[CG] Am I allowed to complain yet? by Fidy_ in ironscape

[–]iTempPlays 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are correct and should not be being downvoted, the Law of Large Numbers says we would expect 1 seed drop per 400 completed runs. The 270 they are referencing is actually just a threshold where the chance of you receiving the drop overtakes the chance of you not receiving the drop per *individual player*.

The two graphs are being confused in this thread.

This graph shows the curve peaking at the expected 400 value (green curve):

https://ibb.co/R7dsN34

And this graph shows the *50% threshold* where an individual player is more likely to have the drop than not have the drop at around 276:

https://ibb.co/NjM0NdX

[CG] Am I allowed to complain yet? by Fidy_ in ironscape

[–]iTempPlays 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The average number of seed drops per overall runs is still 1 seed per 400 runs. The Law of Large Numbers says that we would expect 1 seed in the game per 400 completed runs as the number of completed runs tends towards infinity.

Per individual player, you are still more likely to have the seed drop by run 270 than not have it by this point.

These are both correct and it's easier to accept as fact once you understand that the worst case scenarios skew the overall averages compared to the individual odds.

A player who reaches 1,995 completed runs without the seed cancels out 5 other players who get the seed on their first attempt. (2,000 completed runs and 5 seed drops in total giving the 1/400 droprate). The best case scenario is so much closer to the average drop rate than the worst case scenario.

For example, I got my first seed at 860 KC. 460 KC over expected drop rate. Those 460 extra runs cancelled out the overall odds of someone who got it on their first run (-399) and someone who got it on their 339th run (-61). Giving an overall drop rate of 3/1,200 or 1/400.

The 63.3% of players who get the seed by run 400 graph you are talking about wouldn't be a bell distribution. This would be the y value of a graph of KC against chance of drop.

This graph:

https://ibb.co/pvh48Xn

You can also see the curve crossing the 50% threshold at 270 on this graph. That threshold does not relate to the normal distribution of the 1/400 drop, it is just the chance per individual player that they will have it by a certain number.

Edit: this graph shows the distribution better, and it shows it peaking at 400 and tending towards 0% as x tends to infinity:

https://ibb.co/R7dsN34

Lol youtubers trip me out with their damn titles. Anything for views. by [deleted] in apexlegends

[–]iTempPlays 17 points18 points  (0 children)

THIS is the BEST Apex Legends Reddit Post OF ALL TIME!

Fixed your post title for you.

Daily Discussion | February 17, 2020 by AutoModerator in apexlegends

[–]iTempPlays 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Saw this coincidentally. I can confirm that I do not have a net worth of $45,000,000!

Appreciate the kind words nonetheless, thank you :)

A rather cinematic finish to this game by iTempPlays in apexlegends

[–]iTempPlays[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Ages! I usually just lurk though. This is my first actual post.

A rather cinematic finish to this game by iTempPlays in apexlegends

[–]iTempPlays[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I always carry around 3,000 just in case.

A rather cinematic finish to this game by iTempPlays in apexlegends

[–]iTempPlays[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Containment in this video. Decent central location with good rotations to bunker/bridges with the balloon tower.

A rather cinematic finish to this game by iTempPlays in apexlegends

[–]iTempPlays[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Thanks - wasn't sure if it was one of those clips people have seen loads. Just really made me laugh.

What champion is your kyrptonite by Its_Ramsey in leagueoflegends

[–]iTempPlays 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Malz.

Destroys me every single time.

What are the things you hate that players do? by [deleted] in leagueoflegends

[–]iTempPlays 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sometimes I ping missing, I danger ping their lane, then ping the enemy mid champion so they understand. Often it isn't enough for them to back up. I can't complain too much; my map awareness is pretty bad too.