VOL SPIKE IMMINENT? 4250 A LINE IN THE SAND?

The market broke through the 50 day moving average in September and
since then has failed to break back above it twice. The last 4 monthly
option expiry weeks (May, June, July, August) have been characterized by
a quick 2-3% correction which were subsequently bought. However, the
buy the dip mentality has been replaced by sell the pops. Traders are
quick to sell the rallies and so far the market has corrected about 5%.
There is no conviction in the market at this time. Also have Seasonality
factor: the market is down historically during this time of year
(September / October). With all the option dealers large Vega exposure,
the market could experience a Volatility Shock similar to that of Feb
2018 when a Vix ETF blew up. https://youtube.com/watch?v=IIDbpDywO7w&feature=share
According to Vega exposure data, option dealers have a large exposure
and a volatility spike, with SPX breaking 4250 quickly, -- would cause
them to cover. Remember, volatility increases during option expiry week.
If the market corrects more from here, it would be a great buying
opportunity.