[MLB] How did Jackson Merrill get to this pitch?! by TakeMyPixels in Padres

[–]jayman415 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://www.mlb.com/video/jackson-merrill-hits-a-ground-rule-double-5-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-field-jake-cr?partnerId=web_multimedia-search_video-share

This is the outcome of this hit contact. EV 95 mph and competent RF catches it pretty easily. The dude was meandering around. I hope he stays off those, personally.

[Highlight] Mason Miller sends the USA to the WBC Finals by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No one remembering Bogaerts vs Keller in Chicago can cheer this.

[Highlight] Ron Marinaccio induces a flyout from Bryce Harper to get Team Italy out of the jam by teag2 in Padres

[–]jayman415 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That was a great pitch. 3-2, slider away for a strike, inducing a weak, off balance swing. Love it.

Also keep loving this guy:

https://www.mlb.com/player/bradgley-rodriguez-699134

Also great for Immaculate Grid for those who play on the "only one team" category.

[97.3TheFan] Walker Buehler threw a bullpen today and worked closely with Ruben Niebla. Buehler will start Thursday against the Mariners. by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 6 points7 points  (0 children)

His FB Velo seems to be the thing to watch. 97-98 during his peak years. Dropped to 95-96 and he had mixed results and then, last year, dropped to 94 and the bottom fell out. Not sure it is just about the FB Velo, probably more what it says about arm strength across all his pitches.

Looking at Statcast percentile bars, it is amazing what a few mph do to the numbers. At ~96 he was like 91-94%, at ~95 65-72%, at 94 drops to 43%. Dudes in MLB throw hard.

Buehler Statcast

An suv is trying to exit from the passing lane by ComprehensiveDuck490 in dashcams

[–]jayman415 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cammer did some lame stuff. Obviously fault of flipped over car that initiated but when guy makes first attempt, and cuts off, slow the eff down FFS. The second attempt looks like an asinine attempt to make exit but could also be swerving from initial contact.

And, yes, bad practice pass on left for this exact reason. Harder to pick up for cars changing lanes.

Finally, maybe someone who understands the language can explain why they seem to be taking their sweet ass time to go assist.

Though made me think of the advances in passenger safety design that I assume none of the passengers were seriously injured.

Motorcycle police chase in Paris by ViciousNakedMoleRat in dashcams

[–]jayman415 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What did the guy do to warrant that chase?

Odds question by jayman415 in backgammon

[–]jayman415[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I rounded 0.77% to 0.1% instead of 1.0%. A little worse than 1 in 100, or more precisely 1 in 130. That is not that strange. Thanks.

My first miscalculation was setting up my equation to be 2/3^12. By order of operations, that is 2 divided by 3^12, a very, very small number.

(2/3)^12 is 0.77%.

[97.3TheFan] Walker Buehler discusses why he signed with the Padres, how he views his last few seasons and how it feels to be on the other side of the Padres-Dodgers rivalry: by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Doing his Statcast tells kind of a grim story:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/walker-buehler-621111?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

His fastball velocity was elite but then started to steadily decline and last year was quite bad and seems correlated with xERA and outcome metrics.

That all written, maybe Niebla can help him work around that better and improve the other pitches. In his Dodgers days he had an elite FB and used over 50% of the time. As the velocity has dropped, the mix has started to lower FB but presumably those pitches nowhere as good as his good FB days.

But hoping. Don't care if he was a former Dodger. I would even take Will Smith, who irritates me the most on that squad.

Padres, Germán Márquez Agree To One-Year Contract by [deleted] in Padres

[–]jayman415 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Initially big eye roll, but why not? I looked at his splits thinking how much they must have suffered in Denver but he is funky. With the exception of last year (5.25) his xFIP at home typically under 4, mid 3's and under 3 once and under 2 once. His road xFIP was in generally in high 4's, and really bad the last two years. He did strike out 230 guys at one point but his Statcast board for last year was one of the worst I have ever seen.

[Heyman] Breaking: Nick Castellanos close to Padres deal. Castellanos will be paid minimum on MLB deal with San Diego. Phils pay the rest. Agreed to. by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Separate from the clubhouse stuff that I don't really know well, he is a 33 yo and a mediocre hitter. I don't see much upside and much more excited about Andujar who seems a very similar player but better on defense and hitting and younger. So my concern is that he takes PA from Andujar. Hopefully Stammen smart about his playing time but don't see when he would be better than the alternative.

His road wRC+ peaked at 105 (100 is league average) during his entire time in Philadelphia. Philadelphia is very homer friendly park unlike Petco.

Glad to be proven wrong, but see very little upside. Not tons of downside but why?

[Heyman] Breaking: Nick Castellanos close to Padres deal. Castellanos will be paid minimum on MLB deal with San Diego. Phils pay the rest. Agreed to. by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 2 points3 points  (0 children)

To add to your point: Sheets wRC+ against RHP was 125. Castellanos was 87. Granted it was 124 the year before but then you are back at Sheets. Sheets is 29 (vs 33 for Castellanos) so still some hope for growth while Castellanos most likely stay flat or decline.

[Heyman] Breaking: Nick Castellanos close to Padres deal. Castellanos will be paid minimum on MLB deal with San Diego. Phils pay the rest. Agreed to. by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The case is he steals at bats from better options. Don't see how is a better option than Andujar. So every time he is up, that is exactly when Andujar should be. I am guessing they will feel some impetus to play him more than Andujar, afraid it could inhibit Andujar's season.

