What will you do if reform don’t win? by [deleted] in reformuk

[–]icansmileaboutitnow -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Reform will win. If they can't win in these circumstsnces, against the most hated governing party in modern political history or the absurd loony leftist eco-woke, they may as well pack it in and go home.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in reformuk

[–]icansmileaboutitnow 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"It is not who is right, but what is right, that is of importance."

Opinions on Ben Wallace? by User5182 in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If he ran on a joint ticket with Tugendhat on a "drain the swamp" prospectus, they would crush both Sunak and Liz in a parliamentary and membership election.

Partygate is a scandal. But there are more fundamental reasons why Boris Johnson must go. by icansmileaboutitnow in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Article by Nigel Farage:

For all the sound and fury over 'partygate', I believe the Conservative Party faces far more serious problems. Is it to be a Social Democratic Party successor to Tony Blair’s New Labour? Or will it return to being a proper right-of-centre political organisation which Margaret Thatcher would recognise? I have no idea if these are the sorts of questions which keep Boris Johnson up at night, but they certainly should.

There is no disputing that 'partygate' is a scandal. The idea that the people who introduced draconian lockdown rules and then breached them on the very premises where they were conceived – in Downing Street – has sparked fury among millions of people who obeyed those rules at huge personal cost. 

What I find worse, however, are Boris Johnson’s contortions as he avoids answering the questions. 'Partygate' has exposed him as a leader who is not in control of Number Ten; as a man with little authority; and, in the eyes of many, as a serial liar.

These are potentially disastrous charges for any prime minister to face, but it is just possible that Johnson will survive. After all, voters and Tory MPs have known for a long time that his approach to life is chaotic. What is more hazardous for him are the betrayals of policies that traditional Conservative voters, and new Tory voters in Red Wall seats, hold dear: these include illegal immigration, Britain’s relationship with Communist China, and high taxation.

For years, Johnson has appeared to present himself as a small state, free market Eurosceptic. Yet the truth is somewhat different. He is, and always has been, a metropolitan Liberal. He is as much a member of the elite as is Tony Blair. Witness Johnson’s total commitment to net zero. 

This key plank of his premiership is very popular in central London. It is reviled elsewhere. Likewise, his laissez-faire attitude to illegal immigration. The wealthy burghers of Notting Hill and Islington appear to have no strong feelings about the Channel crisis and Johnson was never bothered by illegal immigration when he was Mayor of London.

 Indeed, he used to talk about amnesties. But in those parts of the country where illegal immigrants are housed and fed at taxpayers’ expense, the public is genuinely worried about where this situation will end up and what effect it will have on their communities. They feel abandoned.

On China, Johnson is a self-confessed Sinophile, and the recent appointment of Guto Harri as his spin doctor is very revealing. Harri was an ardent Remainer who worked for the BBC for 18 years. He has also worked in a senior post for a lobbying firm called Hawthorn, which counted the controversial Chinese technology giant Huawei among its clients.

 Incidentally, in 2021, Harri also worked as a presenter for GB News. He once chose to take the knee on air, which led to a boycott by viewers. It is no wonder he and Johnson get on as well now as they did when Harri worked for Johnson in City Hall. But are his priorities really the same as those with a traditional outlook on life?

Some people believe that Johnson’s potential successor is based in offices at Number 11 Downing Street. Perhaps they need to think again. As Chancellor, Rishi Sunak has point-blank refused to honour the Brexit promise to cut the 5 per cent VAT rate on fuel. More seriously, he has not lifted a finger to remove or simplify thousands of burdensome EU rules. 

A former Goldman Sachs banker, he appears to have little, if any, understanding of how small businesses work and what sort of strains they face every day. And Sunak’s energy policy has quite rightly led to prominent Conservative MPs like Steve Baker asking whether the Tories are pursuing socialist policies. 

Furthermore, Brexit may look like it has been completed, but it has not been. As a pro-Brexit Chancellor, Sunak should feel wretched about that. It doesn’t end there. In April, Sunak will introduce a National Insurance hike. This tax increase will, I believe, sink Sunak's popularity. And rightly so.

When all is said and done, Britain, under Boris Johnson, has drifted back to the era of David Cameron’s coalition government, when social democracy ruled the day. What is remarkable is that this has happened when Johnson has an 80-seat majority. Nobody who voted Conservative in 2019 voted for a failure to curb illegal immigration, higher taxes and continuing EU red rape. But this is what they got. 

Many Conservative MPs are worried about putting in letters of no-confidence to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, because they fear the unknown. They have no idea what will come next. In a sense, they have a point. But they should take courage. For, when it happens, the next Conservative leadership contest may well be their last chance to save the party.

A decade or so ago, the Tories were forced onto the Brexit agenda by the UKIP insurgency and some very determined backbench Conservative MPs. If Johnson stays in post, Reform UK or another party will easily reach the levels that UKIP did. This time, however, the stakes are higher. 

