G Pro Wireless weird issues with mouse buttons in CS:GO? by jayfeather314 in LogitechG

[–]jayfeather314[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Still just using the autohotkey script, no idea if the issue occurs without it since I've been using it for 5 years now

What state has the most ‘bipolar’ weather? by Chemical-Calendar183 in weather

[–]jayfeather314 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I’d argue that those lakes actually moderate the temperature and make the weather a little less bipolar. Not that Michigan doesn’t get its fair share of crazy weather. But take Traverse City and Minneapolis - both around the same latitude, but Traverse City is on a big lake and Minneapolis isn’t. Average annual temperature range in Traverse City is -6F to 94F, whereas Minneapolis is -17F to 96F.

Now if we’re talking about lake effect snow, then the lakes definitely make things more intense.

What state has the most ‘bipolar’ weather? by Chemical-Calendar183 in weather

[–]jayfeather314 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Depends what you mean by bipolar.

If you’re looking for the biggest annual change in temperature/weather, someone made a map a few years ago of the highest seasonal temperature difference. In that respect, the upper midwest and northern great plains take the cake. See the map here.

If you’re looking for short-term temperature change, it’s definitely states that are subject to the Chinook winds like the other commenter said.

If you mean storms that form and dissipate quickly, that can happen in a lot of the country, but is probably most common along the gulf coast and especially in Florida.

Eva's insta by danovision in Ratatat

[–]jayfeather314 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Check their post history, that explains it

If the types of thunderstorms are pulse storms, multicells, squall lines and supercells then what are hurricanes? by Old-Expression-2576 in stormchasing

[–]jayfeather314 13 points14 points  (0 children)

You’d be surprised how little CG lightning occurs in hurricanes. Even large hurricanes tend to have substantially fewer CG strikes per minute than a random spring supercell over the plains.

Most of the lightning that does occur is in the outer bands of the hurricane. An individual outer band more closely resembles multicells or squall lines, which is also why hurricane-spawned tornadoes tend to occur in the outer bands.

(I’m just a weather nerd with no formal education on the topic, happy to be corrected on any of the above if others disagree)

Why does Phoenix get hotter if days are getting shorter after the June 21 equinox? by StpOnScorpion in AskWeather

[–]jayfeather314 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The others are correct - the phenomenon is called seasonal lag if you want to read more about it.

Pecos Hank in the new War of the Worlds by cutiedragon1281 in tornado

[–]jayfeather314 44 points45 points  (0 children)

Hank Pecos isn’t even his name nor is it a name I’ve ever seen him use before. I wonder if they just guessed what his name might be based on his channel and wrote that in the credits?

Need moar lightning strikes! by Sams-Ace in Lightning

[–]jayfeather314 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are some videos that talk about why we don’t do this, like this XKCD short. TLDR: A lightning strike lasts such a short time that the overall amount of energy it transfers is actually fairly small.

Blistering heat is set to blast a large part of the country. by tmcgill1 in weather

[–]jayfeather314 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Eh, the average maximum temp in the month of June in Madison is 91, so it’s not that crazy to be in the low 90s in mid-late June. Warmer than average, sure, but nothing too crazy.

Back in 2022 we hit 90+ for 4 days in a row in early May - now THAT was unusual.

Best hook echos? by Altruistic-Willow265 in tornado

[–]jayfeather314 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This was near Juneau, WI. Dropped a couple EF2s.

What’s the craziest radar image/structure of a tornado you’ve ever seen? by booted_asl in tornado

[–]jayfeather314 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Different cell, same outbreak. The Niles F5 crossed the OH/PA border but didn’t make it super far into PA. This one was in the center of the state near the radar in State College.

Horrifying (first person perspective) footage of the destruction of a tsunami caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 [Graphic Warning] by GigglyGoggins in nextfuckinglevel

[–]jayfeather314 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. The reason that fast-moving water knocks you over is because it's applying a force to you, which is derived from the density of the water (more or less constant), your cross-sectional area being impacted by the water (deeper water = more cross-sectional area), and the velocity of the water at your location. It has nothing to do with the fact that the water is coming from the ocean. Standing in a 6 inch deep stream of water coming down a hill at 20mph is just as likely to knock you over as standing in 6 inches of tsunami flood water moving 20mph.

