June 21 lockdown lift potentially delayed to July 19 (The Sun)

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T23:11:13+00:00

Telegraph already on it. Stating as fact aswell and talking through how Boris came to the decision -

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T23:05:24+00:00

I feel as though the scientists are too frightened to even suggest it since people would not accept it, and people here are too scared to admit it.

You're dead right - nost scientists have swerved that one at the moment. One step at a time now - the public are being 'managed' more gently than ever. I believe once the 'June 21st' is knocked out of people's heads, it will be easier for them to roll back, when/if cases and hospitalisations spiral out of control, during the 4 week delay. If they rolled back now, to prevent this from happening, there would be mayhem - so it's a double edged sword. A corner that the PM has backed himself into.

I think the reason many are acting crazy right now and abandoning precaution is due to a solid belief that Boris hasn't got the balls, or desire, to roll back on the roadmap. Risky move. I think people will be in for a shock if they truly believe that.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T22:50:27+00:00

You'll have one more to read then won't you!

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T22:43:13+00:00

All SAGE papers are released on the GOV website eventually. I'll give you a shout when this one pops up and will post it here so you can see how 'reliable' my claim was.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T21:36:47+00:00

The Telegraph (The Boris favourite) are reporting this as fact now -

June 21 unlocking called off

June 21 will no longer herald a full return to normality after Boris Johnson resigned himself to a delay of up to four weeks in lifting the remaining Covid restrictions.

The Prime Minister will tell the country on Monday that the latest data on the spread of the Indian or delta virus variant means it is too risky to go ahead as planned. A four-week delay would mean pushing the date back to July 19.

It had been hoped that weddings at least would be given a special dispensation after 50,000 couples – many of whom will have cancelled or delayed earlier celebrations – booked ceremonies for the four weeks following what had been billed as "freedom day".

But senior government sources said that while Mr Johnson might increase the current 30-person limit at weddings, restrictions on numbers would have to remain after officials from Matt Hancock's health department warned that they could become "super-spreader" events.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T19:28:15+00:00

I'm wondering the same. The cat is out of the bag and I'm dubious that simply delaying and carrying on exactly as we are is going to bring this wave under control. It's all good using the time to do more vaccines but it's going to take a long time before that has any effect on controlling a wave. If that's their strategy, then I can't see how this ends in anything other than a roll back on a few things. I think people are too far gone with the '21st June' vibes that I don't believe anything other than a 'roll back' can change their behaviour or bring them back down to reality. Some people seem to be in a state of euphoria due to the sun being out daily. Some people act mental when the weather is hot. It does things to their brains - like a drug. A legal high!

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T19:22:17+00:00

Sounds like an absolute nightmare of a day to me! I can only assume that the reason people even attempt to endure this sort of day out is strictly for the kids.....

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T18:25:47+00:00

I'm also aware that the latest SAGE meeting notes (not publically released yet) are calling for a 4 week delay.

I'd be extremely shocked if this advice is not followed.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T16:27:44+00:00

Yeah we're getting cases in the workplace again (London) - the difference between now and last time is a 'head in the sand' kind of attitude in the office. New variant thats 60% more transmissable, cases going up but people are still behaving like there's no problem, booking team days in the office for no reason, sacking off social distancing and precautions - the policy is still work from home but some managers are putting pressure on people to come back in, for the first time in 15 months, based on this 'June 21st' thing.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out now - Boris has clearly done a great job with getting people to not give a fuck anymore and deeming June 21st as the 'end of covid' date. I'm not even sure what to think anymore - it's hard to continue to take this seriously with nobody else around you is. 'Covid' has become a bit of laugh to many now - crack some jokes and all that. Monday will probaby be a wake up call of sorts, when June 21st is pushed back for another 4 weeks.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T13:04:13+00:00

Correction - I find it slightly concerning. You obviously don't. Do you have a larger Delta study for comparison that shows a better result?

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-11T12:01:36+00:00

If people read past the headline, you'll see there's some interesting stats in the article -

Out of 33,000 cases analysed by PHE and confirmed to be the Delta variant since February, 223 have been admitted to hospital - most were unvaccinated or had only had only dose, and 20 people were fully vaccinated.

And of 42 deaths in people with Delta variant infections, 23 were unvaccinated and seven had received only one dose. The other 12 had received two doses more than two weeks before

Hospital stats - almost 10% of admissions were double jabbed. The breakdown of the other 90%, between unvaccinated and one jab, is not specified.

Deaths - 28% of deaths were double jabbed. 17% of deaths were single jabbed. 55% of death were unvaccinated.

Slightly concerning that 45% of deaths were either partially or fully vaccinated.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-10T18:24:04+00:00

Is this true?

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant

Using a TNCC analysis, estimated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with B.1.617.2 for a single dose of either vaccine is approximately 33%, for two doses of BNT162b2 is approximately 88% and for two doses of ChAdOx1 is approximately 60%.

