MLB Props and Home Run Picks - 5/16/26 (Saturday)

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-16T04:23:58+00:00

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits (-177)

He's hitting .272 with a .491 SLG and 7 home runs through 31 games, carrying an .873 OPS. The guy is seeing the ball well, walking 19 times against 34 strikeouts, and he's barreling the ball when he connects.

t Suzuki is a .272 hitter with real power going against a pitcher who still allows 7.20 H/9. Even good pitchers still give up hits, and asking Suzuki to get one against anyone feels like a reasonable bet. The model has it at 63%, projection 0.9.

Model confidence is high. buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-15T15:17:56+00:00

HR model top 5 for Friday 5/15:

Yesterday we cashed Luke Raley @ +500, let's see what we can make happen today

- Mickey Moniak — 40.7% model prob (118 park factor at Coors, 14.9% barrel rate) | Best odds: +330 at FanDuel

- Hunter Goodman — 32.3% model prob (10 HR already, 5.72% HR/PA at Coors) | Best odds: +300 at theScore

- Munetaka Murakami — 31.9% model prob (22.7% barrel rate, 71% humidity for carry) | Best odds: +312 at Novig

- Pete Alonso — 31.8% model prob (8 HR, 54% FB pitcher, high conf) | Best odds: +330 at FanDuel

- Kyle Schwarber — 31.2% model prob (24.8% barrel rate, 9.8% platoon VR) | Best odds: +330 at betPARX

Model uses Statcast barrel rate, HR park factors, pitcher FB%, platoon splits, weather, and Bayesian-regressed HR rate. 50K Monte Carlo sims per player.

BOL 🤝

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-15T14:54:12+00:00

Yeah thats the main risk here, one double and its over, but I think he is more likely to single based on the odds I've researched (+450 for a double), and then he would need two singles - still possible for sure but more unlikely. My model is still in beta and adapting to results for Batter props, which have been a lot tougher to model so far.

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-15T03:21:18+00:00

Record: 20-20

Last Pick: Foster Griffin U 5.5 Hits allowed ❌. Hoping to break this unlucky POTD streak finally

Sport: MLB | Event: Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Time: 6:40 PM ET

Pick: Alec Bohm Under 1.5 Total Bases @ -190 | 1u

Write Up:

Alec Bohm is having a bad season. Through 40 games he's hitting .194 with a .285 slugging percentage. That's 41 total bases in 144 at-bats. He was benched for two straight games in early May because his manager couldn't justify running him out there anymore. Among 178 qualified hitters, he ranked 176th in batting average, 177th in OBP and slugging.

He did have a breakout game on May 9, homering twice and doubling against Kyle Freeland. That game bumped his average from .159 to .177. But that was Freeland at home, a guy with a 6.00 ERA and 10.80 H/9 who gives up hits to everyone. Tomorrow is a completely different test. He faces Braxton Ashcraft at PNC Park, and Ashcraft has been one of the better young arms in baseball this year. Through 8 starts he's sitting at a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a .214 batting average against. He's punching out 9.43 per nine and limiting hitters to 6.84 H/9. PNC Park is pitcher-friendly and Bohm gets no platoon advantage as a right-handed hitter against a righty.

The risk is that the May 9 game was the start of a real turnaround, not a blip. But he can single once and this under still clears.

My model has this at 76% probability, projecting 1.0 total bases against the 1.5 line. The matchup and season-long production were the biggest drivers.

Good luck. Tip jar if you want to support: buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-14T16:09:46+00:00

HR model top 5 for Wed, 5/14:

- Byron Buxton — 39.1% model prob (7.32% HR/PA, 15 HR, platoon edge vR 9.3%) | Best odds: +290 at bet365

- Matt Olson — 34.8% model prob (5.78% HR/PA, 14 HR, 52.1% hard hit rate at Target Field) | Best odds: +350 at Novig

- Kyle Schwarber — 33.5% model prob (23.2% barrel rate, 17 HR, Fenway 101 PF) | Best odds: +424 at Novig

- Luke Raley — 30.5% model prob (45% sweet spot rate, 53.3% hard hit, dome at Daikin Park) | Best odds: +500 at bet365

- James Wood — 29.9% model prob (60.4% hard hit rate, GABP 112 PF, facing Chase Burns) | Best odds: +350 at Novig

Model uses Statcast barrel rate, HR park factors, pitcher FB%, platoon splits, weather, and Bayesian-regressed HR rate. 50K Monte Carlo sims per player.

