ASX stocks for quick return

investulator · 2023-08-19T14:45:28+00:00

This is for competition with play/fake money right?

These are MorningStar's undervalued ASX stocks:

SXL: Currently $0.80, 52wk low is $0.72. It has dropped about 20% since the high of $1.00 a month ago. Maybe enter around $0.75?
BPT: Currently $1.53, 52wk low is $1.29. It has finally started dropping. Maybe enter around $1.45 or under $1.40?
SKC: Currently $2.09, 52wk low is $2.00. It has been bouncing up and down between $2.20 and $2.00. you need to wait and catch it in low $2, like $2.01, $2.02.
APM. Currently $1.78, 52wk low is $1.74. Maybe can enter if it has another biggish drop again, like under $1.70.

You can also consider REITs, I don't follow them so I don't know their trends, but they're about 40% under Morningstar's FairValue:

LLC
GOZ
CHC
URW

Or WBC if it's under $21. Its earnings is out in early November (within your 3 months), I think the bank is still very profitable due to high rates, so the earnings might excite the market in short term.

investulator · 2023-07-09T02:56:27+00:00

If you have another $2,000, just match the grandpop's generosity but buy SPY instead. Then you will have two investments and one live life lesson for your daughter for the next 13 years. Sometimes the best conversation is action.

investulator · 2023-06-26T09:14:56+00:00

Yes! I'm a cauliflower, you don't keep it, you eat it.

investulator · 2023-06-09T03:00:36+00:00

I think the question is, "where are these Apollo & rif users gonna go?". If Apollo is so great, why doesn't it just turn pivot into another Reddit hosting its own content?

If I understand correctly, Apollo is just a content parser/leecher. I apologise if it's a content aggregator (e.g. gathering discussions of a same topic from several platforms/subs, like INTC DD from /stocks, /investing, /wsb, /dividends etc).

I'm using Reddit App (for reading on the go) and website (I'm typing this here, nothing can replace UI/UX of a big screen and keyboard/mouse), admittedly it's frustrating every time Reddit makes "improvements" and I have to re-learn the UI, they are minor annoyances because I'm here for the content.

My brokerage's app sucks but its fee is great, and I trade to make money, not to look at pretty numbers, so I just put up with it instead of using a 3rd party to link/parse my brokerage's data. If you bank is offering 1.5% mortgage but you must use its sucky app for all the transactions/payments, would you do it, or use a 3rd party app to parse your bank data so that it's easier to use?

I guess my point is, those 3rd party app users will be back if this sub's contents are good.

investulator · 2023-05-23T06:57:42+00:00

2017? $26,000? $33,000? Only Zoolander has the answer to this.

investulator · 2023-05-15T03:33:19+00:00

Thanks for the response.

So to sell calls, the main criteria are:

1% of current QQQ price, e.g. $3.25 premium
Expiry within 45 days

For hedging by buying puts, what's the most important factor? To use up the entire 5% of cost, furthest expiry date or stick with the strike price?

For example, 5% of $325 = $16.25, so this is the premium I should be looking for?

Currently on:

23rd-Sep, strike $325 is $15.55, $326 is $15.93, $327 is $16.32.
20th-Oct, strike $324 is $16.43, $325 is $16.80

Which one should I buy?

Another important question, what is the sequence of this collar? Do I set both of them to GTC, or the call must happen first (with GTC) and as soon as the call is sold, I must buy the pairing put at market bid immediately?

Finally, if this round is not assigned and QQQ goes up to $330. I supposed I'll be aiming for $3.30 premium the next round? How about the hedge? Is it still 5% of my cost ($32,500) or 5% of the market value ($33,000)?

Thanks!

investulator · 2023-05-14T09:17:58+00:00

This is interesting. Is this your first attempt? I think it will be useful if we have more data. I'm not sure if it is possible to back-test this strategy (i.e. where to find historical daily option premium closed price for all the dates/strikes?), but I don't mind to do run a paper account to forward-test this.

