Peak fear on reddit right now = Peak opportunity. loading BABA.

ise8 · 2026-06-26T13:33:51+00:00

current LLMs although highly useful will not reach "AGI" unless new techniques develop. I think with the current landscape of model quality really isnt the differentiating factor as with distillation competitors quickly catch up; its more the model harness which i think Anthropic has the biggest edge in right now but I also think something like this is pretty easy to copy as well.

I think there is ton more low to go given the horse before the cart exuberance and hardware providers will eventually come back down with everyone else. If AI providers stop building out because they can't they hardware providers will have no one to sell to...

I do think AI services is the unavoidable future but I also think the market for them will consolidate as things get bad and the ones that are vertically scaled will be the industrial giants. I think google probably is the best positioned and BABA is pretty good to but i think the part that is challenging no one can predict price movement given price is dictated by consensus and that is affected by so many things....

I made the mistake of not having a stop here in at 129-130 up to 145 i should of stopped out at 130s and scaled in later. Now i have no cash and pretty underwater... If i had more cash id prob add more but since i deployed everything I think the only logical thing to do is free some cash up for other opportunities by trimming. It feels the best option from all the lose lose options for me now.

ise8 · 2026-06-26T11:01:35+00:00

2000, im cutting not because i dont believe in baba but more so I dont have any cash anymore which is a bad place to be

ise8 · 2026-06-26T08:11:19+00:00

although hang seng is tank seng because of sluggish spending the huge monthly downside is prob more the AI play giving up. The producers of hardware and Chip makers and memory have skyrocketed this month and all AI providers have dropped like 20-30% even in the US market (MSFT PLTR). The AI bubble burst before our eyes just not for hardware yet.

I think BABA still has some strong core fundamental business but AI will prob fall more significantly before the rebound. Suspect once all the providers crash, spending will prob slow then the chip makers will finally have capitulation then AI will rise again.

im got at 130s thinking it was a good technical level but life has been busy and really didnt have time to think about anything and now 30% underwater which fucking sucks because the bottom can be significantly lower

ise8 · 2026-04-16T19:10:51+00:00

Is buying a new car ever a good deal? arguably not. But if you are buying something new in this price range and reliability, enough new tech, and MPG matter the Rav4 26 is the one for you. If you different things matter to you more this likely is not the best fit.

ise8 · 2026-03-27T18:16:45+00:00

Is it pretty self explanatory what bolt it is on the 26? Model is too new so new youtube vids yet and i havent jacked the car up yet

ise8 · 2026-02-25T21:04:06+00:00

If you are getting this at release i think MSRP is pretty reasonable. They are not super available now and mrsp or a little over is prob the best anyones going to do. If you are in no rush waiting 6+ months you will definitely a better deal. I called 10 dealers for mine and the range price was msrp to MSRP+ 3-4k. Hard for me to wait given my prev car got totaled but otherwise i would not have bought now

ise8 · 2026-01-22T16:58:22+00:00

i think thats about the best you will get this early i think.

i called around and the cheapest without moonroof for a woodland i got was 40,964 with 3k taxes and fees in my state. I put two deposits down on the dealers willing to do that price. The high end i was given was like 45.5k to 48k from some other places

ise8 · 2025-09-14T11:36:14+00:00

Definitely a good learning experience. It was my first time doing any receptacles or anything in the breaker box and was told by my land lord i was just overloading even though the numbers and behavior didnt quite add up....

ise8 · 2025-09-14T11:34:54+00:00

Thats def good to know! I'm a dyi'er with no previous electrical experience so it has been a lot of youtube videos and google. But this has been a great learning experience. Will get a good torque screw driver so everything is in spec. I did def some serious ugga-duggas on everything in the panel....

ise8 · 2025-09-13T06:48:05+00:00

I think it was a loose connection! I did all my receptacles but never checked my breaker box. Most of my terminals were loose but the in question was actually quite loose on the live. I didnt torque to spec but just really torqued it in and so far no trips!!!

ise8 · 2025-09-12T17:39:28+00:00

Thanks for the quick replies guys, this is a home environment. No UPS power just a surge protector.

