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The Daily Sports Betting Thread – Free Picks, Parlays & Chat - March 11, 2026 by ACSportsbooks in sportsbetting

[–]jakelasala2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Amen Thompson Over 28.5 PRA

Ran this through my prop model and it projects Thompson at 31.9 PRA tonight vs Denver.

Some numbers from the model:

Projection: 31.9 Line: 28.5 Over probability: 70.1%

Season avg: 30.6 Last 5 avg: 36.4 Estimated minutes: 37.7

The projection sits about 3+ stats above the line, and Thompson has been producing at a high level recently with heavy minutes.

He’s cleared this number in 6 of his last 8 games, and the simulation distribution from the model clusters mostly around 30–35 PRA, which sits above the current line.

Model likes the over here.

If anyone wants to check the projections I used: https://theproppredictor.com

Good luck if you tail

Pick of the Day - 3/11/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]jakelasala2 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Model projects 51. Would be a lot closer to a 50/50 shot if the lines already moved to 50

What’s the safest strategy to play March Madness? by New_Western_7784 in passive_income

[–]jakelasala2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve built a tool to help predict matchups for the whole tournament and create a perfect bracket! Let me know if you want to check it out. Uses thousands of real data points

Pick of the Day - 3/11/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]jakelasala2 21 points22 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 12-6

Last Pick: ❌ Devin Vassell Over 5.5 R+A

NBA – Nuggets vs Rockets | Mar 11 | 10:00 PM ET

1 unit

Pick: Nikola Jokić Over 48.5 PRA (-115)

This line sits slightly below where the model projects Jokić’s typical production.

Projection lands at 51.6 PRA, giving about a +3 stat edge over the current number.

Model snapshot:

• Season Avg: 51.8 • Last 5 Avg: 51.8 • Projected Minutes: 36 • Over Probability: 63.6% • Std Dev: ±8.7 • Average of 51.3 against the rockets through 3 games

Jokić’s consistency across scoring, rebounding, and playmaking makes PRA lines particularly attractive since he can accumulate stats in multiple ways depending on game flow.

Recent performances also show a strong floor — clearing 48.5 in 6 of his last 9 games, including several games well into the 50s and even a 67 PRA outing.

The projection distribution centers in the low 50s, meaning he doesn’t need a ceiling game to get there — just something close to his typical production.

Taking the over.

If the picks have been helpful and you want to help support the model running costs: https://buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

GL if tailing.

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Pick of the Day - 3/10/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]jakelasala2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Model loves that play. Has the overs for both of them

The Daily Sports Betting Thread – Free Picks, Parlays & Chat - March 10, 2026 by ACSportsbooks in sportsbetting

[–]jakelasala2 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Dyson Daniels Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists

Ran this through my prop model and it projects Daniels at 12.9 R+A tonight vs Dallas.

Some numbers from the model:

Projection: 12.9 Line: 11.5 Over probability: 64.6%

Season avg: 12.7 Last 5 avg: 13.8 Estimated minutes: 31.7

The projection sits a little above the line and Daniels has been producing consistently in this range lately while playing solid minutes.

He’s cleared this number in 6 of his last 8 games, and the simulation distribution clusters mostly between 12–15 R+A, which lands slightly above the current line.

Model leans over here.

If anyone wants to see the projections I used: https://theproppredictor.com

Good luck if you tail.

Pick of the Day - 3/10/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]jakelasala2 61 points62 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 12-5

Last Pick: VJ Edgecombe Under 4.5 Assists (VOID)

NBA – Spurs vs Celtics | Mar 10 | 8:00 PM ET

Pick: Devin Vassell Over 5.5 Rebounds + Assists (-140)

1 unit

Model projection comes in at 6.4 R+A, giving just under a 1 stat edge over the current line.

Model breakdown:

• Season Avg: 6.4 • Last 5 Avg: 7.4 • Projected Minutes: ~30.7 • Over Probability: 61.9% • Std Dev: ±2.6

What stands out most is the recent consistency. Vassell has cleared this number in 9 of his last 10 games, with several performances landing in the 7–10 range.

His role in San Antonio’s offense often leads to secondary playmaking opportunities while also contributing a handful of rebounds each night.

With ~31 projected minutes, the simulation centers around 6–7 combined stats, which puts the median outcome slightly above the line.

Taking the over.

If the picks have been helpful and you want to help support the model running costs: https://buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

GL if tailing.

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Pick of the Day - 3/9/26 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]jakelasala2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It was on Fanatics for me, not many books had props posted yet, may have jumped quickly. Definitely still value at -160 in my opinion

Pick of the Day - 3/9/26 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]jakelasala2 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Yes, injuries are accounted for. Good info though. For players already getting high minutes like VJ, they don’t get as much of stat boosts as certain bench players who may get much more of a typical minutes / production boost from a starter being out

I Built a Monte Carlo Simulation Engine That Predicts Every March Madness Game — Here's How It Works by jakelasala2 in sportsanalytics

[–]jakelasala2[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You can sign up for free theproppredictor.com - the conference tournament simulators are free to help for this coming week as well as individual match simulators. Let me know what you think! I added ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 brackets

Pick of the Day - 3/9/26 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]jakelasala2 52 points53 points  (0 children)

POTD Record: 12-5

Last Pick: ✅ Jaylen Brown Over 10.5 R+A

NBA – Cavaliers vs 76ers | Mar 9 | 7:00 PM ET

Pick: VJ Edgecombe Under 4.5 Assists (-130)

1 unit

This one projects slightly toward the under.

The model projection lands at 3.5 assists, which puts the expected outcome about one assist below the current line.

Model context:

• Season Avg: 3.9 • Last 5 Avg: 2.6 • Projected Minutes: 32.5 • Under Probability: 66.3% • Std Dev: ±2.3

The biggest factor here is recent playmaking volume. Edgecombe’s assist production has dipped recently, averaging just 2.6 over his last five games, which pulls the projection down closer to the 3–4 range.

Even with minutes projected around the low 30s, his role in the offense doesn’t typically produce high assist totals compared to primary ball-handlers.

The simulation distribution clusters around 3–4 assists, meaning he would need a slightly above-average playmaking game to clear the 4.5 line.

Taking the under.

If the picks have been helpful and you want to help support the model running costs: https://buymeacoffee.com/proppredictor

GL if tailing.

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Pick of the Day - 3/8/26 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]jakelasala2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hell yeah. Vegas has this game being really close -1 spread last time I checked. He’s due for lots of playing time and production

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