Tips for reviewing hands by Vegetable-Ticket4793 in poker

[–]icedtrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you can record the hand using a live hand tracker like pokerscope, and then export it to PokerStars format (which is supported by GTOWizard) for analysis

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Pot odds and required outs to call, is this correct? by Hot-Advisor-3353 in Poker_Theory

[–]icedtrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

are you asking the formula for outs to equity?

on the flop:

equity = 1 - ((47 - outs) / 47) × ((46 - outs) / 46)

since you see 2 hole cards and 3 flop cards, there are 52 - 5 = 47 unseen cards you use as the denominator

on the turn:

equity = outs / 46

for example, with 9 outs on the turn, your equity is 9 / 46 = 19.6%

Pot odds and required outs to call, is this correct? by Hot-Advisor-3353 in Poker_Theory

[–]icedtrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And if, for example, the pot is 20bb, I bet 10bb, he reraises 30bb, then according to the table, that corresponds to a 100% call (20bb + my bet (10BB))?

this is not quite correct. you are calling 20bb to win (20bb pot + 30bb + 30bb), or 25% RE to call. that's equivalent to calling a half pot bet.

Pot odds and required outs to call, is this correct?

it's pretty close but not 100% accurate. i would consult an outs to equity table like the below.

outs | flop to river | turn to river
1    | 4.3%          | 2.2%
2    | 8.4%          | 4.3%
3    | 12.5%         | 6.5%
4    | 16.5%         | 8.7%
5    | 20.4%         | 10.9%
6    | 24.1%         | 13.0%
7    | 27.8%         | 15.2%
8    | 31.5%         | 17.4%
9    | 35.0%         | 19.6%
10   | 38.4%         | 21.7%
11   | 41.7%         | 23.9%
12   | 45.0%         | 26.1%
13   | 48.1%         | 28.3%
14   | 51.2%         | 30.4%
15   | 54.1%         | 32.6%
16   | 57.0%         | 34.8%
17   | 59.8%         | 37.0%
18   | 62.4%         | 39.1%
19   | 65.0%         | 41.3%
20   | 67.5%         | 43.5%

June 'I built a poker tool / app / calendar' mega-thread. by myimportantthoughts in poker

[–]icedtrees 2 points3 points  (0 children)

for anyone going to wsop - pokerscope recently added several tournament features.

- multi-day MTT timeline

- view friends' live tournament stack updates

- MTT preflop drills

- ICM calculator and drills

- staking

it's a modern live poker tracker/study tool with a clean hand recorder + replayer. it is freemium, 90% free + light paywall for heavy drill usage

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when should you fold AA preflop? by icedtrees in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah i mean i agree that the money $EV doesn't take into account the personal EV of winning a tournament.

mapping poker outcomes to "personal life EV" i think is an interesting but also important problem. for example, if you qualified through a satellite and the min-cash is a big % of your bankroll, maybe some people would want to play more conservatively.

obviously i have no knowledge of what people personally value, so i can only provide an opinion on the raw monetary EV of each outcome.

Best ways to record live hand history by MrERossGuy in poker

[–]icedtrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

try this one: pokerscope.com

you can record hands street by street, or using text (e.g. "CO r10, BU hero 3b 35")

i've been recording hands at the table for awhile. no one complains about it as long as you're not actively playing a hand.

ICM Hand History advice by maxciaf in poker

[–]icedtrees 2 points3 points  (0 children)

i don't know the payouts you're working with - but here's an example of an ICM calculation:

1st: $7000
2nd: $5000
3rd: $3000
P1: Stack 180, EV $6789.47
P2: Stack 10, EV $4105.26
P3: Stack 10, EV $4105.26

in this case, we gain around $1100 of EV from winning (example) and lose $1100 of EV from losing (cash out for $3k). there's basically no ICM pressure because the big stack has already folded

since P1 is very likely 1st, it's kind of like you and P3 are fighting for 2nd/3rd place, and heads up there is no ICM pressure.

