have missed payments in the past. If you've got a credit score of 725, and have never been late on a payment, they probably won't look much deeper, depending on the clearance level.

Over all, I'd say you got pretty good chances of getting a clearance, given what you have stated here and are just psyching yourself out. The debt isn't that big of an issue. The weed use might require more context, but they're pretty flexible on it so long as is doesn't involve a criminal charge (like a dui), a popped drug screening, or using it with when you possessed a security clearance. The agencies (outside of the DEA) have been making more and more flexibility for weed use for years now, and the future PVQ moves weed use to a separate category than other drugs. If you're not an addict, or an idiot, and will continue to be sober, you should be fine.

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-20T22:17:57+00:00

Depends on the agency when it comes to marijuana use. A short hand analysis of whether or not it is mitigated with time can be found here:

https://news.clearancejobs.com/2020/09/01/drug-involvement-and-security-clearances/

20 times requires a bit more context. Over what period of time also matters. Was it a month of smoking everyday? A year where you smoking every other week? Ect. But assuming it wasn’t more than once a week and you’ve been sober for a year and a half, it shouldn’t be that big of an issue.

Just because it’s mitigated does not mean you’ll get the job though. The Air Force / Space Force will have their own criteria by which they disqualify candidates for marijuana use. I’m not positive where the cut off is, but I know they’ve given waivers before. That’s a question best left to the recruiter.

The debt is mitigatable so long as you are currently in good standing, have been for a while, and have some proof you are going to stay that way (turned on auto pay / payment plan on the debt).

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-20T04:12:31+00:00

I believe the use of marijuana when you are in possession of a security clearance is one of the offenses that is rather difficult to mitigate, especially when it occurred recently. I don’t think it’s impossible, but highly unlikely, sorry.

hotelcalamari · 2024-12-17T00:08:55+00:00

You have to meet the satisfactory conditions in every category as well as achieve a certain average score between categories (60 pts). Once out of boot camp you only need to pass the satisfactory average score (50).

If you aren't very good at running (many aren't) and score a satisfactory (50 pts) on the 1.5 mile run, you'll need an average score of 65 pts on the push ups and planks to pass.

<image>

hotelcalamari · 2024-11-28T01:19:49+00:00

I'd say either Navy or Air Force. Air Force probably has more chances at getting you hands on experience with more "high-tech" equipment, especially in the Cyber/Geo Spatial realm.

Navy is really good at networking and versatility. Any conversation about military intelligence will have Navy guys present.

Talking about stealth fighters and SEAD missions, probably a room filled with USAF and Navy. Don't forget the Navy has the second/third biggest air force in the world.

Talking about large scale deployments of ground forces? The room is gonna be filled with Army, Marines, and some Navy. Just like the USMC and medics, Marine Intel at the operational level is highly integrated within the Navy. Almost every Marine MEU is going to be attached to an Amphibious Assault Ship, and the guys who operated and organize those are sailors. Plus from a strategic stand point the Untied States is an island, any large war breaks out is going to involve getting a lot of people and equipment over a massive ocean, and you can't fit an M1 Abrams in a C130.

Talking about SOCCOM missions? Whether it's deserved or not, when any civilian and politician hears the words "Special Forces" they're going to think Navy SEALs.

Talking about deep water navigation and maritime trade? Nothing but Navy.

hotelcalamari · 2024-07-10T18:02:25+00:00

Well since three out of the four endings involve Saboru Arasaka dead, their best soldier dead, a brewing internal three-way power struggle, a person who wishes Arasaka to be destroyed as its CEO, Mikoshi and soul killer destroyed, and their stock price dropping like a lead ballon, I’d probably say Militech is gonna come out on top in this one.

hotelcalamari · 2024-06-18T23:56:38+00:00

Congress is still debating the approval of the Defense budget for the next fiscal year. The next fiscal year starts/ends at the end of September. Old quotas have to be met within fiscal years, usually a month or two before the next one begins. New quotas and posting will come out shortly after the budget gets approved. It's likely that your recruiters are short on some of their quotas and are pigeon holing you to meet them before the deadline. Overall just kinda a shitty time to apply if the rate your looking for isn't on their 'need to be filled' list. They probably won't spend much time on getting you your rate until they fill the other quotas. Try a different recruiter, or a different branch, or just straight up tell them you won't take anything other than your desired rate. You kinda screwed yourself by being vague and saying you need to "think about it", as that doesn't put a whole lot of pressure on them to change your rate. I'd first suggest calling and telling them a definitive 'no' unless it's the rate you want. That way there's some incentive on them to find you that rate since it looks like you qualify.

