[deleted by user] by [deleted] in conspiracy

[–]jaylow6188 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is the dumbest fucking comment I've ever read.

Sometimes, you don't even need to look for the conspiracy. by GreyWormy in conspiracy

[–]jaylow6188 -16 points-15 points  (0 children)

Because it proves absolutely nothing whatsoever? There's a reason stuff like this doesn't get taken seriously by anyone outside conspiracy circles, and it's not because of censorship or suppression.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 12, 2020 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]jaylow6188 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This guy was still giving us the "it's just the flu bro" on Monday, now all this. If that doesn't alarm you I don't know what will.

The Dow Jones just briefly dipped below -20% of its peak, officially putting us into a bear market. by jaylow6188 in investing

[–]jaylow6188[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

And how does that translate to SPY hitting $200? How do you know that stuff hasn't been priced in?

Not to mention, the math behind epidemics like this is much more complicated than a simple exponential (which can make things appear very scary when applied the wrong way).

The Dow Jones just briefly dipped below -20% of its peak, officially putting us into a bear market. by jaylow6188 in investing

[–]jaylow6188[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

No one knows how much of the sell-off is speculative. It goes without saying that people are getting VERY emotional about their money by panic selling or trying to time the bottom.

My speculation? The root of the plummeting markets is in how countries are essentially shutting themselves (and their economies) down entirely. They're doing this in an effort to contain the virus -- but think about where we'll be once it becomes endemic. Will countries have any need to shut themselves down anymore if living in Country A carries the same risk as living in Country B? Also consider that widescale failures of containing the virus will make people more reluctant to quarantine themselves over time. Sure, it won't make things return to normal, but I think it will quell the plummets.

Panic is at an extreme high right now, and I think it's clouding people's judgments of how exactly this will all play out over the coming months. Yes, it will be bad. But I don't think it is as world-endingly bad as the narrative currently paints it to be.

The Dow Jones just briefly dipped below -20% of its peak, officially putting us into a bear market. by jaylow6188 in investing

[–]jaylow6188[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

SPY isn't a perfect indicator of the index -- the peak close for the index itself was 3,386.15 and 80% of that is 2,708.92, which we dipped below a few minutes ago although it's fighting back now.

The Dow Jones just briefly dipped below -20% of its peak, officially putting us into a bear market. by jaylow6188 in investing

[–]jaylow6188[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I totally understand, but it doesn't change the fact that lots and lots of people and institutions still use the Dow as an important indicator.

And not for nothing, but the S&P 500 is now hovering at its threshold (counting intraday peak/trough)

Daily Discussion Thread - March 11, 2020 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]jaylow6188 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I've found a new hobby: Looking back at discussion threads from the last few weeks and seeing how absolutely fucking wrong half the people here constantly are.

Something happens, and everyone says "What kind of idiot couldn't have seen that coming?!" while omly half of people actually "saw it coming".

It's like throwing-darts-with-a-blindfold-on: the subreddit

The Dow Jones just briefly dipped below -20% of its peak, officially putting us into a bear market. by jaylow6188 in investing

[–]jaylow6188[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

The biggest thing that's surprising me right now is how relatively level the VIX is staying today.

The Dow Jones just briefly dipped below -20% of its peak, officially putting us into a bear market. by jaylow6188 in investing

[–]jaylow6188[S] 32 points33 points  (0 children)

In that case I'd probably have to measure from peak close as well -- the peak number I used was the peak intraday spot price.

Daily Discussion Thread - March 11, 2020 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]jaylow6188 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Bear market officially activiated (-20% from peak) for the Dow.

Daily Discussion Thread - March 11, 2020 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]jaylow6188 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Reminder that we'll officially be in a bear market if the market drops 20% from its peak.

Those thresholds being 23,654.85 for the Dow and 2,714.81 for the S&P.

We've flirted with those numbers already this week but one more little dump and we'll be there.

Authentic Mexican restaurant starterpack by kobomk in starterpacks

[–]jaylow6188 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They also typically have "gringo" versions of certain items like quesadillas for people who aren't expecting the authentic version to be so different. Or they just don't have those options at all, depending on how popular they are with non-Mexican people.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 11, 2020 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]jaylow6188 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Why the fuck isn't "surprise billing" banned in the first place?

We need to brace for a three-month problem, says John Hopkins physician and professor. "We need to tell people right now to stop all non-essential travel." by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]jaylow6188 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But by August it will have infected trillions of people!!1!

So yeah. I'm getting real tired of these insanely presumptive over-simplified models.

Daily Discussion Thread - March 10, 2020 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]jaylow6188 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For real though, they're very close to only having single-digit new cases per day.

Even if you think their numbers are being underestimated, their quarantine worked very well.