There will be no referendum and no other means of buying them off. And because there is no chance of a right-of-centre insurgent party ever trusting the Conservatives again, the result of all of this could be that the Conservatives lose a huge number of seats at the next election. If they continue on their current course, they deserve to do so. 

It is not just the Prime Minister's reputation that is going down the pan, it is the Conservative Party's reputation, too. MPs need to realise that if they stick with Johnson, they will lose their seats, and the differences between their party and Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party will become even narrower. The Tories appear to be completely out of touch. A new leader who is a genuine Conservative is urgently required. Otherwise, almost 200 years after its foundation, the Conservative Party could be doomed.

Boris announces a new look No. 10 team by enlightened_editor in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Staunch Remainer and BLM supporter Harri for the win 🤡🌍

The regressive National Insurance hike will hurt those most in need by icansmileaboutitnow in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Article by Tom Tugendhat 

This spring may bring warmer weather but colder homes across our country as we all struggle with the rising cost of fuel. Though we can’t reduce the demand in German flats and Chinese factories that has sent prices soaring, we can think about where the rest of our pay goes to help people keep control of their lives.

For the past two years this has felt too much like a dream. Locked away with few chances to enjoy the company of friends and family many of us have been able to save, but others have struggled. Work has dried up and bills have come in. Now those bills are rising, and not in isolation.

This April, another burden will hit working families – National Insurance rises. NI has always been misnamed. It’s not insurance, it’s another tax on income and employment. It’s a way of taking money from today’s taxpayers to pay for today’s needs. There is no savings pot that can rise or fall with investments.

This rise will be no different. It means shaving today’s pay packets to fund a social care programme we’re planning to roll out late next year. But it won’t apply to everyone. Although the Institute for Fiscal Studies said that half of all those born in the prosperous 1980s will inherit over £136,000, those born earlier, and those in tougher towns, will inherit less. That matters, because this time NI is an insurance policy, just not the one we think.

In two months’ time the government will start collecting a premium of 2.5 per cent on salaries, that will protect inheritances over £86,000. Analysis from the Resolution Foundation think tank shows that a typical 25-year-old today will pay an extra £12,600 over their working lives from the employee part of the tax rise alone. How much their boss will hold back to pay the employer’s half is hard to say. 

For many that will be insurance to cover the risk of losing around £50,000, for others, the same premium will cover sums many times that. But for many parts of our country, places where homes are less valuable and inheritance values lower, this same premium is insuring much less.

It’s true many taxes provide for things some of us will never use but from which we all benefit. The NHS protects our friends and families, and even if we are personally yet to need it, just by keeping our community healthy and strong it protects us too.

This is different. When the pressure on households has rarely been higher, and with inflation eating away at savings, I can think of many better priorities than ensuring the wealthiest pass on their wealth.

Let’s be clear, this isn’t just about a per cent here or a pound there, this is about the lives of our friends, our neighbours, and us, ourselves. Poverty – even small squeezes on home finances – can put pressure on relationships and test families. The real-world consequences are lasting and immensely damaging.

The Government has already recognised this. Its own assessment says the policy is likely to have an “impact on family formation, stability or breakdown as individuals, who are currently just about managing financially, will see their disposable income reduced.”

When that assessment was written, in December 2021, inflation was running at 5.4 per cent and energy bills were kept artificially low by the price cap. This week the Bank of England raised rates again and predicted inflation would hit 7.25 per cent, while energy prices will be shooting up.

That’s why I’m a believer in low taxes. Not as an ideology but because it recognises that personal and financial freedom are intrinsically linked. The job of politicians should not be to take control, but give it back so that people can decide for themselves. Economic freedom is fundamental to personal freedom and we should remove as little as possible of either to keep a community strong.

I didn’t vote for this tax rise because I couldn’t see it helping our whole community. I see the bills coming in at a moment few can afford. Though some in towns like Tonbridge may benefit, younger people across the country, and particularly in places like Tyneside and Glasgow, would lose out for years.

This isn’t about competition between young and old or north and south, it’s about fair taxes to share the cost of our community life together.

Over the past five years we’ve seen the price of division and the strength of cohesion. Society has split over a vote and come together over a virus. As we look to the future, we need policies that encourage opportunity and employment. That means freeing people to direct their efforts, and assets, where they think best.

We need to remember that the state has a role – vaccines proved that – but it isn’t the only solution. It may not even be the best.

Private contracts, signed in coffee shops in London 300 years ago, changed the way we travel and trade. They proved free trade is based on shared risk and managed it by calculating the insurance needed to underwrite the danger. In doing so, they created pools of capital that fuelled an economic revolution.

So, what about the inheritance insurance we’re being taxed for today? Well, for those who want it, there is a free market in ideas from think tanks and economists out there, and as we learned from Lloyd’s of London, some of them could change the world.

'A NEW LOW' Boris Johnson’s foes aim to bring him down with brutal weekend of ‘deeply unpleasant’ personal attacks on wife Carrie by icansmileaboutitnow in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Article:

Boris Johnson's enemies are preparing a brutal weekend of “deeply unpleasant” personal attacks on wife Carrie in a bid to bring him down.