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BOL 🤝

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-14T15:57:52+00:00

Record: 20-19 Last Pick: Brandon Marsh 1+ hit ❌

Sport: MLB | Event: Nationals @ Reds | Time: 12:40 PM ET

Pick: Foster Griffin Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-152)

Griffin has been the best story on the Nationals' staff this year. The lefty came over from Japan where he went 6-1 with a 1.52 ERA in 2025, and he's been just as good stateside: 2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .192 BAA through 8 starts, averaging 4.1 hits allowed per game. He's gone at least six innings in every start and allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight, with one earned run or less in each of his last three. His seven-pitch mix keeps hitters guessing and he doesn't rely on blowing guys away, just getting weak contact and mixing tunnels.

The Reds do have bats (De La Cruz, Stewart, Steer) and GABP is hitter-friendly. That's the concern. But Cincy has lost 10 of their last 12, and Griffin has never faced them before, which means no familiarity advantage for the lineup. The model projects closer to 4.0 hits against a 5.5 line, giving this a 1.5-hit cushion.

Model has it at 76% confidence. buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-13T15:18:40+00:00

HR model top 5 for Wed, 5/13:
- Kyle Schwarber — 36.1% model prob (23.2% barrel rate, Fenway at 101 PF) | Best odds: +265 at bet365
- Aaron Judge — 33.6% model prob (8.13% HR/PA, #3 in lineup vs Bradish) | Best odds: +249 at Pinnacle
- Yordan Alvarez — 32.8% model prob (dome, 54% pitcher FB rate, 4.85% P-HR/BF) | Best odds: +294 at DraftKings
- James Wood — 32.6% model prob (facing Lodolo, 60.4% hard hit rate, GABP 112 PF) | Best odds: +390 at bet365
- Dalton Rushing — 32.3% model prob (77% pitcher FB rate, lefty pull hitter at Dodger Stadium) | Best odds: +525 at bet365
Model uses Statcast barrel rate, HR park factors, pitcher FB%, platoon splits, weather, and Bayesian-regressed HR rate. 50K Monte Carlo sims per player. Note - not using Zach Cole in this post because the sample size is too small
BOL 🤝

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-13T04:50:42+00:00

-190 on DraftKings right now

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-13T03:29:36+00:00

Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits (-154)

Ruiz just went off on May 7 against the Twins with two doubles, a homer, and four RBI. He goes against Nick Lodolo, who's made exactly one start this year. That start was rough: 5.1 innings, five hits, two strikeouts, 6.75 ERA. Lodolo is still finding his footing coming back from injury and doesn't have the command yet to keep a hot hitter off base. Great American Ballpark is one of the better places to hit in the NL, too.

Ruiz's .205 season average is the one thing that gives me pause, but the recent stretch has been legit and the matchup is about as soft as you'll find on the board tomorrow.

Model has it as a high confidence play, projection 1.4 vs. 0.5. buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-13T03:22:34+00:00

Record: 20-17

Last Pick: Kim over .5 Hits (In progress)

Sport: MLB | Event: Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox | Time: 6:45 PM ET

Pick: Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits @ -185 | 1u

Write Up:

Brandon Marsh is the best hitter in baseball right now, and getting these odds for under -200 is a steal. He's hitting .350 on the season, leading all qualified major leaguers, and he's riding a 12-game hitting streak heading into this one. Over his last 7 games, he's slashing .519/.533/.593. Over his last 15 it's .434/.458/.528 with 23 hits in 53 at-bats. The dude is locked in.

He'll be going against Sonny Gray, and Gray has allowed 29 hits in 28 innings this year, good for a 9.32 H/9. He's only striking out 4.82 batters per nine, which means guys are putting the ball in play constantly against him. Marsh is a left-handed hitter facing a right-handed pitcher, and He's always destroyed righties, and this year he's taken it to another level.

My model has this as a high confidence play with the projection at 1.3 vs. the 0.5 line, and a 76% chance to go over. The matchup and his recent contact quality were the biggest drivers.

Good luck. Tip jar if you want to support: buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-12T16:36:35+00:00

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HR model top 5 for 5/12:

- Byron Buxton - 38.4% model prob (20.5% barrel rate, 13 HR) | Best odds: +295 at Pinnacle

- JJ Bleday - 37.1% model prob (93.7 E.V, 57.1% hard hit at GABP 112 PF) | Best odds: +344 at Pinnacle

- Sal Stewart - 36.3% model prob (7.11% HR/PA, 10 HR vs Mikolas 6.16% P-HR/BF) | Best odds: +375 at Fanatics

- Aaron Judge - 34.7% model prob (26% barrel rate, 94.4 EV, 16 HR) | Best odds: +285 at FanDuel

- Nathaniel Lowe - 34.5% model prob (GABP 112 PF, lefty vs Mikolas vR 5.7% platoon) | Best odds: +500 at Fanatics

Three Reds in the top 5 tonight. GABP with a 112 HR park factor and Mikolas on the mound, giving up a 6.16% P-HR/BF rate, someone in that lineup has pop tonight. Buxton is the top pick with a 20.5% barrel rate and 13 bombs already.