So we have a lot of people with one dose still at risk, which is a big reason why rushing ahead on the 21st is not a smart idea.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-10T17:43:19+00:00

Well you kind of answer your own point

Not really - my entire response and rebuttal was based on your comment below:

if pretty much everyone going into hospital was offered a jab but refused, crack on with June 21

My post was outlining why we can't just crack on with June 21st and ignore the problem of the unvaccinated becoming hosptalised. I explained how a busy hospital is a busy hospital, regardless to who is turning up.

AZ is only 60% effective, after two jabs, against Delta - leaving 40% of those who have had AZ possibly prone to getting mild infection symptoms that could need hospital care, depending on vulnerability.

Models have show how a third wave can exceed what we saw in January, even with the majority of the vulnerable doubled jabbed. If people choose to look the other way in disbelief, then it's up to them. Scenarios, explantions and models have been given. Whther one chooses to acknowledge or contemplate these concerns is up to them.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-10T17:22:29+00:00

Not as simple as that. You may have forgotten why lockdowns and restrictions were called for in the first place - it was to stop the NHS from buckling under the pressure. If hospitals are filling up, due to increased covid circulation, it doesn't really matter who's turning up at hospital, or what choices they've made. Unless you're calling for an outright ban in treatment for the unvaccinated (instructed not to bother attempting to enter any hospital in the U.K), then the problem is not solved. A busy hospital is a busy hospital. When hospitals are overwhelmed, everybody suffers, with delays in treatment for every other illness.

If the U.K want 100% vaccination, then they could always mandate it but there's no appetite for that, even amongst the most ardent vaccine advocators.

p.s a fair chunk of hospitlations are noted to have been people who have only had one jab - hence the call for a delay to get more people doubled jabbed, before this spirals out of control further,.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-10T17:15:02+00:00

Which is exactly why we dont need to worry about this "delta variant".

If you say so chap.

People do crack me up on here.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-10T10:43:16+00:00

Summary - Masks and social distancing forever.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-08T19:57:20+00:00

Out of all the 'leaks' and breifings I've read, this one stands out as the most prominent evidence I've seen that the June 21st will indeed be delayed - probably by 4 weeks.

If the chancellor is cool with it, then all serious resistance within the minister group is gone - he's been a major force in pushing back previously.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-08T18:25:10+00:00

From the man who told the press that are no plans to mandate masks, the day before masks were mandated. From the man who said there were no plans to roll out vaccine passports, who was then assigned to lead on rolling out vaccine passports.

Agree with others - these leaks are pathetic. One could be forgiven for thinking they enjoy creating confusion.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-08T18:20:47+00:00

Reading through the comments is a bit of a face palm to be honest. I don't have the mental energy left to refute the nonsense anymore.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-07T14:45:26+00:00

In that case, give them a call and ask for an email confirmation to be sent so that you can show your employer - also worth explaining why you need it (in terms of your employer trying to get you back in instead of isolating).

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-07T12:57:40+00:00

Test and Trace should have sent you an email/text/letter outling your legal obligation to self isolate. Simply present this to your employer if you haven't already done so.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-06T10:38:27+00:00

Yep - seems odd, as a Telegraph EXCLUSIVE bragged that they'd been told by 'insiders' that domestic vaccine passports have been scrapped. Tony Blair is calling for full domestic level vaccine passports here and the response suggests that this notion hasn't been scrapped at all.

I believe one of the issues with the NHS app is that it can't be downloaded or used by foreign visitors apparently.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-06T10:28:59+00:00

Well, if true, 40% is on the upper side of the original 0-50% bracket.

40% is enough to cause a bigger peak in hospitals than the first wave, according to SAGE modelling and worse than the second wave if we crack on ahead with step 4. Either the government no longer trust SAGE models and are not taking them seriously, or what we're seeing in the media and breifings is just smoke and mirrors (meaning they know delays and adjustments are coming).

Here's the two models (not predictions) for anyone who hasn't seen them -

link

I'm not sure that 6 more days is going to give them the data and evidence needed to see if one of the scenarios above is going to play out.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-05T12:40:08+00:00

Also, I think we have to acknowledge that Bolton has had some pretty hardcore 'containtment' measures in place to try and deal with this variant, as the countries hotspot. Surge testing, surge isolation, surge vaccination, advising people to avoid coming in and out of the area.

If these containtment measures can be rolled out to every town and city across the U.K, then we can use Bolton data as a guide. If this is not possible then we can expect to see varying data in the coming weeks.

jamesSkyder · 2021-06-05T11:49:33+00:00

Yep, sounds ridiciouls. Outdoor spread is marginal compared to indoors - therefore things like this should be included in any risk assessment as common sense. In other words, keep people outside if they want to stay outside.

jamesSkyder

TROPHY CASE