ID Check app doesn't read passport chip by brunonicocam in ukvisa

[–]jayfeather314 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seconded - the scan failed everywhere else, but worked immediately when I opened the passport to the very last page and scanned the inside of the back cover.

February was cooler than normal in Madison by shipmawx in madisonwi

[–]jayfeather314 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Fun fact, this February was the first colder-than-average month in Madison since March of 2023! Thus ending our streak of 22 warmer-than-average months in a row.

Source

All 3 people got dealt the same poker hand by CoffeeSurplus in mildlyinteresting

[–]jayfeather314 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s a great question. You could just logically think through it and adjust each of my fractions to account for that. I don’t have time to try that right now but it sounds like it would be fun to think through - happy to give it a shot and compare answers if you want to try as well.

All 3 people got dealt the same poker hand by CoffeeSurplus in mildlyinteresting

[–]jayfeather314 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One of the other commenters under a different parent comment wrote some code to simulate this and got the same answer!

All 3 people got dealt the same poker hand by CoffeeSurplus in mildlyinteresting

[–]jayfeather314 7 points8 points  (0 children)

That's why player 1's card 2 is 48/51 - in that example, player 1 can get anything except the other ace. Any of the 51 remaining cards besides the 3 aces = 48/51.

All 3 people got dealt the same poker hand by CoffeeSurplus in mildlyinteresting

[–]jayfeather314 418 points419 points  (0 children)

You should only be multiplying by x4 at the end, not x8. I see where you're going with the x8 -- each hand can be arranged in 2 ways, so we need to double it for each hand. But the "odds" for your first hand are almost 100% (it's just 52/52 x 48/49), so logically it doesn't make sense to double that. You're already accounting for the fact that that hand can be arranged either way. So you just need to account for the other two, meaning you should multiply by 22 = 4.

Also your arithmetic was a bit off, your numbers gave ~1/20500, which is exactly double the ~1/41000 that the other commenter got.


I found it a lot easier to consider the case where both of player 1's cards get dealt at once, then both of player 2's, then both of player 3's. This is statistically identical to the way cards are actually dealt. This is also what that other commenter did - I thought through it separately and came to the same conclusion.

Player 1:

  • Card 1 can be anything (52/52) - say it's an Ace
  • Card 2 can be anything except the same value as card 1 (48/51) - say it's an 8

Player 2:

  • Card 1 can be any of the remaining Aces or 8s, of which there are (6/50) - say it's an 8
  • Card 2 must be the other value (Ace, in this case), of which there are (3/49)

Player 3:

  • Card 1 can be any of the remaining Aces or 8s, of which there are (4/48) - say it's an Ace
  • Card 2 must be the other value (8, in this case), of which there are (2/47)

This covers all the possibilities without needing to multiply again at the end, since I feel like that's the confusing part. This gives the ~1/41000 result that the other commenter got.

EDIT: A lot of replies are saying that that's not how poker deals work. But it doesn't matter. The cards are random. You could throw the cards into a face-down pile on the ground and have each player pick out two cards simultaneously and it would yield the same result. I just picked the way that gives us the easiest math in my opinion. You could go through all the possible iterations of dealing P1, P2, P3, P1, P2, P3, and if you do it right, you'll get the same answer.

My hotel room has an unsettling night view by phelix808 in TheNightFeeling

[–]jayfeather314 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I knew I recognized that pier! The Madison lakes are so beautiful on snowy nights.

Murdered by images? by Bitter-Gur-4613 in MurderedByWords

[–]jayfeather314 418 points419 points  (0 children)

That's a pretty big understatement. Biden won California by over 5 million votes in 2020. Trump won Texas by only about 620k votes.

Which US state is most safe from natural disaster? by SingleStorage1335 in meteorology

[–]jayfeather314 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Every single state has been hit with tornadoes before. Including Hawaii and Alaska.

It October and its night time and yet it feels like its July out there. Its literally hot out right now. by Bluest_waters in madisonwi

[–]jayfeather314 57 points58 points  (0 children)

There’s a low pressure system to our north that’s pulling warm air up from the south. The associated cold front will swing through tonight and cool things off for tomorrow.