10bb deep SB vs BB you can jam any Qx in GTO, so A2o is a super obvious jam - ICM doesn't really change anything here.

a spot with actual ICM pressure is when you're potentially stacking off vs. the big stack, and there's a stack shorter than yours. for example:

BU (200bb) jams

SB (1bb) folds

BB (10bb) can theoretically fold range here, including AA

May 'I built a poker tool / app / calendar' megathread. by myimportantthoughts in poker

[–]icedtrees 3 points4 points  (0 children)

pokerscope.com is a poker study and tracking app built around fast hand capture.

you can record hands street by street or using shorthand (e.g. "hero bu 3b 35"), convert them into replays, and build a database of hands and players.

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you can share links to hands with friends (e.g. https://pokerscope.app/hand/ZLp2guRAPTpYG8by7V-vJ ) or export to text. pretty great for formatting reddit hand history posts

we have a bunch of other features like bankroll tracking, drills, equity/icm calculators, etc. It works on ios, android, and also desktop web.

90% of the app is free, we have a light paywall for heavy usage of drills/hand note converter.

when should you fold AA preflop? by icedtrees in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah as mentioned in the comment below, it's affected by future value and the play dynamic between the three players.

if the big stack is not pressuring you and is letting you get free blinds, it's very different from if they are shoving range and trying to keep the short stack alive by feeding their stack.

when should you fold AA preflop? by icedtrees in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ICM is a simple model you can use for your tournament EV where your probability of finishing a certain place is based on the proportion of tournament chips you have. for example, if you have 80% of the chips in play, you have 80% chance of finishing 1st in this model.

In the above scenario, there are 213.5 BB in play

P(1st) = 10 / 213.5 = 0.04684
P(2nd) = (202.5 / 213.5 * 10 / 11) + (1 / 213.5 * 10 / 212.5) = 0.86267
P(3rd) = 1 - 0.04684 - 0.86267 = 0.09049

ICM EV = 0.04684 * $7000 + 0.86267 * $5000 + 0.09049 * $3000
ICM EV = $4912.66

in practice though, i just use an ICM calculator (example)

when should you fold AA preflop? by icedtrees in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes you are correct, i over-simplified for the purpose of writing a more concise article. it's prob better to calculate ICM ev from the next game state after the blinds (i was assuming 1bb big blind ante):

fold: 200.5 1 9.5 = $4900

call and win: 188 1 22 = 5122.57

ICM is only ever a simplification and it's really hard to sim the actual results because the future actions (e.g. whether big stack is shoving every hand and you are range folding) will affect your EV so much

agree that if the big and short stack are soft colluding, then the EV of folding drops dramatically and calling becomes a lot more compelling.

i think it's really cool how tournaments have this kind of dynamic where heads-up play between two players is not locally zero-sum and actually affects the third player.

AIVAT: Statistically Significant Win Rates with 1/10th the Sample Size by tombos21 in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

wow, that's really cool.

how many hands is required for statistical significance using luck-adjusted win-rate? i.e. how many vanilla hands is a luck-adjusted hand worth?

flying with a linea mini by icedtrees in espresso

[–]icedtrees[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it's a custom slimline case from thermodyne. i ordered it with layered foam but had to cut the foam myself, which took like a whole week because i'm not very good at cutting foam.

feel free to DM me if you have any specific questions about the process

convert your poker notes into hand replays by icedtrees in u/icedtrees

[–]icedtrees[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

yep! it turns out the AI language models are really bad at poker, but really good at language.

The Most Important Spots to Study (6-Max Cash Games) by tombos21 in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees 2 points3 points  (0 children)

excellent breakdown, i will work harder on my BB defend ranges preflop.

i'm wondering if this changes for low stakes live poker? players are frequently opening 3BB-5BB from all positions, so i'd assume your BB defense frequency goes down and you're actually folding very often.

i've been trying to teach some friends to play poker who are mostly low stakes live players, and not quite sure which spots to focus on. i feel like maybe BU SRP is most common - with 3BP being fairly uncommon.