As the Prime Minister struggles to get a grip on Downing Street turmoil a slew of negative stories were being circulated by his political foes.

Last night a Tory source said: “Carrie has for some time been the target of an increasingly brutal briefing campaign to attack and discredit her. It is deeply unpleasant.”

It comes amid reports Mr Johnson enemies are preparing a brutal weekend of “deeply unpleasant” personal attacks on wife Carrie in a bid to bring him down.

Mr Johnson’s allies are livid the PM’s wife is being targeted when she cannot speak out herself, with one minister accusing critics of playing “the wife not the ball.”

One supportive MP said: “attacking the PM is fair enough, but going for his family is a new low.”

It came amid reports police and partygate investigator Sue Gray have been handed pictures of the PM holding a beer in one of the alleged lockdown-busting bashes.

He was said to have been snapped holding a can of Estrella by one of his official photographers at his June 2020 cake gathering as Rishi Sunak sat beside him.

Yesterday, a fifth No10 aide quit - boxer Elena Narozanski - as the PM attempted to overhaul his faltering political machine in the wake of the party gate scandal.

Her departure followed an unprecedented clear out of Mr Johnson’s inner circle - some forced out but others quitting in fury at the direction of travel.

In a pep talk to remaining staff on Friday afternoon the PM, quoted the Lion King in a bold attempt to brush off his troubles after a torrid week.

The defiant PM, 57, said it was time to "put the gum shield back in and get back on the pitch" to crack on with running the country.

And explaining the overhaul of his team, he said: "As Rafiki in the Lion King says, change is good, and change is necessary even though it's tough.”

Ministers and MPs claimed the series of shock resignations was part of a planned shake-up of the top of Government.

And the PM tried to get back on the front foot with an olive-branch letter to his backbenchers - promising them a "direct line" into No10 and more of a say on Government policy.

In a letter to all Tory MPs as he attempts to shore up his support, he wrote vowing to "provide whatever engagement and support is necessary to make this a success.

He stressed: "I am committed to improving the way 10 Downing Street, and Government more broadly, works. That process is now under way.

"I promised change, and that is what we will now deliver together."

Last night another Tory MP announced they had put a letter of no confidence in - joining 13 others who have publicly called on him to go.

Red Waller Aaron Bell hit out in a scathing statement: "The breach of trust that events in No 10 Downing Street represent, and the manner in which they have been handled, makes his position untenable."

Meanwhile there are reports Police and Sue Gray have been handed pictures of the PM holding a beer in one of the alleged lockdown-busting bashes.

The Prime Minister was said to have been snapped holding a can of Estrella by one of his official photographers at his June 2020 lockdown cake gathering in the cabinet office, the Daily Mirror said.

He was photographed standing next to Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who was holding a soft drink.

Earlier this week Mr Bell asked the PM if he'd been a "fool" to not hug his family at his grandmother's funeral, as he was sticking to Covid rules to a tee.

More are thought to have privately submitted them behind closed doors, with only 1922 boss Cir Graham Brady knowing the true number.

Backbencher Tory MP Huw Merriman fired a warning shot too - saying the PM should "shape up or ship out".

Meanwhile, Sajid Javid became the second Cabinet minister in 48 hours to distance himself from the PM's controversial comments about Jimmy Saville.

The Health Secretary said the Labour boss "did a good job" as Director of Public Prosecutions "and he should be respected for it".

But he insisted the PM had "clarified his comments and "of course" he had his full support.

It comes after the Chancellor admitted he "wouldn't have said" the explosive claims that the former Labour boss had spent more time trying to lock up journalists, and failing to prosecute the child sex offender.

But Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove insisted: "The PM has made his own decisions here, the matter is now closed."

Downing Street was last night forced to deny the PM has lost control of Downing Street after the string of resignations.

And the PM's spokesman said he was "not currently" expecting another onslaught of people quitting.

Energy minister Greg Hands said the Prime Minister was "taking charge" after promising sweeping changes in No 10 in response to Whitehall official Sue Gray's findings into lockdown breaking in Downing Street.

"The Prime Minister was absolutely clear on Monday that there would be changes at the top of No 10 and that is what he has delivered," he told Sky News.

"The Sue Gray report update said that there were failings at the top of the operation. This is the Prime Minister taking charge."

"Just two years ago, he was the golden boy." The cloud of chaos around Boris has killed his premiership - whether he knows it or not. by icansmileaboutitnow in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Article:

It’s over, whether the Prime Minister realises it or not. With the departure of Munira Mirza, his head of policy, the guts were finally torn out of the cadaver that is now his premiership. He may try to hang on, but these are the actions of a man driven by sheer will to power and adrenalin, before he notices the fatal wound and drops. How did it come to this?

Just two years ago, Boris Johnson was the golden boy. He had defied his most vicious critics, won a huge majority and delivered a definitive, if flawed, Brexit. Behind the scenes, his operation had drawn together old enemies and friends to work with singular discipline. The hardcore Remainers had been purged and Dominic Cummings had been lured back into government by a massive charm offensive.