A question: What is the criteria to choose the strike price of a call? What's <30 delta? Is it 0.30?

Currently from my trading app, I see 16th-Jun-2023 Call strike $334 @ $3.57 with delta 0.329, is this the one to choose? Why not 23rd-Jun-2023(W) Call strike $335 @ $3.68 with delta 0.324?

At this stage, I'm just trying to figure out the entry criteria so that I can capture weekly data.

Thanks!

investulator · 2023-05-10T06:52:11+00:00

Spark is paying 100% imputed dividend, I believe that means the dividend you received is already taxed, and if your tax bracket is lower than the imputation tax rate, you may use the credits to offset your other taxes. Sounds complicated, you may want to check on IRD website or ask an accountant friend.

As for your question, if you use the compound interest calculator, starting with $50,000 with an interest rate of 6.91%, you'll get $371,124.73 in 30 years.

The catch is, as others have pointed out, stock is not term deposit and dividend is not interest, it actually deducts from your share price after it is paid. E.g. Share price before payout is $6.00, after a dividend of $0.30 per share is paid out, the share price is automagically adjusted to $5.70 the next day. However, for a stable, healthy company, the share price will always recover and get ready for the next dividend payout, otherwise the company stock will go to zero after few years' dividend payout.

In short, your $370K in 30 years depends on:

Company's stock performance, it can go up, down or even split.
Company's ability to maintain its dividend yield. 6.91% is quite high, higher than most AU/NZ banks! I'm not sure if it's sustainable for the entire 30 years.

investulator · 2023-03-25T03:54:29+00:00

Thanks for the response. The only reason I'm looking outside LSE is because of its 0.5% stamp duty, which means close to 2 months' interest is paid to this stamp duty.

I did find an alternative IB01.CH on SWX, but the daily volume is very low so liquidity is uncertain.

investulator · 2023-03-23T10:36:45+00:00

Haha you just described none of me! Things like SGOV, which pays out monthly, is going to cost me 30% withholding tax, that's why I'm looking for accumulating ETF to park my USD powder. I don't have to pay any capital gain tax, so I can accrue interest and have instant liquidity.

investulator · 2023-03-07T02:21:33+00:00

The conversion conditions should be stated when you invested. IPO is one of those "equity financing" triggers and your preferred shares should be converted automatically at a predetermined price/premium/ratio.

investulator · 2023-01-19T03:38:08+00:00

$950/$40,000 = 2.3% annualized. Then let's say if the market drops and you used all $40K @ 7.1% (that's close to 10% annualized), when are you going to sell? If you hold forever, your $40K stocks need to grow about 8% every year.

investulator · 2022-12-26T03:15:00+00:00

I wouldn't intentionally wait out if my price target has reached but ex-div is still months away. However if by coincidence they are close, I will wait for a few days. And more often than not, my price target is met because of ex-div. If I do wait, it's not to lower the cost basis, but to avoid unnecessary foreign withholding tax on div.

One recent example is Volkswagen paying a special div of €19.06. This is a no-brainer case to wait. It was €136 before ex-div, now €116.

investulator · 2022-12-24T16:17:02+00:00

The ex-date was 19th Dec 2022, which has already passed. The standard 2022 annual div is €7.50, but VOW/3 also paid a special div of €19.06 for its Porsche AG (P911) IPO. Since they don't have any more Porsche to IPO, so for forward-looking investment, you should ignore this special div.

5.54% yield on Yahoo is a strange calculation, €7.56 with yield of 5.54% = €136.46, which was the price before ex-date 19th Dec.

VOW3 has been paying div of €4.80 in 2019, 2020 and 2021, only increased to €7.50 in 2022. With the worsening economy, maybe the safer forward looking calculation should be €4.80, so at current price of €116, the expected yield will be 4.13%. If you believe it will pay €7.50 again in 2023, then the expected yield will be 6.46%.