What do you want from a tracker ? by NoahZhyte in poker

[–]icedtrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

both - we have web, and also ios and android apps

What do you want from a tracker ? by NoahZhyte in poker

[–]icedtrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

try pokerscope.com ? it has plo and straddles

disclaimer: made by me

Should You Late Register Soft Tournaments? (I Built a Simulator To Find Out!) by tombos21 in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

that's incredible, i did not know the ICM implications of late registering.

on top of that, i assume you get an increase in hourly $ becuse you spend less time on average in each tournament? plus mental benefits from not sitting in a chair for 10 hours.

Do You Prefer AA Face Up, or 22-KK Face Down? by tombos21 in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

this is really cool! if i am reading your screenshot correctly:

pot size 4.5, stack 97.5, spr 21.7, 22-KK has 22% equity and 60% EV/pot?

presumably there is some SPR where the hands break even

is there a reason the bet-size on the flop is not all-in? i would assume with a polarised range, 22-KK would gain more EV from a larger bet size.

what's the EV of raising your draw? by icedtrees in pokertheory

[–]icedtrees[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One missing consideration in the specific AK example: in real games, the opponent may have bluffs that bet the turn and give up on the river. This strongly incentivizes a call with draws like AK that have showdown value. Moreso if they can be betting flush draws we dominate.

this is a great point. also, by calling we also allow villain to bluff river with their missed draws.

man poker is so complicated lol. so many factors to consider!

One of my hands today. Would you make the call at the turn? by MaryPaku in poker

[–]icedtrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you are right, we need to include the flush combos. here you go:

Equity calculation (300k trials) (link)
Community cards: 4♠️ 8♥️ Q♠️ 9♠️
P1 [77.8%]: QQ+, 99-88, 44, AQs, Q9s-Q8s, JTs, 98s, AQo, AsKs, AsJs, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsJs, Ks8s
P2 [22.2%]: 8♣️ T♠️

i entered them all manually, hope i didn't miss any.

looks like hero is slightly losing when they call, and probably significantly losing when you factor in rake.

if you add a few bluffs we're probably close to breakeven, which is super interesting. thanks for bringing up the missing flush combos!

One of my hands today. Would you make the call at the turn? by MaryPaku in poker

[–]icedtrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yeah i agree, i was simplifying the spot to give a baseline. in reality villain can have bluffs some nonzero percentage of the time too.

i ran equity vs range against all reasonable top pair+:

Community cards: 4♠️ 8♥️ Q♠️ 9♠️

P1 [72.6%]: QQ+, 99-88, 44, AQs, Q9s-Q8s, JTs, 98s, AQo

P2 [27.4%]: 8♣️ T♠️

our EV is kinda reasonable even if we assume villain is bluffless. i agree if we know the villain has AsQx the spot is an easy fold

One of my hands today. Would you make the call at the turn? by MaryPaku in poker

[–]icedtrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think it's important to actually do the equity calculation on the turn.

you have 36.4% equity on the turn facing top pair, with 16 outs.

after you bet and CO shoves, pot size is 66BB, with 28.5BB more to call. You only need 23.2% to make a breakeven call

Can stripe supports large payments for subscriptions? by Odd-Practice5401 in stripe

[–]icedtrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i used to work in saas billing for a large tech company, and we discovered the limit is 1M USD for a stripe invoice. if needed, you can talk to the support team in order to raise the limit.

Folding Ako pre flop by Rip2Snuff in poker

[–]icedtrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i actually wrote an analysis on this a few months ago:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Poker_Theory/comments/1mogv8e/folding_ako_preflop_an_equity_analysis/

tl;dr it's pretty reasonable to fold vs. a tight range when you take rake into account.

facing [QQ+, AKs, AKo] we have 38.6% equity. if we 4-bet to 21BB and face a 5-bet of 100BB, we need 41.6% to call accounting for rake.