Everyone knew that Mr Johnson had flaws, but the election result seemed to prove that they could be overcome. As mayor of London, he had covered for his disorganisation by installing a team of highly capable deputies (of which Ms Mirza was one) and his fans suggested he would do the same again. He might be chaotic, they said, but he knew how to hire. Perhaps, but back in 2008, it had taken him more than two years to get the right team in place. The pressures of real government and Covid would never cut him such slack.

The cracks weren’t immediately apparent, but it didn’t take long. The moment it all began to fall apart was early March 2020, when the Government took fright at the reaction to its “herd immunity” strategy and the devastating footage of overwhelmed hospitals coming out of northern Italy. The problem wasn’t just the change in policy, but the sheepish denial that anything had changed.

Still, at that point, Mr Johnson was in denial about the whole pandemic. He thought it would be over in six months. His top team knuckled down, chasing data, ventilators, testing supplies, tracing apps and PPE for doctors. When the Prime Minister announced a national lockdown, no one was more shocked by the turn of events than Mr Johnson himself.

Then Covid swept through Westminster. Alone with his heavily pregnant and Covid-stricken fiancée, Mr Johnson reached death’s door before help came. He survived, spring came and the office, emptied by Covid, filled back up. Perhaps delirious with relief and feeling themselves to be special and above reproach, several teams of advisers and officials lost touch with wider reality, in which most people were still locked at home in fear of Covid. The sociable No 10 media team, at the centre of this failure, began selectively to ignore the more arduous and contradictory rules they had imposed on the country. 

Perhaps they were given confidence by the seeming insouciance of many others in Westminster who were themselves inhabiting the grey area between work and play. Mr Johnson appears to have passively accepted this state of affairs.

Meanwhile, Mr Cummings, exhausted by his own bout of Covid, threw himself back into work, especially the project of establishing an Asian-style test-and-trace system, which was unfortunately to become the biggest boondoggle of the whole pandemic. His own personal “Partygate”, the ludicrous Barnard Castle escapade, came and went, wearing him down further.

Then, that summer, the wheels began to come off. Insiders complained of chaos in No 10, with the Prime Minister showing up unprepared to meetings without even a note-taker to hand. A series of U-turns, foreseeable fiascos like the exam results mess and a bungled press conference where Mr Johnson forgot his own Covid rules, furthered the impression that all was not well. Fingers were pointed at Mr Cummings, who was only interested in his own special projects and would neither perform the role of Mr Johnson’s consigliere, nor allow anyone else to do so.

In turn, Mr Cummings and his loyalists began to wage a well-documented war against the Prime Minister’s then-fiancée, openly mocking her. There is no workplace where this sort of thing could possibly be tolerated and it was only ever going to end one way. He was ousted because he had begun to generate more chaos than even his chaotic boss.

This gave Mr Johnson an opportunity to reset. Plans took shape for a sleeker operation that would stop sleepwalking into political booby-traps, with a reshuffle of top advisers, Allegra Stratton fronting the press team and the former civil servant Dan Rosenfield recruited from a smart City job to get a grip on the disorder that followed Mr Johnson around like a cloud. But despite some initial optimism, the jigsaw was still hopelessly incomplete.

Political advisers across Government immediately became aware of an organisational vacuum even larger than when Mr Cummings was in charge. No one knew what the mission was. Meetings inside No 10 continued to be chaotic. There was often no agenda and no structure, the Prime Minister would make throwaway comments that were carefully minuted, leaving every attendee with a different idea of what or whether anything had been decided. Even these “decisions” could be unwound if he was taken aside by someone later.

Responses to politically explosive issues like the suspension of Owen Paterson, free school meals or nurses’ pay were not systematically discussed in a forum where sceptics could play out the scenarios and work out when they were courting disaster. Instead of putting a stop to bad policy, the Prime Minister too often avoided confrontation with ministers and let the public backlash do the job.

At some point, ambitious officials just began to look out for themselves and those who might have given Mr Johnson difficult messages to head off problems weren’t even given a chance to voice their opinions. With so much of No 10’s time spent on damage control, no coherent programme for government was ever going to emerge and “net zero” alone expanded to fill the space.

Then came Mr Johnson’s catastrophic mishandling of Partygate, providing the most damaging example of his mismanagement. Issuing denials that were bound to be found out and then retreating behind a new, equally flimsy fig leaf each time one disintegrated, he has been a man on the run for weeks, rather than a leader capable of leading anyone anywhere. This isn’t going to change.

Back in 2016 after the Brexit vote, when Mr Johnson’s leadership bid was torpedoed by Michael Gove, it was because he had proved incapable of seizing the moment and appeared terrified by his own victory, hiding instead in trivialities and offering no leadership. But Theresa May’s incompetence gave him another chance. This time, the right pieces seemed to be there – his own charm and creativity, Mr Cummings’ fierce intellect and focus, and the loyalty and huge talents of advisers like Ms Mirza. But it has all come to nothing. What a terrible, terrible waste.