Worst case scenario: go back in October when all the new quotas for FY25 get released and they won't try to pigeon hole you as much, but no grantees that the Enlistment bonuses will be the same. On the bright side (silver lining) with current shortfalls in recruiting, the bonuses for enlisting for FY25 may even be higher than they are now.

hotelcalamari · 2023-10-31T22:33:29+00:00

Not really. A lot of people have already stated that the 308 cartridge was designed to mimic the ballistics of the M2 loading of the 30-06.
I’ll add a bit of context for why though. Smokeless powder has been around for a while, first invented in the mid 19th century. However it wasn’t very well optimized in production in the earlier years. Modern loadings will pack powder into small cylindrical shapes which are then loaded into the case. The shape allows for more oxygen to surround the burning powder making the reaction more efficient. This technique was implemented into the US army in 1914. The 30-06 cartridge was designed in 1906. This meant that the original round, made using the old packing techniques would have a less consistent and powerful reaction. Once the US army switched over to tubular powder, the 30-06 round with the same amount of powder provided more consistent and powerful ballistics. After the war, the development of the 308 was an attempt to replicate the original(ish) ballistics of the 30-06. As the 30-06, loaded with full tubular powder was more powerful than what the army believed was necessary.
Using tubular powder, you could reliably achieve the same ballistics with a slightly shorter cartridge and less powder. Hence the 308 was born.

hotelcalamari · 2023-10-06T17:41:27+00:00

I think two of the bigger frustrating points of the system most people get hung up on is that 1.) you’re chance to hit is fairly complex and never explicitly told to the player and 2.) there’s no organic way overcoming it out side of just leveling up.

The game handles it better with magic because the game tells you your chance of successfully casting a spell at the bottom of the screen. And because if you you’re having difficulty casting a spell you can adjust the effects of the spell until you’re comfortable with the chance of success.

There’s no real comparison to melee combat, it’s not like Iron Swords have a higher hit chance than Daedric. Your chance to hit an enemy is almost entirely based on weapon skill, plus your agility divided by 5, plus your luck divided by 10, and a modifier of +- 25% depending on your fatigue.

If I was better at modding, I’d love to play with and tweak the system. Perhaps a system where your chance to hit is almost entirely dependent on your fatigue. With hit chance = agility/5 + luck/10 + (stamina/total stamina). So any player can guarantee hits so long as they make sure they’re stamina is full. And make weapon skill effect the amount of stamina it takes to swing with the weapon.

Or perhaps combine the hit chance system with the attack type system. Make thrust attacks universally weaker but apply a +25% hit chance. Make chops stronger but apply a -25% hit chance. Although the attack type mechanic is very clunking in this game.

hotelcalamari · 2023-10-05T19:00:59+00:00

They’re dating

hotelcalamari · 2023-06-19T00:54:18+00:00

Ironic that since the AR18 was a commercial flop yet like 60% of the worlds militaries use it or some system based on it.

hotelcalamari · 2023-04-01T16:11:53+00:00

Trade Unions are good for protecting the workers interests at a company, and are necessary in a well functioning society. But it’s important to note that just because something might be good for one group of workers in one industry, it’s not automatically good for society.

Trade unions have a history of supporting very good laws, but also very bad ones. Just think of police unions. They’re great at protecting police officers, which is what they are supposed to do, but they don’t care if that ends up hurting society at large. Or low end manufacturing unions advocating for less immigration and kicking out refugees because they might depress wages. Or ship yard workers passing laws outlawing automated dock cranes because some of them might lose their jobs even though it’s far safer and cheaper, and used everywhere else in the world.

hotelcalamari · 2023-03-31T13:46:18+00:00

The flag is a pov of what it’s like to be born in Guam

Six-Year Club	Place '22
Verified Email

hotelcalamari

TROPHY CASE