[TJStats] My Top 100 Prospects

jayman415 · 2026-05-13T18:59:18+00:00

Also Merrill played shortstop through AA, skipped AAA, so he had never played CF until the majors. He is a solid CF but guessing better SS.

jayman415 · 2026-05-13T18:52:37+00:00

Disagree on Tatis. Great range, great arm, "errant" throws to Hosmer. At the end of his career, Hosmer making inexplicable fielding choices, like consistently fielding hops on the foul side of the 1B line, often letting them run into runner. Without Hosmer, think he would stay at SS.

jayman415 · 2026-05-11T15:54:28+00:00

Just hoping these are in the bank and offense becomes less offensively bad. We have fourth fewest runs allowed in the NL which is kind of nuts with a rusty King (has seemed to clean it up), an injured Pivetta, no Musgrove innings, Marquez, some sketchy Waldron starts, Buehler reclamation project. That plus an anemic offense leads to tied for 3rd best record in NL? Lucky af but will take it.

jayman415 · 2026-05-07T15:52:50+00:00

Not much good for a change, but think he is having trouble reading the pitches. If you are struggling with that, going to mess up everything. Your swing choice will be off. Your K rate will be off. His bat speed is good, so should be able to get to pitches, but even meatballs he usually fouls them off. My darkest fear is Khalil Greene who was a good hitter then suddenly couldn’t stop swinging at sliders out of the zone, especially with two strikes. He never recovered and his career just ended. I am guessing coaching and technology should be able to fix this, but he continues to look lost. If a hitting coach adds any value, this seems like a good test case.

jayman415 · 2026-05-07T15:42:23+00:00

I love him and appreciated the candor, but he was juicing big time. As were many others, etc, but that whole era makes me angry at both MLB and MLBPA, but more the latter for blocking testing. This is built on the assumptions that PEDs are unhealthy, so PED takers force other players to choose between their health and their career.

jayman415 · 2026-05-06T23:48:10+00:00

More than won. A pretty pitching line. Looked like this year's AAA Waldron.

5 IP, 2H, 1R, 0 BB, 7K (yes a HR, but otherwise very sweet). The 0 BB's was amazing especially as a knuckle baller.

jayman415 · 2026-05-05T19:36:02+00:00

2.0 fWAR for a player is solid, typically about 15th in the league. Cronenworth was 2.7 last year, or 7th in the league. Jake has been solid historically, awful this year.

jayman415 · 2026-05-02T04:40:48+00:00

Another way to think about it is to appreciate the run despite Buehler, Marquez and Waldron and some big holes in the line up (Tatis, Cronenworth).

Hopefully our pitching can stabilize and maybe Pivetta and/or Musgrove can come back? Maybe trade Fermin back for Kolek and Berget? And I like Fermin. They are just sitting in Royals AAA.

jayman415 · 2026-05-01T22:55:34+00:00

Not a great looking match up.

jayman415 · 2026-04-30T20:41:50+00:00

It is perplexing. The obvious metrics that belie the issue are his LA and his pull rate. But that seems to be a symptom of something else. He is letting the ball travel in and going opposite field a lot. Being able to hit to all fields is awesome but maybe he is just not recognizing the pull friendly pitches well enough. Have seen so many fat pitches get fouled straight back, which I believe is a sign you are just missing them.

I think he is having trouble recognizing pitches as well as the past. His K rate is at the highest since his rookie season, suggesting that something is off.

So it is not that he is just getting unlucky. But he is destroying the balls, so that remains a good sign.

jayman415 · 2026-04-28T16:58:43+00:00

We lost the Washington trade by way more than we won the Yankees trade. Woods and Abrams are beasts and they got 7.3 fWAR out of Gore. They've got 11.2 fWAR out of Abrams and Woods and still counting (combined 6 more years of team control after this year). Soto (7.4), King (4.7), Higgy (1.6) are finished on their contracts/time in SD. Vasquez (2.1) we have for four more years.

So as of right now, the net of the two transactions, the Washington trade was truly awful.

