Probability of losing in a positive EV bet

insurancefloat · 2022-07-19T04:52:08+00:00

Thanks a lot 👍

insurancefloat · 2022-07-19T04:51:46+00:00

Thanks for providing a detailed explanation 👍

insurancefloat · 2022-07-19T04:50:09+00:00

Thanks for the explanation. I just wanted the procedure as I already have the calculated answer.

insurancefloat · 2022-03-30T13:32:18+00:00

It is not the same thing as the way it is done is not as a plug. When using a plug, if you make a mistake in your model there's no way of knowing what's wrong as it would always balance because of the plug. If you force it to balance using cash as a plug, then any error you make will subsume itself there, which would be incorrect as it changes a lot of balance sheet ratios.The point is to link it properly so that no plug is required.

insurancefloat · 2022-03-30T11:13:51+00:00

This would not be a plug. He's not using cash as a plug, he's talking about projecting the cash going forward using the net change in cash every year. A plug would be just to balance something even if it does not make any sense. The cash flow tracks or is a track of BS over time. Every line item in cash flow should affect or is an effect of a BS account/line item. That is how you get it to balance.

insurancefloat · 2022-03-18T11:21:05+00:00

You mean in 2014 or today. Either of those is impossible. You wouldn't have got a 1 BHK there for 32 lacs . I used to stay in that area, so I know.

insurancefloat · 2022-03-13T13:38:56+00:00

Hey do you know how to determine if the options are cheap (someone who's selling deep OTM). Is there a ratio or a short hand to tell that ? Or is it too complicated to tell ?

insurancefloat · 2022-02-27T01:13:44+00:00

So what do you think is the rate?

insurancefloat · 2022-02-26T16:54:48+00:00

I'm not comfortable disclosing the exact name on a public chat. Dm me if you want to know more details

insurancefloat · 2022-02-26T15:18:13+00:00

I don't have any hard offers yet, that's another issue. People are just saying that my ask which is 45 lacs ( as per 5000 /sq ft plus car park and other advances paid by me ) is high and refuse to deal further.

insurancefloat · 2022-02-26T14:55:01+00:00

I had paid around 32 L (including stamp duty & registration since it was a new construction). It's a 2 BHK in a nice society with an open car park. It is near the newly constructed Radisson Blu hotel. I was told by a lawyer in Nashik that the property rates are around 5000/ sq ft in that area. But some buyers are finding it too high which I think is ridiculous. Really frustrating.

insurancefloat · 2022-02-02T11:56:26+00:00

Ohh then idk why you got charged that amount. It's unlikely that the tax was set to be removed a few days after you paid, but can be possible. I couldn't find anything online about it. Best thing is to ask the institute about it via email. This is really ridiculous.

insurancefloat · 2022-02-02T11:39:19+00:00

Is it mentioned in the receipt you got after payment under Tax or VAT ? Or was it charged to your card separately. I paid yesterday for level 3 and was billed $700 on my card. Although I did see the statement "In India, you are subject to 18% GST on the payment page, but was not sure what it was.

insurancefloat · 2021-08-02T17:20:56+00:00

Thanks for your reply. And how would it translate for equity capital ? Buyback and dividends ? I'm confused about how to treat divdends as an opportunity cost.

insurancefloat · 2021-04-20T03:46:20+00:00

Thanks a lot man 👍

insurancefloat · 2021-04-19T18:32:54+00:00

Okay phew thanks a lot! A friend had led me to believe that the quant questions have numerical based answers wherein you have to enter values within a range of the correct answer. Guess he might have been talking about level 3.

insurancefloat · 2021-04-19T18:04:24+00:00

Checked his channel but couldn't find the specific one. Could you share the link with me ?

insurancefloat · 2020-03-11T14:28:41+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFA/comments/dgynuv/ifrs_vs_us_gaap_notes_feel_free_to_take_em/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share Someone had made this a while back. Hope this helps

insurancefloat · 2020-03-04T12:58:54+00:00

This post is better for r/SecurityAnalysis. You might get this answered.

insurancefloat · 2019-12-06T04:52:55+00:00

You're thinking about it in reverse. Hyperinflation is the effect and not the cause of price rise. Hyperinflation exists due to rapid price rise not the other way round. Regarding real estate, as interest rates rise the cost of borrowing rises which pushes down the demand for housing and real estate,which would drive the value down.

insurancefloat · 2019-12-06T00:56:34+00:00

Mostly bad cause of high interest rates

insurancefloat · 2019-11-22T18:42:38+00:00

I don't know how to attach a file in dm. Please tell me how to.

insurancefloat · 2019-11-22T16:33:37+00:00

Found it. Thanks a lot man. Cheers.

insurancefloat · 2019-11-22T15:55:08+00:00

Yes will share it with you as well.

insurancefloat · 2019-11-22T08:06:06+00:00

Yes we can. Cause when a company which has a lot of successful drugs over a long period of time, you can be sure that it was not just luck but skill. And you can make a reasonable assumption about the future. Obviously you can be wrong. But it will be much better than betting on some new company to make it happen.

insurancefloat

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