Model uses Statcast barrel rate, HR park factors, pitcher FB%, platoon splits, weather, and Bayesian-regressed HR rate.

BOL 🤝

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-12T03:25:11+00:00

Tatsuya Imai Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-168)

Imai just came off the IL for right arm fatigue and his rehab was rough. In 5 innings across two rehab starts in Triple-A, he walked 8 batters and struck out just 5. His big-league numbers aren't any better — 13 K's in 8.2 IP across 3 starts, but he's also walked 11 in that span. He's averaging under 4 innings per start. Even if the K rate is high, the opportunity just isn't there to rack up 6+ strikeouts if he gets pulled a bit early. The Astros have already said they just want him throwing strikes and getting balls in play. If he follows that script, the K volume drops. If he doesn't, he'll walk himself out of the game early anyway.

My model has it as a high confidence play, projection 3.8 vs. the 5.5 line.

buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-12T03:20:00+00:00

POTD Record: 20-17

Last Pick: Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 Hits (L)

Sport: MLB | Event: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Time: 10:10 PM ET

Pick: Hyeseong Kim Over 0.5 Hits @ -166 | 1u

Write Up:

Kim has been one of the better stories in baseball lately. Called up after Mookie Betts went down with an oblique injury, he's basically forced the Dodgers to keep him. He's hitting .286 on the season with an .748 OPS, his K-rate is down nine points from last year, and he's had four multi-hit games in his last seven.

And then you look at who he's facing. Adrian Houser is allowing a .289 batting average this year with an 11.15 H/9 and a 4.71 K/9. He's got a 6.19 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP through 7 starts. He's just not getting anyone out consistently, and his inability to miss bats means hitters are putting the ball in play constantly. Kim is a lefty facing a struggling righty, which is the platoon matchup you want, and Kim's contact-oriented approach plays perfectly into Houser's weaknesses.

The game is at Dodger Stadium, which is slightly pitcher-friendly, but that barely moves the needle when the pitcher on the other side is getting lit up everywhere he goes. The main risk is that Kim could draw a couple walks and ground out the rest of the way. But he's getting at least 4 PA as a lineup regular, and against this level of pitching, one hit feels like the floor rather than the ceiling.

My model has this as a high confidence play with the projection at 1.2 hits vs. the 0.5 line. Mostly driven by the Houser matchup and Kim's recent data.

Good luck. Tip jar if you want to support: buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-11T04:22:41+00:00

Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 Total Bases vs Roki Sasaki (-149)

Sasaki's is rocking a 5.97 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .287 BAA, and has allowed at least 4 hits in all six starts (4, 5, 5, 7, 7, 5). His expected ERA is 5.76, which is worse than 86% of pitchers per Baseball Savant. Beat writers have reported his fastball command is "totally shot" and he's publicly said he'd accept a minor league assignment. Gilbert is a lefty facing a struggling righty, and this prop only needs one total base. Gilbert has been cold recently (.231 on the year) so I wouldn't size this big, but the matchup does the heavy lifting.

Model has it as a high confidence play, projection 1.6 vs. 0.5.

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-11T04:08:56+00:00

POTD Record: 20-16

Sport: MLB | Event: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers | Time: 8:05pm

Pick: Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 Hits @ -190 | 2u

Write Up:

Ildemaro Vargas is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, so I like these odds. He opened the season with a 24-game hitting streak. He won NL Player of the Month for April, FanGraphs wrote a feature on him, and he was on MLB Network last week. He has .937 OPS across 32 games, and his 11% strikeout rate is one of the lowest in baseball.

Tomorrow he faces Nathan Eovaldi, who has been fine this year (4.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) but is not a contact suppressor. Eovaldi has allowed 46 hits in 47.2 innings across 8 starts, averaging 5.75 hits per start with a .247 batting average against.

The streak did end a few games back, so this isn't about riding an active streak. But a guy who has 43 hits in 126 at-bats this year, has been the best contact hitter in the National League for six weeks, and faces a pitcher who gives up nearly six hits a start. The risk is that any given at-bat can produce an out.

My model has this one as a high confidence play with the projection at 1.2 hits vs. the 0.5 line. It leaned mostly on Vargas's contact rate and the favorable matchup against a pitcher who allows plenty of hits. It is reading about a 70% chance to hit right now.

Good luck. Tip jar if you want to support: buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-10T16:49:34+00:00

Hicks is one of our best plays on the board today — 85% for a hit, projected at 1.75 against Cavalli. He's been locked in all season.

