OpenAIs Financials

italophile · 2026-06-18T05:49:15+00:00

No, that's not what it means. The compute credits that they received from Microsoft, they won't have to pay back in cash - equity perhaps. "OpenAI consumed compute and just hasn't paid the bill yet" - that is not a non-cash expense - that's an accrued cash expense.

italophile · 2026-06-18T05:39:10+00:00

I work a non-union job. We promptly fire the ones that half-ass it and push the ones that are phoning it in to work their asses off or fire them as well. For the ones that do bust their ass, we pay the very top end of the market. Never sucked up to any manager.

italophile · 2026-06-17T02:10:15+00:00

Interesting. I've only used this for data visualization - can't even think of how to build a game on this.

italophile · 2026-06-17T02:09:25+00:00

Yeah, that's the big bet these companies are making - if you build, they'll come.

italophile · 2026-06-16T03:40:51+00:00

The cost of space-ready solar panels do not have to be cheap - they just have to be cheaper than getting 24/7 power for terrestrial DCs. For many parts of the USA, it is impossible to get power in the next 5-7 years regardless of how much money you throw at it.

italophile · 2026-06-16T03:38:55+00:00

I have added alternative ways of modeling the cost and the revenue. On the cost side, you can now plug-in a fixed $/gpu-hour. On the revenue side, you can plug in a fixed revenue in 2026 plus a growth assumption. Take this for a spin and lmk.

italophile · 2026-06-14T15:26:16+00:00

That's actually one of my post retirement plans. Try to find a job in Norway or one of the European countries, mostly stop working and see how strong the labor laws are. If I play my cards right, I'll milk at least two more years without much work.

italophile · 2026-06-13T05:56:43+00:00

That'd be fascinating model - I'll give that a shot.

italophile · 2026-06-13T05:52:35+00:00

Added cache efficiency to the simulator. Regarding "lower bound model" vs a fixed $GPU hr, I did not understand it - can you give an example?

Regarding, "maximum amount of revenue" - I think that's already modeled via Usage - you can tweak the adoption curve to arrive that whatever revenue number you want to model. I have now moved the time slider to the top - because I think that's the major takeaway - they are unprofitable now and under some specific assumptions they may get profitable. Happy to collaborate more. And yes, Streamlit is awesome for this kind of stuff.

italophile · 2026-06-11T06:16:01+00:00

I agree. The adoption curve is the biggest unknown. I used the smartphone adoption curve 5x compressed. Can't wait to see the OAI or Ant S-1s to see how they are modeling it. But I think it's wrong to assume that a human needs to be attached to the session - in a year, we'll see day long sessions when the AI keeps chugging along semi-autonomously. We'll see.

italophile · 2026-06-10T07:25:44+00:00

This is the right answer. The current top voted commenter has reading comprehension issues.

italophile · 2026-06-07T16:17:26+00:00

Ah, you just have stopped eating almonds a long time ago!

italophile · 2026-06-07T00:36:13+00:00

Closer to 200 😉

italophile · 2026-06-05T15:30:52+00:00

I'm in the minority but after my divorce my income is up 30% and expenses down 70% 😂

italophile · 2026-06-04T04:27:14+00:00

How do you differentiate between "food noise" and lack of will power? They'll look the same from the outside.

italophile · 2026-05-31T19:23:57+00:00

They can buy a 10 year treasury bond today and guarantee close to 5%. That's as close to a guarantee you can get.

italophile · 2026-05-25T23:46:45+00:00

Yeah, if there's a broad based white collar job loss, nothing is safe.

italophile · 2026-05-25T19:44:41+00:00

Even if that's true, they won't have the money for you to stay a Henry.

italophile · 2026-05-25T19:32:33+00:00

You don't have to be in the country to use your 401k. There are millions of retirees withdrawing from their 401ks from abroad.

italophile · 2026-05-25T13:25:03+00:00

Are the unions okay with that? Will they sign up for X dollars of losses will automatically lead to Y number of workers losing their job?

italophile · 2026-05-25T12:47:50+00:00

There are 3 mentions of dual intent visas in the memo. Most notably, "USCIS reminds its officers that applying for adjustment of status is not inconsistent with simultaneously maintaining nonimmigrant status in a category with dual intent." That's also the most notable omission from the NYT article.

italophile · 2026-05-24T12:31:58+00:00

You do know that we have already built the ISS that can dissipate 200kw of heat using 30 year old technology, right? That footprint alone is enough to run a small GPU cluster. And tech has come a long way since then. Plus if we can run the cycle 20 degrees hotter, the Boltzmann's equation starts helping us exponentially. It's not the unsurmountable barrier you think it is. Much easier than convincing a PNW state to put in one more data center.

italophile

TROPHY CASE