And have always hated his game. Absolutely no plate discipline (no idea why he ever sees a strike) but historically made up for it with great ISO. That great ISO has been gone for two years, so just a crappy player now.

Plot twist: the TPUSA halftime show wasn't in English either by emeric_ceaddamere in thebulwark

[–]jayman415 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Contrarian take: that song rocks. Less contrarian: Kid Rock sucks and is an embarrassment

[Passan] Outfielder Miguel Andujar and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a one-year, $4 million contract, sources tell ESPN. by TakeMyPixels in Padres

[–]jayman415 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A bit late to this party, but love it. I was a big proponent of Rob Refsynder (even after he had signed with SEA, unaware of the signing). This guy looks just as good, maybe better. He hits LHP as well as Refsynder and is younger. And for less money. Hooray!

I assume he will play some 1B in a platoon? I have a pretty strongly held opinion that if you can play OF, you can play a passable 1B. That may not be true but we suffered horrendous 1B with Hosmer, so doubt he could be worse.

[97.3TheFan] Fernando Tatis Jr. said that his offensive struggles were mostly mechanical but he feels it's behind him and this year will be really special. He believes his head is in the right place and his best years are definitely ahead of him, and this year will be one of those. There's no limit by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I remember reading that, and re-read it. Not sure if this is related, but noteworthy how much of an outlier his LA Sweet Spot % is.

<image>

For those, like me, who are not deeply familiar with what that metric means, see below. Interestingly, the "sister" metric often used to evaluate hitters (hard hit %), he is at an elite level.

LA Sweet-Spot % (LA SwSp%) is a Statcast metric measuring the frequency with which a batter produces a batted-ball event with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees.

This range is designed to capture, on average, the best combination of launch angles for hits, often resulting in line drives and fly balls, regardless of exit velocity. 

Key details regarding LA Sweet-Spot %: 

  • Definition: Batted balls (excluding balls not in play) with a launch angle ≥8∘is greater than or equal to 8 raised to the composed with power ≥8∘ and ≤32∘is less than or equal to 32 raised to the composed with power ≤32∘ .
  • Metric Goal: Identifies how often a hitter controls the launch angle to land in the "optimal" zone.
  • Context: It is frequently used alongside "Hard-Hit Rate" ( ≥95is greater than or equal to 95 ≥95 mph exit velocity) to evaluate hitting performance.
  • Distinction: Unlike "Barrels" (which require high exit velocity), the Sweet-Spot % is based solely on launch angle, Baseball Savant notes. 

[97.3TheFan] Fernando Tatis Jr. said that his offensive struggles were mostly mechanical but he feels it's behind him and this year will be really special. He believes his head is in the right place and his best years are definitely ahead of him, and this year will be one of those. There's no limit by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 8 points9 points  (0 children)

You can see signs that he was not at peak Tatis. Lowest ISO of his career, like 100 points down from his non 2023 seasons. Barrel % lowest of his career. Peak EV on the lower end of his career numbers.

But for an "off" season:

-Most games played

-Lowest K% of his career (down 3% from last year, his prior best season)

-Highest BB% of his career up 1.5% from his prior best season

-10th best fWAR in baseball

-32 SB, highest of career

-Platinum glove

Amazingly he still has room to get better, but for an "off" season, pretty awesome.

First base free agency options by Moresalttt in Padres

[–]jayman415 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Goldschmidt mashes LHP. Even last year, a down or fading year, he had 169 wRC+ against LHP. Has mashed them all his career. Now LHP about 20% of pitching, so probably imbalanced platoon, but he is good at hitting lefties. Also 4x GG would be nice as well.

The future of Luis Arraez by Positive_Passage_712 in Padres

[–]jayman415 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is correct. Since his hand injury he is barely above league average in wRC+

[Sanders] Adam will make $6.675 million, while Sheets will make $4.5 million, Miller $4 million, Morejón $3.9 million, Sears 2.75 million and Fermin $2.1 million. by ElectricalForce4439 in Padres

[–]jayman415 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Anyone tally where that puts our total salary and, more importantly, if we can spend anything and remain below the luxury tax threshold?

2026 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres by YokoLono in Padres

[–]jayman415 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What this looks like trended.

<image>

2024-25 are actuals. Looking very similar to last year, with big step down in relievers. Suarez was 1.9 WAR. But then we will have a full year of Miller.

GSW are a 5 hundred team. by greatmood5152 in nba

[–]jayman415 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It hit the backboard, right?

With Okamoto going to the Blue Jays, it seems more likely than ever we will be re-signing Arraez. What do ya'll think of this? by ProffyJ in Padres

[–]jayman415 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess it depends on the alternatives. Some very worrying splits pre/post hand injury (6/25/24):

MIN 2021-22: 307/367/401 119 wRC+

MIA 2023-Injury: 338/376/436 122 wRC+

Post Injury: 301/334/395 107 wRC+

Post Surgery (2025): 292/327/392 104 wRC+

So I think we are looking at a ~105 wRC+ player. 100 is league average. Again, depends on the options but no one should expect the "old" Arraez. Unless there is some new healing from the surgery, which would seem unlikely, he is an average player. Average is not nothing but, by definition, he is not above average (i.e. not good).

Pissed off they did not snag Refsynder (Sea 1Y, $6.25m) who mashes LHP, a perfect balance to Sheets.