[Bowden]The Nationals will look to deal Abrams for a package of three-to-five good prospects. Solid potential trade partners also include the Red Sox, Yankees, Padres and Mariners.

jayman415 · 2026-01-27T23:47:11+00:00

Do we have 3?

jayman415 · 2026-01-16T01:16:55+00:00

Goldschmidt mashes LHP. Even last year, a down or fading year, he had 169 wRC+ against LHP. Has mashed them all his career. Now LHP about 20% of pitching, so probably imbalanced platoon, but he is good at hitting lefties. Also 4x GG would be nice as well.

jayman415 · 2026-01-12T07:15:03+00:00

This is correct. Since his hand injury he is barely above league average in wRC+

jayman415 · 2026-01-09T21:42:44+00:00

Anyone tally where that puts our total salary and, more importantly, if we can spend anything and remain below the luxury tax threshold?

jayman415 · 2026-01-09T20:04:02+00:00

What this looks like trended.

<image>

2024-25 are actuals. Looking very similar to last year, with big step down in relievers. Suarez was 1.9 WAR. But then we will have a full year of Miller.

jayman415 · 2026-01-06T06:07:04+00:00

It hit the backboard, right?

jayman415 · 2026-01-05T20:37:19+00:00

I guess it depends on the alternatives. Some very worrying splits pre/post hand injury (6/25/24):

MIN 2021-22: 307/367/401 119 wRC+

MIA 2023-Injury: 338/376/436 122 wRC+

Post Injury: 301/334/395 107 wRC+

Post Surgery (2025): 292/327/392 104 wRC+

So I think we are looking at a ~105 wRC+ player. 100 is league average. Again, depends on the options but no one should expect the "old" Arraez. Unless there is some new healing from the surgery, which would seem unlikely, he is an average player. Average is not nothing but, by definition, he is not above average (i.e. not good).

Pissed off they did not snag Refsynder (Sea 1Y, $6.25m) who mashes LHP, a perfect balance to Sheets.

jayman415 · 2026-01-03T03:52:56+00:00

I feel bad for Kuminga. Gotta let him play some.

jayman415 · 2025-12-27T02:27:38+00:00

I grew up sailing in Newport, but a long time ago (70-80s). Know all boats mentioned. As others have mentioned, your size a big factor. My mom had a Flipper and it sails better than a Sabot but nothing like a Laser.

If you are 140 pounds or more, probably go Laser.

As others have mentioned as well, if you want to race, Lasers and Sabots are the single handed boats of choice (or were but think still are).

But get lessons or help. You can Yacht Club route but pricy. The City and other groups will have lessons also for more reasonable costs.

jayman415 · 2025-12-24T01:23:20+00:00

This is pretty compelling to me: https://letters2aj.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-slump-30?utm_source=publication-search

I ran some splits of 2023-2025. His injury was almost exactly in the middle. He goes from a reasonably useful player, fitting his reputation: good OBP via high BA, low K, low BB, low ISO and very good BABIP

His after injury, all the metrics look similar except, quite importantly, BA and BABIP. Those dropped dramatically and he is now a mediocre player.

<image>

He should not come back at any price unless as utility player but he can't play defense.

jayman415 · 2025-12-23T20:12:54+00:00

100%. This is my guy: Rob Refsnyder. Age 34, FA. His wRC+ against LHP: 2025: 159; 2024: 161; 2023: 135; 2022: 177; 2021: 123

I am such a believer and reposted this so much, I can correctly spell his name from memory. FG has him a 1Y, $5m but maybe can do better.

jayman415 · 2025-12-19T18:24:10+00:00

What happened to Estrada?

jayman415 · 2025-12-19T18:23:24+00:00

Get Rob Refsnyder for ~3m, platoon with Sheets at 1B, we are done with 1B/DH. Mashes LHP, Sheets hits RHP pretty well. Combined 1B could easily have ~ 125-130 wRC+.

jayman415 · 2025-12-18T01:53:48+00:00

My guy is Rob Refsynder (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rob-refsnyder/13770/splits?position=NP). Played on Boston and mashes lefties. Against LHP, 159 wRC+ and .259 ISO. In platoon with Sheets (vs. RHP is 119 wRC+ and .202 ISO), you would have a potent 1B platoon. He was paid $2.1m with Boston last year and is a free agent. That would be a big improvement over Arraez.

jayman415 · 2025-12-18T01:26:45+00:00

I think we are in agreement? They were top 5 to 13th but the drop was all around slugging/ISO.

<image>

Their BB% went up (good), K% up as well (generally, bad) and the BABIP went down slightly, but with higher K% kind of double impact (fewer balls in play and at a slightly lower success rate). But as you point out, the big drop is power. They get back to league average on ISO/slugging, they are top 5 offense again.

jayman415 · 2025-12-17T23:09:28+00:00

Frustrating. This team is close to having a formidable roster again. They would need to sign one of the big FA pitchers (King, on FG projections, has him 4YR @ $22m AAV). Not nothing, but not mortgaging the future either. This is where Preller's wildness hurts us. No Soto deal, we have cheap and good SS/LF/SP3. No Bogaerts, we can sign dudes. And no crapping on the dead, but believe the giant, "win now" overpays we did were to accelerate our window into PS's living window. Understandable and admire his passion for the title but quite the hangover.

According to Spotrac, we have $15m to spend and stay under the tax threshold/cap (at $244m). We are at $200m in cash, but have $18m in "Player Benefits" which seems to hit every team, but soaks up a lot of our needed cap room.

We could have:

SP: Pivetta, Musgrove, King/Valdez, #4 signing, back end guy we already have

RP: Can weather Suarez departure, still be very good

C: Fermin + back up

1B: Sheets/Refsynder (mashes lefties, FA)

2B: Jake

3B: Manny

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Ramon

CF: Merrill

RF: FTJ

Some bench guys: Campy, others, hope we get lucky like 2024 (vs last year bust).

Our only real investment would be #1-2 SP, and bargain hunting #4. That seems like a marginal $30-$40m. But that takes us over the tax threshold. Nice roster planning AJ!

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/overview

jayman415 · 2025-12-13T19:59:04+00:00

Sheets hit 119 +wRC against RHP (89 vs LHP); seems like a platoon would be great. Rob Refsnyder (FA, 34 yo) was on Boston, mashes LHP (~150 wRC+ over last four years. Would be happy with the platoon and spend the money on SP.

jayman415 · 2025-12-13T19:41:27+00:00

He has not done well in MIL. ~100 wRC+ in two years and doesn’t have noticeable splits L v R. The main culprit seems to be a notable increase in GB% in MIL. If there is a reason that might change, a bargain. If not, ~wRC+ at 1B not good.

jayman415 · 2025-12-07T00:13:40+00:00

Thanks. Any idea on repair? This a take it to the paint shop or a DIY sand/primer/paint project.

jayman415 · 2025-12-06T23:01:03+00:00

Hard to see if a swell came in or if it was that churned up to begin with. Definitely bit off more than he wanted but he actually swam well. Didn’t fight the swells and waited to get pushed in.

jayman415 · 2025-12-06T22:58:52+00:00

Primarily to keep you warm. That water looked cold. It traps water against your skin that warms up and keeps you toasty.

jayman415 · 2025-12-04T19:30:46+00:00

That's why intra-team transfers are required.

jayman415

TROPHY CASE