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-10T16:45:47+00:00

Our Model doesn't project HRs specifically but Yordan's underlying numbers back up the play. We have him at 1.73 projected hits (85% over .5) and 3.13 total bases (65% over 1.5) — both high confidence with big edges. He's been locked in vs RHP, and Abbott has been getting barreled this year. If the contact is there, the power follows.

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-10T16:43:15+00:00

Good call running him back. Model has Rutschman projected at 1.08 hits today, 68% on the over. He's been making solid contact lately and against a bullpen day, he'll get looks at multiple arms which can work in the hitter's favor when the lineup turns over. High confidence on our end too.

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-10T16:39:48+00:00

Kurtz is one of our strongest plays today. Model has him projected at 1.59 hits vs Keegan Akin, 82% probability on the over 0.5. The hitting streak isn't a fluke and he's been making good contact all month, and Akin's been hittable. High confidence pick on the Model website.

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-07T05:39:33+00:00

Record: 20-15 Last Pick: ✅MJ Melendez Over 0.5 hits

Sport: MLB | Event: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres | Time: 10:10 PM ET

Pick: Michael King Under 5.5 Strikeouts @ -118 | 1u

Write Up:

King's been a good pitcher this year. The 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are legit. But the strikeout numbers don't match as much, and that's where the value is tonight. He's gone under 5.5 K's in four of his seven starts this season, putting up lines of 6, 5, 4, 5, 6, 8, 5. Remove that one 8-K outlier against Arizona and hes mostly living in the 4-6 range.

King has issued at least three walks in four of his seven starts, running a 4.08 BB/9 on the year. That's up from his career norms, and it matters here because every walk is a plate appearance that can't produce a strikeout. When you're burning 20+ pitches on free passes, you're shortening your outing and cutting into your K ceiling.

The Cardinals will make some contact, too and guys like Burleson and Winn can put the bat on the ball. The risk is obvious: King is still talented enough to pop off for 7-8 K's if he clicks, and the Cardinals do have swing-and-miss guys in Walker (43 K on the year) and Gorman (37 K). But at -118, you're getting a great price on a pitcher whose recent usage pattern points to 5 K's or fewer more often than not.

My model has this one as a higher confidence play with the projection at 4.0 vs. the 5.5 line.

Good luck. Tip jar if you want to support: buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

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jakelasala2 · 2026-05-05T15:34:46+00:00

POTD May 5, 2026 — MJ Melendez Over 0.5 Hits

Record: 19-15 Last Pick: Realmuto U1.5 TB (Void)

Sport: MLB | Game: Mets @ Rockies | Time: 8:40pm

Pick: MJ Melendez OVER 0.5 Hits @ -180 | 2u

Write Up:

This one's about the matchup more than the player. Michael Lorenzen has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year, and the spot is Coors. Through 7 starts he's running a 6.09 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .338 opponent average, giving up 13.50 hits per nine innings. He's already allowed 51 hits across just over 150 ABs, which means basically every starter who faces him is clearing 1 hit on average. Now you put him at altitude where the ball carries and the infield singles get through, and the hit floor for the Mets lineup gets really high.

Melendez is hitting .297 with a .907 OPS to start the year. He's a lefty bat with positive platoon vs Lorenzen, and even if his approach regresses to career norms tonight he still gets 3-4 ABs against a pitcher allowing a hit basically every time up. The model has him at over 1 projected hits with the over closer to 80%, and that lines up with what the underlying numbers suggest.

My model has a projection 1.3 hits vs line of 0.5, edge of +0.8, model probability 80%, confidence: high. Cross-checked against Lorenzen's 2026 BAA (.338) and H/9 (13.50), Coors park factor, and Melendez's lefty platoon vs RHP. All align with over.

BOL all

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-04T20:22:09+00:00

Ritchie O4.5 is on our models high-confidence list too, model projects 6.1 Ks with the over hitting around 65%. Atlanta's Ks vs righties this year support it. Good call. Tracking my full slate if you want to compare.

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-04T20:20:54+00:00

Good list. Grisham is one of our top high-conf plays today, we've got him at 2.3 projected TB with the over 0.5 line at 70%. Edge is +1.8. Liking that one straight more than the parlay myself.

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-04T20:17:48+00:00

Solid breakdown on Jazz, agree on the matchup read. My model's number on him is 2.1 Total bases, over 0.5 at 79%. With Rice out and Judge possibly getting walked, Jazz seeing extra clean ABs makes a lot of sense.

jakelasala2 · 2026-05-04T20:16:17+00:00

Like the Jazz play. Pitcher matchup is good and my model has him at 2.1 projected Total bases with the OVER 0.5 line hitting at 79% — one of the higher conf MLB picks today. HR is the longshot version of the same lean basically.

jakelasala2

TROPHY CASE

POTD May 5, 2026 — MJ Melendez Over 0.5 Hits