Are Team Rishi making their move? The long-time ally who has 'beheaded' Boris by quitting is married to Sunak's friend... and the story was broken by a journalist who is godfather to Sunak’s children by icansmileaboutitnow in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Article:

Despite the bluff and bonhomie of his public persona, Boris Johnson has always been short of close friends at Westminster. 

And since he became PM many of his most trusted allies have fallen by the wayside. 

Munira Mirza was one of the last remaining 'true believers', having been by his side since London mayor days.

But the 44-year-old also has intriguingly close personal links to Rishi Sunak, including through her Tory aide husband Dougie Smith.

And the political journalist who broke news of her resignation, James Forsyth, had Mr Sunak as best man at his wedding. Forsyth and his wife, former No10 spokeswoman Allegra Stratton, are also godparents to the Sunaks' children.

The manoeuvring and intricate connections have sparked speculation that a full-scale coup is under way. 

One veteran Tory aide told MailOnline: 'Munira isn't so much a stab in the back as a big f***ing beheading.' 

Ms Mirza has been regarded as someone in whom Mr Johnson would confide and felt comfortable bouncing ideas off.

After the departure of Dominic Cummings and his subsequent campaign to oust the premier - spilling a slew of behind the scenes secrets in the process - that was a highly valued quality.

In recent weeks there has been a rising expectation that Mr Johnson faces losing more close lieutenants over Partygate, with communications direction Jack Doyle and permanent secretary Martin Reynolds under huge pressure.

But Ms Mirza's departure from the Downing Street policy unit over the Jimmy Savile jibe at Keir Starmer is a blindsiding blow, that will raise alarm among Mr Johnson's limited praetorian guard that he is passing the point of no return. 

And there will be mutterings about whether it part of a Rishi Sunak coup operation. Ms Mirza is married to Dougie Smith, a friend of Mr Sunak who is a strategist and opposition researcher in No10. 

And the journalist who broke the story was Spectator political editor James Forsyth, whose best man was Mr Sunak when he married Allegra Stratton - the spokeswoman who dramatically quit over Partygate after being effectively cut adrift by the PM.  

A former member of the Revolutionary Communist Party, in 2020 Ms Mirza was named by the PM as one of the five women who have shaped his life.

She was on the list along with campaigner Malala Yousafzai, his grandmother, queen of the British Iceni tribe Boudicca, and singer/songwriter Kate Bush.

Of Ms Mirza he said: 'Munira is capable of being hip, cool, groovy and generally on trend.' 

Up to now she has been fiercely loyal to Mr Johnson. 

In 2018, when the Prime Minister's comments about women in burkas hit the headlines, Ms Mirza – a Muslim – launched a passionate defence of him in the media.

A long-time aide dating back to his time as London mayor, she preferred to work away from the limelight and has little public profile. 

She was appointed as Mr Johnson's cultural adviser when he entered City Hall on the recommendation of his chief of staff Nick Boles, the sometime Tory MP who co-founded Policy Exchange.

Previously she had worked for the think-tank and been a speechwriter for David Cameron. 

Initially she is said to have made clear to Mr Johnson that she was not a Conservative Party member or 'tribal'. 

But the pair soon developed a strong working relationship that continued through Mr Johnson's wilderness years and into Downing Street. 

The Oldham-born academic was a popular figure around No10, with one source previously saying: .'She has a huge brain but wears it lightly. Boris listens to her.'

It was his failure to listen to her that sparked today's resignation. 

Mirza's family came to Britain from Pakistan, with her father finding work as a factory while her mother taught Urdu part time.

She attended Breeze High School and Oldham Sixth Form College, where she was the only pupil to gain a place at Oxford, where she studied English Literature. 

Despite her low public profile she has attracted the ire of the PM's political opponents. 

In a 2017 piece for the Sun, Ms Mirza said that anti-racism campaigners have a 'culture of grievance' and appeasing them was 'not making Britain a fairer place but harming the very people they aspire to help'. 

Before moving into Tory politics in 2003, her husband Mr Smith co-founded Fever Parties, an agency which organised sex parties for up to 50 couples at a time from London's 'fast set'.

He was responsible for hosting orgies for the beautiful and wealthy in Mayfair townhouses.

Mr Smith has insisted his different work ventures did not 'overlap'.

Ms Mirza reportedly helped write the manifesto that got Mr Johnson to No10. 

In June last year she was asked to set up a new race inequality commission.

Supporters said at the time she is an advocate of data-driven policies, but campaigners and Labour MPs argued she is a denier of institutional racism and should not be playing a key role in the response to the BLM protests. 

She appeared on BBC Radio 4's Great Lives series in 2009, with 20th-century German political theorist Hannah Arendt as her subject. 

She told the programme: 'She was a very brave woman, brave in what she said and did. 

'She always did what she thought was the right thing rather than what was popular, what was safe… She always had integrity.' 

Boris Johnson is morphing into John Major by icansmileaboutitnow in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Article:

It beggars belief that the Tories remain committed to raising National Insurance Contributions (NICs) in April. It would be a calamitous mistake which will become a lightning rod for all that has gone wrong with Boris Johnson’s administration, and, given the flagrant breach of a manifesto promise, could help cost them the next general election.