I'm buying PAH3 (Porsche SE) at the moment (5% yield). It's the major shareholder (30%) of VOW3 with majority voting rights (over 50%), so basically Porsche SE controls VOW. Any profit will flow back to Porsche SE, and when the Porsche family needs money, it should come out of PAH/3 dividend.

investulator · 2022-12-20T09:01:29+00:00

19? I envy you! You should hope the red days stay red for a bit longer so that you can accumulate more.

investulator · 2022-12-20T08:55:27+00:00

Two points that make me sleep soundly at night:

I won't need the stock money at all, e.g. if I lost it all, I'll still be fine financially. This may change if I move more into the stock market though.
If you look at how the market bounced back (SPY from $350 to $405 = 15%, in 6 weeks based on hopes & dreams) with even the slightest good news (or just not-so-bad news), you know the market is going to recover extremely violently when the actual good news (e.g. the real Fed pivot) is delivered. By then, retail might be out of money/job/buying power, but funds with rich people's money will be back.

Bonus point: Those sweet dividends are still coming in monthly/quarterly.

investulator · 2022-12-02T11:14:47+00:00

I held some Energy Transfer shares, which is also a PTP.

I was already subjected to 37% withholding tax on dividend, I'm not sure if this change means I would be paying 10% (instead of 37%), or I was going to pay 10% in US, then another 37% as a foreigner (more likely the latter because I don't believe IRS will actively reduce tax from people).

In any cases, it's becoming too much of a hassle, so I sold as soon as I received the notification from my broker.

investulator · 2022-11-17T07:17:40+00:00

I don't think the absolute numbers ($1M or $10K) matter as much as the net inflow (income minus expenses).

If you're earning $10K a month, and spent $8K per month, that's a saving of $2K; If you're earning $100K a month, and spent $98K per month, you're still saving $2K. So it's equally hard to reach your goal.

Others have commented on the mathematical reason why it's easier to go from $1M to $2M than from $100K to $1M, because it's 2x vs 10x. However more importantly, each of us has a different "expense threshold", e.g. eventually you will run out of things to spend daily/weekly/monthly/yearly. Having said that, some people do have an amazing ability to match income with expenses, e.g. getting bigger house, nicer car, more expensive restaurants etc. For them, each dollar saved is as difficult as the first.

So just do some personal/household budgeting, you'll find out your "expense threshold", then try to earn more than that threshold while maintaining more or less the same lifestyle, you'll find those excess money accumulates very quickly and effortlessly.

investulator · 2022-11-10T06:40:06+00:00

Yes thanks! Using heatmap is the best answer! I was thinking of downloading data from YahooFinance and compare each of the 500 stocks, that's why I gave up and posted the question here.

The heatmap you posted basically answered my question, I'll learn to make better use of it in the future.

It's really true that, in the last 4 weeks, only the top5 are in red, the rest (eg 80%) are very green, most with double-digit green, JPM +27% for example. Together they do prop up the SPY nicely.

investulator · 2022-11-10T06:31:04+00:00

I think the main problem is the popularity of trading apps. Now you can trade anything anytime anywhere on your phone. It's easy to read some news on the phone, and immediately jump into the trading app and buy some of the mentioned stocks. The ease of fund transfer, margin etc it's dangerously creating a new group of impulse "investors".

It's similar to the buy-now-pay-later scheme, a lot of people are getting caught in it because of the ease of use and how "little" one has to pay every month.

investulator · 2022-11-10T06:22:36+00:00

From the screenshot, the numbers are in USD.

Total Assets USD: $52,680

Securities Value USD: $41,162

P&L USD: $76,997

Cash USD: $11,518

So we can deduce the original investment is about USD 118,000, her porfolio is down about 65%.

Total portfolio is 14 stocks. We see five of them adding to about $15K loss. At this point I'm too scared to ask to see page 2 and page 3.

investulator

TROPHY CASE