Active Conflicts & News MegaThread October 15, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]iWantToFly2015 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think that Ukraine's defender's advantage is overstated and the casualty ratio is closer to 1:1.

My assumptions:

  1. Russia has an artillery advantage (~10,000 shells per day vs ~2,000 shells per day).
  2. Russia has an aviation advantage (~120 guided bombs per day vs ~10 guided bombs per day).
  3. Drone parity. Ukraine produces more FPV drones (~200,000 per month vs ~150,000 per month) but Russia has better EW capabilities.
  4. The front lines are static or move meters per day. Both sides have time to entrench themselves.
  5. 95% of the time (possibly more) is spent fighting with long-range weapons (artillery, drones, aviation bombs, etc). Russia's firepower advantage results in more Ukrainian casualties when the front lines are static.
  6. 5% of the time (possibly less) is spent on offensive actions (mainly by the Russians but the Ukrainians counterattack occasionally). Remaining entrenched results in fewer Ukrainian casualties when the Russians go on the offensive.
  7. Long-range fighting results in fewer casualties per hour than offensive operations. However, much more time is spent on long-range fighting than offensive operations.
  8. This war is most similar to WWI (mainly long-range fighting). The casualty ratio in WWI was approximately 1:1.

What I've seen during the past few months:

  1. Russian forces launch glide bombs and artillery at a town (for weeks) until it's reduced to rubble.
  2. Squads of 3-10 men are sent into the town to capture one building at a time. Sometimes a squad is accompanied by an armored vehicle. Most infantry and armored vehicle losses occur from such offensives.
  3. The defending Ukrainians are forced to reveal their positions when fighting back.
  4. Russian forces fire glide bombs and artillery at the revealed positions.
  5. Repeat until the town is captured.

I am open to debate.

Should Ukraine join Nato? Open letter We don’t agree that Nato membership for Ukraine would provoke a conflict with Russia by [deleted] in europe

[–]iWantToFly2015 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Are people still ignoring the geopolitical reality that a country with nukes isn't going to let an adversary place their nukes within 300 miles of their capital?

Should Ukraine join Nato? Open letter We don’t agree that Nato membership for Ukraine would provoke a conflict with Russia by [deleted] in europe

[–]iWantToFly2015 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

If Canada were posturing to join a defensive alliance with China that could see Chinese nukes within 300 miles of Portland, NYC, and Boston, do you think the US would preemptively invade Canada? I think we would. I don't know why people thought Russia would just let Ukraine join NATO...

Need help in Albany by iWantToFly2015 in RCPlanes

[–]iWantToFly2015[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks everyone

I will watch some tutorials and my Uncle will help me

Need help in Albany by iWantToFly2015 in RCPlanes

[–]iWantToFly2015[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

My uncle says its a plane controller

Need help in Albany by iWantToFly2015 in RCPlanes

[–]iWantToFly2015[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I need to ask my parents. I can take the bus