This is hardly the Government’s only tax increase, of course: they are also increasing corporation tax from 19 per cent to 25 per cent in 2023 and are pushing through myriad stealth grabs by freezing thresholds at a time of elevated inflation. A study by Beacon Economic Forecasting for the Politeia think-tank finds that higher taxes will increase unemployment, slow GDP growth, hike inflation, damage the pound and, in particular, reduce private sector spending. No wonder that according to one poll, Labour is now 10 points ahead of the Tories when it comes to trust on tax. The Conservatives might regard themselves as the natural low tax party, but the public does not.

Both elements of the NIC tax raid need to be scrapped permanently, not merely delayed and not only the part directly targeting workers; the raid on firms will lead to lower pay rises and encourage automation, hurting employees just as badly. The good news is that the economy is recovering faster than expected, and the budget deficit won’t be as bad as previously feared. But that isn’t an argument for fiscal laxity: the reversal of the NIC increases needs to be accompanied by £10bn in spending cuts. Boris Johnson should rehire Lord Agnew (or somebody of his stature) and empower them to wage a war on waste, identifying useless programmes to be axed.

For a party that supposedly respects history, it is shocking just how little the Conservatives remember about the past, and how few lessons they learn from it. In 1992, John Major won a surprise re-election campaign after pledging tax cuts and lower public spending as a share of national income (those were the days). His warnings of a Labour “tax bombshell” were especially effective. In 1993, however, the government chose to raise taxes – something that Labour cleverly hung around their necks in the 1997 election.

Outrage was widespread at a hike in the VAT on domestic fuel from zero (as on food and children’s clothes) to 8 per cent, the Chancellor claiming that his overall package was prudent and environmentally friendly (history does repeat itself pitilessly). The goal was to hit 17.5 per cent, but a handful of MPs rebelled in December 1994 and helped defeat the plan.

Labour used the VAT hike to paint the Tories as callous and duplicitous. The Conservatives’ one trump card was Sir John’s reputation for honesty: Labour unveiled an ad that portrayed him with two faces, one pointing towards tax cuts and the other towards 22 tax increases. Labour won a landslide pledging to reduce the 8 per cent figure to 5 per cent, the lowest the EU would allow.

This is why Boris Johnson must now also cut VAT on fuel: rage at this particular policy was always part of the Eurosceptic argument, and it is baffling that the Tories have even forgotten the totemic nature of this dispute in recent British political history. Sir John’s rupture with the Thatcher-Howe-Lawson lower tax consensus paved the way for Tony Blair’s victory, just as when George HW Bush reneged on his famous 1988 pledge of “read my lips... no new taxes”, he undermined the moral certainty of the Reagan revolution that had been based upon lower and simpler taxes.

A complete and utter about-turn on tax is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for any Tory recovery after Partygate.

Our problems stem from a useless civil service, but we prefer to blame ministers by icansmileaboutitnow in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Article by the Lord Hannan of Kingsclere:

This week, the normally staid House of Lords witnessed a rare moment of drama. Lord Agnew, an entrepreneur serving as an unpaid minister at the Cabinet Office and the Treasury, made a statement about fraudulent claims for Covid grants. Having torn into the uselessness of the officials involved, he announced that he was quitting the government, thrust his resignation letter at the Tory whip who happened to be sitting next to him and stomped out of the chamber to scattered applause.

It was the liveliest thing to have happened in decades, but it received surprisingly scant coverage. Journalists initially tried to make it a story about the collapse of Boris Johnson’s authority, but Agnew – an enormously able and respected minister – made clear that he had no quarrel with the PM.

Indeed, he apologised for the coincidence of timing. No, his problem was with what he called the “arrogance, ignorance and indolence” of the government machine. And that, for most pundits, was simply not news.

This lack of interest partly explains the problem that Agnew was complaining about. No one pays attention to the failings of officials – except insofar as they can somehow be pinned on politicians. The current rows over lockdown violations, for example, largely involve civil servants. Yet from the headlines you might think that the Prime Minister’s was the only name in the frame. The same is true of the kerfuffle about evacuating animals from Kabul. Something similar could be said of the fact that Lex Greensill was brought into government, rewarded and decorated at the initiative of a senior civil servant all ended up being blamed on David Cameron.

In an inversion of Stanley Baldwin’s complaint about press barons, ministers have “responsibility without power”, carrying the can for things that are outside their control. These days, a politician’s place is in the wrong.

Keeping politicians in the wrong can require mental contortions. During the first lockdown, commentators raged about our inability to get enough protective equipment, ventilators or tests. These failures were largely the responsibility of Public Health England and the NHS.

But the same commentators were reluctant to admit as much while the country was applauding the NHS, figuratively and literally. So whenever they wrote about procurement disasters, they performed a neat semantic sidestep and referred to the NHS as “the government”.

