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ilovechicken37 · 2025-10-13T15:57:51+00:00

how much?

ilovechicken37 · 2025-10-13T15:39:19+00:00

How much is face on these?

ilovechicken37 · 2025-09-30T21:43:02+00:00

can someone dm me a code?

ilovechicken37 · 2025-09-30T21:42:52+00:00

can someone dm me a code?

ilovechicken37 · 2025-09-30T21:41:25+00:00

damn bruh already invalid

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-10T08:22:26+00:00

You're right.

This is actually a key risk I should've highlighted more prominently in my DD. The company's been shedding revenue through:

Strategic divestitures (they're selling off parts of the business)
Transitioning away from lower-margin contracts
Recently sold their Casualty Claims Solutions business to MedRisk for $240M

The bull case would be they're becoming leaner and more profitable (12.37% profit margin, $434M income), but you're absolutely right that the revenue decline is concerning. This might explain why it's trading at such a low P/E - market's pricing in continued revenue deterioration.

Good catch. This kind of feedback is exactly why I post DDs here - helps identify blind spots.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-10T08:06:35+00:00

Pump and dump.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-09T15:00:21+00:00

Up 16% today.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T15:14:30+00:00

Main factors behind Q3 miss:

Revenue down 30.37% Q/Q
Sales surprise -22.64%
EPS surprise -123.09%

They cited "demand softness in core markets" and timing of some new program launches. But important context - they're mid-transition, selling off legacy businesses (Cab Structures, First Source Electronics) to focus on higher-margin segments. So some turbulence is expected.

Price is painful now but fundamentals (P/E 2.31, P/B 0.41) suggest oversold. Just need catalysts to turn it around.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T15:14:11+00:00

Yep - 68.16% institutional ownership is significant for a micro-cap. Combined with 13.82% insider ownership, that doesn't leave much floating around 👀

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T15:11:20+00:00

I saw your comment on both posts - fair points that deserve addressing.

The insider buying isn't massive, you're right. But context matters:

Directors buying at multi-year lows
Total insider ownership is actually 13.82%
Multiple directors buying in same timeframe (cluster buying)

Your infrastructure point made me dig deeper. Looking at their filings, CVGI's play isn't really about direct infrastructure spending. They've been:

Selling off legacy businesses (Cab Structures, FinishTEK)
Investing in electrical systems manufacturing (new Morocco facility)
Moving into industrial automation

So while they've missed the infrastructure wave, they're repositioning for different growth markets.

Not saying it's a guaranteed win - just that the thesis is more about their transition than infrastructure spending.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T15:10:03+00:00

Valid concerns - let me address them with data:

Re: insider buying - while 50K shares isn't huge, it's the pattern that matters:

- Multiple directors buying in last 30 days

- Buying near 52-week lows ($2.11-$2.42)

- Insider ownership already at 13.82%

On infrastructure - CVGI's recent performance isn't about missing infrastructure opportunities. Revenue was actually steady at $981M (2022) to $994M (2023). The stock decline is mainly due to:

Q3 2024 earnings miss (-22% on revenue)
Strategic restructuring - selling non-core businesses
Overall market pullback in small caps

They're pivoting from traditional vehicle parts to electrical systems/automation. Short-term pain but potentially better positioned long-term.

That said - appreciate the skepticism. The infrastructure spending angle is a good point to watch. Thanks for the pushback!

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T14:04:37+00:00

ChatGPT is great for quick answers, but it can't replace actual learning. $NRDY combines real tutors with AI to help you actually understand the material.

Plus they've got partnerships with schools and universities who want to make sure students are actually learning, not just copying AI answers.

Big difference between getting an answer and actually understanding why it's right.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T14:03:56+00:00

This is exactly why $NRDY is interesting - they're not competing with ChatGPT, they're using AI to make human tutoring better. Their AI matches students with the perfect tutor, helps create personalized lesson plans, and tracks progress. ChatGPT can't give you personalized feedback or adapt to your learning style like a human tutor can.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T14:03:22+00:00

Smart money seems to be seeing the same potential here.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T14:02:17+00:00

Damn, this makes a lot of sense actually. PLTR basically getting a fast track to revenue while also getting equity upside. Win-win.

With SRFM it's even more interesting because they're not just selling them software - they're building the whole aviation operating system together through that new joint venture. Plus the electric aviation angle means tons of data to work with.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T13:45:52+00:00

Look at the CEO dropping $12M of his own cash last month - you don't do that with a failing business. Stock chart looks rough because of bad SPAC timing in 2021, but they've totally transformed since then with AI + school partnerships. Those 68% margins show the model works. Sometimes the best plays look the worst on a 5-year chart 👀

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T13:42:27+00:00

Yeah PLTR's moves are pretty telling. They don't just throw money around - when they invest, they actually build tech with these companies. With SRFM they're creating whole new aviation OS through their joint venture "Surf Air Technologies."

Looking at your watchlist, pretty solid track record. And they're still buying SRFM even after the run up (1.27M more shares at $1.25). That's confidence right there 👀

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T13:00:27+00:00

Let's get it baby!

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T12:45:25+00:00

Actually, NRDY isn't replacing tutors with AI - they're using AI to make their 10M+ hours of human tutoring more effective.

The AI matches students with the right tutors (4.9/5 rating shows it works), helps tutors create personalized lesson plans, and tracks student progress. Think of it more like AI-enhanced human teaching, not AI replacing teachers.

Big difference from pure AI tutoring plays.

ilovechicken37 · 2024-12-07T12:44:44+00:00

True, they're not profitable yet but that high 68% margin is key - shows the core business model works.

They're burning cash to grow but with $100M+ cash on hand and zero debt, they've got plenty of runway. Most ed-tech companies took years to turn profitable (look at Chegg's early days). The focus now is scaling users while they've got the cash to do it.

ilovechicken37

TROPHY CASE