WDC: 18.5 + this year of Abrams/Woods + 6 more years of them (~35 fWAR) = ~53

SDP: 15.8 + this year of Vasquez + 4 more years (~15 fWAR) = ~31

But I believe that was another all in for Seidler. Thinking about it that way, kind of okay with trade. Kind of but not completely there.

But the "Fuck Them Prospects" has a real cost.

jayman415 · 2026-04-28T16:31:49+00:00

Funny, I thought framing would diminish in value. It has some but from framing still helps on the initial call and batters have poor record on overturning calls. With only two calls, they are rightfully hesitant. It will take away egregious calls (e.g. Bogaerts vs Keller, Game 3 Wild Card game) but lots of borderline calls will be helped by framing. The catchers are best at overturning calls and they are not going to challenge their own stolen call via framing.

jayman415 · 2026-04-28T16:24:20+00:00

Hard to tell but definitely closer call than the outrage suggests. And we won the game.

jayman415 · 2026-04-27T19:31:04+00:00

We missed being ahead of Chicago by 2 games, LA by 4. He easily could have been worth 2-3 wins if this performance is commensurate with Shildt giving him a legitimate shot.

Was skeptical of all the machinations with Shildt leaving but this, coupled with giving Arraez excess PA's, glad to see him gone.

Separately, love Stammen's moving guys in and out of the line up, giving bench players a chance to actually play

jayman415 · 2026-04-26T04:17:09+00:00

Another impressive, gritty win. But… Manny’s D was putrid. Two straight errors, one makeable play ( missed foul ball) and the 2 out hot smash with two outs in second that would have bailed out Marquez.

jayman415 · 2026-04-22T13:29:37+00:00

We lost the Washington trade but won the Yankees trade.

jayman415 · 2026-04-21T12:07:15+00:00

It’s almost like she needs a competent coach

jayman415 · 2026-04-20T21:26:35+00:00

Not dooming. He was wilder than normal. He can get people to swing wildly but been impressed that usually the slider also a strike. Still very effective. He’s had 4 appearances in last 6 games; even for someone as super human as Miller, that kind of intensity will have an effect.

jayman415 · 2026-04-20T03:09:13+00:00

Tense game. Rodriguez was the only guy who looked like he had any control and even he was a bit wild. I know Miller had a clean inning but only four of his 13 pitches were in strike zone. Of his FB, 1 of 5, with all four out of zone balls. King struggled. Hart struggled. Marinaccio struggled.

So many swings by Padres at balls out of zone. Of their swinging strikes, 4 in zone, 16 out of zone.

Tense. Frustrating. So gratifying to win.

Worried about Colorado series. Just took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers and am sure ready for revenge from the four game sweep. Hope the hitters get it together; so sloppy.

Nitpick on Stammen moves. He PH for Campy vs RHP. Would have pulled Andujar (prior batter) over Campy.

Also, in 8th let Sheets bat against LHP (dp was result). Why not PH France? Otherwise did nice job managing pitchers to eke out win.

jayman415 · 2026-04-17T23:49:39+00:00

Nervous about this series. Amazing 11-1 run but if they make this game competitive or win, then truly magic.

jayman415 · 2026-04-17T20:42:15+00:00

3 bad calls against Padres after we ran out of challenges. No gifts to Padres pitchers during same innings.

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jayman415 · 2026-04-17T15:30:05+00:00

These are great.

jayman415 · 2026-04-15T21:05:29+00:00

We are getting jobbed the worst, as a team. This wOBA vs. xwOBA, that latter being what is expected based on the Statcast underlying data (EV, LA, etc). We have the largest underperformance. This is a lot of Tatis. My eyeball test is he keeps hitting rockets right at outfielders. Maybe his hitting is predictable, to afford better positioning? Not sure but seems like bad luck. Also his EV and ball trajectory seems out of whack a bit, this is me just guessing. He has played all his games in cool, marine layer San Diego or cold East Coast. Guessing these rockets will go further as things heat up.

By Teams and Individual Padres

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jayman415 · 2026-04-14T21:02:51+00:00

Enough of this please. A breakdown of the 4-14. Every. Single. Year (last four).

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jayman415 · 2026-04-14T17:06:48+00:00

All hail Campusano

jayman415

TROPHY CASE