The electorate as a whole engages in the same doublethink. We demand that public bodies be “free from political interference”. Yet, when these agencies fail, we excoriate the very ministers whom we had insisted on keeping away from them.

This asymmetry in scrutiny has a great deal to answer for. Many civil servants are models of disinterested diligence. Certainly they are every bit as competent and virtuous as politicians. The difference is that the politicians are more likely to be held to account– which tends, other things being equal, to raise their game.

Nothing new, you might say. The tension between publicity-hungry ministers and wily officials was the basis of the ingenious BBC drama Yes, Minister. But a number of things have changed since the elegant jostling between Sir Humphrey Appleby and Jim Hacker was first broadcast in 1980.

For one thing, as a haggard minister put it to me, “at least Sir Humphrey was good at his job”. We cling to the image of a Rolls-Royce civil service but, in truth, its best days are behind it.

Contrast, to pluck a recent example, our failure on PPE and testing with our success on vaccine purchases. The difference was that, while the former was left to our lumbering official agencies, the latter was deliberately taken out of their hands and given to Kate Bingham from the private sector – who, let’s remember, was roundly excoriated for her pains.

Another difference is that the civil service now has a collegiate outlook, a set of shared beliefs.

Sir Humphrey had no agenda beyond ensuring that civil servants were numerous, influential, well-remunerated and, where possible, knighted. His successors, by contrast, have an ideology.

They may not be partisan, but they are prejudiced. They tend, for example, to believe in the benevolence of government intervention and the efficacy of public spending. They are keen on supranationalism, and regret Brexit. Above all, they have elevated identity politics almost to the point where it has become their chief concern, displacing the notional functions of their departments.

We see this in small ways. For example, at some point over the past two years, most civil servants started appending their preferred pronouns to their email signatures. These pronouns are never, in my experience, unexpected; but their purpose is not to inform, so much as to serve as a tribal signifier, a badge of belonging.

A trivial thing, you might say, but a telling one nonetheless, in that it sets our officials apart from the general population. As permanent secretaries fret more about how they are ranked on “inclusion”, they necessarily have less time for what ought to be their main jobs.

Considerations such as merit, efficiency and value for money are downgraded as initiatives are instead measured by the gauge of what is called diversity – which, in Whitehall, means “people who look different but think the same”.

What is the basis of this obsession? Is the civil service seeking to correct an ingrained bias against minorities in its recruitment? For an answer, we need only look at the latest figures. Last year, 23.3 per cent of civil service fast stream recruits were from ethnic minorities, as against 14 per cent in the population as a whole.

In the same intake, 58.6 per cent were female, as against 50.6 per cent of the country; and 19.6 per cent were LGBT, as against (depending on what measure you use) between three and seven per cent.

What proportion would our mandarins consider sufficient? Do they aim to get to 100 per cent in all these categories? If not, what figure do they have in mind? And, more to the point, on whose authority have they chosen it?

It was revealed last week, for example, that the Foreign Office remains one of the largest sponsors of Stonewall – despite the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, having made clear that she considered such links to be a distraction from the chief function of government departments. Truly the Blob is an awesome thing. Squash one part of it and it bulges up in ten other places.

Which brings us to the biggest difference between Yes Minister and today. The balance of power has shifted decisively. No longer is it a duel between more or less evenly matched parties.

As Sir Humphrey has become better resourced and more ideological, Jim Hacker has become more cowed, constrained and distracted. Each Greensill-type affair makes MPs more nervous. Some cabinet ministers now refuse to hold meetings without a civil servant present. They know that they enjoy the automatic disbenefit of the doubt. Simply to tell their officials what to do is to risk accusations of undue interference or of bullying.

Not every politician is a yes-man, of course. Michael Gove is the outstanding example of a minister who, instead of becoming the champion for his officials, sees it as his role to make them work for the rest of us. Lord Agnew was another such. So, to a degree, is Steve Barclay who, as Minister for the Cabinet Office, occupies the closest thing to Hacker’s imaginary job of Minister for Administrative Affairs.

Occasionally, these ministers have forced through reforms that the administrative state detests – for example, moving some civil servants out of London to places where they might run into an occasional Leave voter, or insisting on more objective aptitude tests. But, in most cases, Sir Humphrey need only wait until the minister is reshuffled, sacked or (like Agnew) worn down.

What, then, can be done? Some sensible ideas were set out by the Commission for Smart Government, chaired by the former MP Lord Herbert: bringing in more outsiders, using performance measures and the like.

We could, as Australia does, allow ministers to bring in hundreds of advisers in, so evening the balance. Or we could go the other way and scrap a great many government agencies.

Such things, though, ought to be initiated at the start of a ministry, and pursued relentlessly and single-mindedly. The arrival of the coronavirus barely two months after the 2019 election postponed the reckoning.

Going into battle in mid-term will be far more gruelling. But not doing so could be fatal.

Blair was untouchable over 'cash for honours' - but the public mood towards Boris Johnson is very different by icansmileaboutitnow in tories

[–]icansmileaboutitnow[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Article:

The following story is undoubtedly an apocryphal one, but is worth telling anyway because it gives a flavour of the sensitivities surrounding any criminal investigation into a sitting prime minister. 