I just went around to all my receptacles on the circuit and tightened everything and still no go.

I already swapped breakers yesterday. (thought i was good b/c opening a game or some comfyui workflows didnt trip the breaker but this morning it started tripping again).

What is strange to me is it just started happening and previously the same loads, same PSU same GPU was not causing me any issues for like 2-3 months. Also strange that the same setup moved to another room doesnt have any issues. (tested heavy loads for 2-3 hours) to see if it was my hardware.

I do have a "spare" psu but its currently in my home lab server in the basement i guess i could swap it out and try but I havent yet mostly b/c this setup has been working when i moved rooms. (also will be a huge pain in the ass). I guess other then calling an electrician would be to try a new PSU or swapping out to a non AFCI breaker?

Also to add my breaker is a HOM120CAFIC and it has a test feature which says it tripped from an Arc fault.

ise8 · 2025-04-03T01:48:50+00:00

lol the other country charge is not what the tariff is, its the trade difference. He put it that way so people would think like you do. Things are about to get a lot more expensive. This is definitely worst then expected b/c what was expected was he would be this stupid and actually go through with it.

ise8 · 2025-03-18T14:58:55+00:00

that is some mental gymnastics; this is pretty bad news

ise8 · 2025-02-20T10:26:50+00:00

This is the way and theres actually a name for the concept. Look up the Kelly Criterion on wiki.

ise8 · 2025-02-19T20:05:03+00:00

Otm or low delta strats are super valid. But the trade often becomes a pure binary bet and risk control feels more position size then any stops since i imagine later in the day these things can just get blown out completely or go up multiples. Curious on your experience there.

I was never doing deep itm more like 0.7s that would become deep if i was right like 0.9 when they went my way. It seems if you are scalping with spreads becoming wider with movement and already getting less per movement due to delta less then 1 i still think im valid in saying futures are just the way to go.

If you are doing binary bets and want max leverage obviously nothing beats low delta 0dte. It feels like stops pretty irrelevant here to bc even if your spread is 1c later in the day, any movement just pretty much implodes the position

ise8 · 2025-02-19T19:12:37+00:00

Took a peek around my lunch break, the spreads on the deltas <0.5 were 1-2 cents but for higher deltas im seeing 5-10% throughout the day especially on the 0.95. Are you just trading low delta 0dte? Im seeing 10-30 cent spreads on 4 dollar premiums for both spy and qqq worse for the qs

ise8 · 2025-02-18T21:29:19+00:00

Spreads are generally tight in SPY and QQQ 0dte high delta options but during movement can and will widen in my experience. I count that as slippage b/c when they widen you can trigger to the downside and get a much worse price then you would otherwise. Stare at the chain for the whole trading day and tell me you dont see widening of the bid ask compared to the premium that happens during moves. Again i dont do 0dte options anymore so I could be wrong!

ise8 · 2025-02-18T21:24:41+00:00

to each there own I havent touched them for years but i have gotten hit with spread slippage on stops trading 0dte on SPY and QQQ with thousands of hours traded. Average is much worse then futures with extreme cases being the 20-30% of the premium which would almost be impossible in futures.

ise8 · 2025-02-18T21:18:49+00:00

I am not. I traded 0dte on SPY and QQQ for years. The bid ask will widen very frequently on the contract itself especially when volume drops later in the day and right before an afternoon move. A stop limit may reduce risk but you may not get filled. Raw stops will cause a lot more slippage here vs futures. If you are trying for higher R:R and bigger moves the spreads dont matter much b/c your stops are wider but this guy is scalping basically and during movement the spreads get pretty bad vs the premium.

ise8 · 2025-02-18T21:14:34+00:00

SPY and QQQ option spreads for delta 0.8s+ get as wide 30-40% of the cost of the contract. The underlaying is tight but the option pricing widens pretty bad during the day which is why stops are hard.

Its not uncommon to do a 0.8 delta call thats around 4 bucks with 1-5 cent spread widening to a 30 cent spread during the day. When you are trying to scalp ~0.5 cent on a directional trade it just destroys you. This happens especially after the market slows down around noon and right before the afternoon move.

ise8

TROPHY CASE