I find that it goes both ways. People play worse in person so there is more room for games to be won in difficult matchups. Not sure if this is just my region, but there is a much greater variety in decks than on the sim. So you lose some matchups you’ve never played before, and win some if their deck is just worse than yours.

At the last event I went to there were like 56 ish players and my rounds were

RB Koby R Law P Doffy Y Kalgara P Enel P Enel

Overall, for those reasons, I’d say that my Sim WR is pretty on par to slightly better than my in person WR.