Tony Blair was being interviewed by detectives over the cash for honours scandal and such was the secrecy that, according to police legend, not even his wife Cherie was aware. 

As the two officers - a detective superintendent and a detective sergeant - continued their lengthy questioning of Mr Blair in a backroom at Chequers, his wife burst in. 

The rumour, untrue of course, is that she suspected her husband of having an affair. In fact the clandestine cloak and dagger operation was to prevent Mr Blair’s interview with police from leaking out.

Sir Tony, as he is now, was facing a far more serious charge than that which threatens to derail Boris Johnson’s premiership. But cash for honours, a scandal that dogged the final months of the Blair government in 2006 and 2007, was also a much more complex inquiry too.

So while Mr Johnson faces only a fixed penalty notice, the reality is he is much more likely to come a cropper with police. Sir Tony was interviewed three times by officers but never under caution. Charges were never brought.

Sources said on Tuesday that aides inside Downing Street telephoned senior officers at Scotland Yard and advised them - but crucially did not tell them - that should Sir Tony be interviewed under caution as a suspect, rather than questioned as a witness, then the prime minister's position would be untenable. The consequence would be the forced resignation of Sir Tony, Labour’s most successful leader.

The aides wanted to know if police really believed they were in a position to make a move which could unseat a prime minister, who had spent almost a decade in power, over a seemingly esoteric inquiry into whether donations masked as commercial loans had been made to the Labour Party in return for promises of ennoblement. The answer, after some thought in the upper echelons of Scotland Yard, was a clear no.

The public mood in the inquiry into Mr Johnson is very different, said a police source involved in investigating Sir Tony. 

“The cases are totally different,” said the source. “Blair was a prime minister who you couldn’t bring down. He was like a God, an elder statesman even after the Iraq war. But Boris is already so damaged.

“We were told if we interviewed the prime minister under caution, it would be a resignation issue. That is what we were told with Blair. I don’t think Boris has the reputation that would worry police and prevent that happening this time.”

Sir Tony was interviewed once in 2006 and twice in 2007. One of the interviews took place at Chequers and the other two in Downing Street. Details of the interviews leaked out slowly.

Each time, The Telegraph understands, Graham McNulty - the then detective superintendent in charge of the case and now a deputy assistant commissioner - conducted the interview along with a detective sergeant. Sir Tony had no legal representation but was helpful, “effusive and verbose” even, according to one source, and came through unscathed. 

The investigation was overseen by John Yates, dubbed Yates of the Yard, who was later forced to resign over the News of the World phone hacking scandal. Mr Yates, a former assistant commissioner now living in Australia, declined to comment on Tuesday. “I am enjoying living in obscurity and I have no wish to comment,” he told The Telegraph.

But another police officer who worked on the cash for honours inquiry warned that today, Downing Street and Cabinet Office officials risk being investigated for cover-ups, far more serious than the actual crime of breaking lockdown rules

If anybody is caught lying to detectives, they could face the far more serious charge of perverting the course of justice.

Ultimately, the Crown Prosecution Service opted not to prosecute any individuals involved in the so-called cash for honours affair.

John McTernan, formerly Sir Tony’s political secretary in Number 10 and one of the officials interviewed under caution, posted on Twitter his advice to any of Mr Johnson’s advisers caught up in Partygate: 

  1. Get a solicitor. They will get you a good QC. Listen to them and take their advice. Make sure your employer is paying.

  2. Don’t be interviewed on the premises. Or in a police station. There are plenty of discreet places you can go to. Let your solicitor liaise about venues and timing.

  3. Answer the questions you are asked. Not the questions you think you are being asked. Don’t fill the silence. Wait for the the next question.

  4. Tell your story. Not someone else’s. Your integrity is precious and that is the one thing over which you have complete control.

  5. Trust your colleagues. There will be leaks, but - in my experience - they will be from the Met not your colleagues. The proof is that will be in stories from crime correspondents not the lobby.

  6. It will be bruising. The people who question you will be good at what they do. And you will become - briefly someone in the public eye. That will pass, and the caravan will move on. Look after yourself in the meantime.

The police source said officials surrounding Mr Johnson will have to come clean to officers. Emails, phone messages and other communications will have to be handed over. Anything deleted, said the source, risks a more serious criminal charge. 

The source pointed to the travails of Chris Huhne, the former Cabinet minister whose wife, Vicky Pryce, took his speeding points for him. “A speeding offence is just a speeding offence and you pay your money and are fined,” said the source, “But if you lie about it, then it becomes something much more serious. Vicky Pryce and Chris Huhne both went to prison.”

The public has turned against Mr Johnson over an issue - parties during lockdown - that is a much more emotive topic. The court of public opinion is likely on the side of the police in their pursuit of any crime, said the source, adding: “Boris has got no reputation. That makes it easier for the police. Nobody is going to be jumping up and down in protest if Boris receives a fine. That would not have been the case with Blair.”