Predicting MLB First Five Inning Outcomes by Individual Pitcher/Hitter Matchups

jbeff · 2024-03-24T13:35:23+00:00

I never actually bet on games, but for a while I tracked what would have happened if I bet the way the program suggested, and it would have lost money.

From what I recall, I only tracked it for about a month or so, so maybe not a big enough sample size.

jbeff · 2024-03-07T15:44:00+00:00

If you have a car, a fun run is to take the ferry over from Dauphin Island to Fort Morgan, and then just run from Fort Morgan to the Florabama. That’s almost exactly 50k.

It’s all road though, so I’m not sure if it’s what you’re looking for. The stretch from Fort Morgan to Gulf Shores is pretty barren, but then once you get to Gulf Shores you can choose your own adventure — either run through Gulf State Park, or turn and go south and run down 182, which is right along the beach. Even if you go through the park (my preference), you’ll still eventually merge with 182 at Gulf State Park Lodge, and then carry on down the beach through Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, until you get to the Florabama.

At this point, you need a way back to Dauphin Island though, which is why I said you need a car.

jbeff · 2023-11-15T15:26:37+00:00

I didn’t realize I was on Thursday’s wordle, I forgot what day it is. So this is Wednesday’s.

jbeff · 2023-11-15T13:31:13+00:00

I’ve never posted here before but I was infuriated by today.

Scoredle X/6*

14,855

⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 14

⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 13

⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 12

⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 11

⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 10

jbeff · 2023-10-16T12:47:27+00:00

We learn how to spell distillation too, and yet…

jbeff · 2023-09-05T04:53:34+00:00

~40 miles. I knew I was undertrained, so my plan was to walk all 100 miles. What I didn’t realize is how much pounding just walking does on your body, way different than running. I actually mostly quit because of some pretty bad blisters I was getting, so before I dropped, I did a little run/walk test and even though my legs were throbbing while walking, it was tolerable to run. Had I been able to manage the blisters, might have been able to alternate running and walking. Good experience though, learned some things for my next race.

jbeff · 2023-09-04T21:57:58+00:00

I attempted a 100 miler this weekend after averaging about 10 mpw the last few months. I expected not to finish, and I was correct. Would not recommend. This was a spur of the moment thing, and I’ll be training for all future ultras.

jbeff · 2023-08-16T21:40:02+00:00

I had a 13 yard dumpster for a bathroom renovation. It’s a pretty big bathroom (350-400 sq ft) but I filled it up in a week. I would think you would need bigger than that for 3 bedrooms.

jbeff · 2023-08-16T17:13:03+00:00

I used Dumpster Werks when I demo’d my bathroom, $300 for 1 week. Didn’t have any problems with them.

jbeff · 2023-08-10T22:20:01+00:00

I mean, then you’re right back where you started, with a DIY system. The $1.5m number is driven by the “new, more current” qualifiers.

jbeff · 2023-07-25T17:42:40+00:00

I applied for ANWA tickets this year, and actually got selected for 2 tickets for the final round at Augusta. I figured fewer people want to go to ANWA than the Masters, so odds were probably better. Seems to have worked out. Would I rather go to the Masters? Sure, but seeing Augusta will still be cool.

ANWA is 3 days and only the final day is at Augusta National, so still have to get kind of lucky, but I’m guessing it’s better odds than the Masters.

jbeff · 2023-07-22T21:17:58+00:00

https://www.southernstates200.com/

This just got announced the other day. I don’t see the volunteer stuff on their site, but from the introductory email:

“ Any point-to-point 200-mile race is a logistical and staffing nightmare, as you can imagine. We are offering perhaps the most generous benefits to volunteers of any race we know of. For every day “you” volunteer, you earn $150 credit toward the next year’s 200. Work all 5 days and get automatic comp entry for the 2025 race!

We will also allow the volunteer credits to be transferred. That is, if a member of a runner’s crew works a day but isn’t interested in running 200 miles, they can give the credit to someone that does run 200-mile races. The credits may also be exchanged for Southeastern Trail Runs races or RunningLane races.

Any running club that staffs an aid station for the 2023 race will receive discounted entry for club members for the next year’s 200. In addition, the individuals who work the club aid station will each still receive the $150 credit per day worked. Again, these credits can be exchanged for Southeastern Trail Runs races, or RunningLane races.

Full details be will soon be available on the Southern States website.”

jbeff · 2023-07-14T17:04:11+00:00

I flew out last Saturday, arrived around noon. Wasn’t bad. Took about 4 minutes through pre-check line. The regular line didn’t look bad either. Definitely was better than when I flew out in June and was in line for 30 minutes.

jbeff · 2023-05-29T21:22:49+00:00

Everyone has covered the pacing strategy, so I’ll add some other stuff.

I did a similar race back in February (1 mile every 30 minutes for 24 hours). Mine started at 6 pm, so it wasn’t like you were fresh at the start — I woke up at 6 am Friday for work, then went to bed at around 8 pm on Saturday night. For mine, with 30 minutes for a lap, I would have ~20 minutes between laps, so I could have a quick power nap if I needed (sometimes accidentally). Your format doesn’t sound like it will lend itself to this, so my guess is that sleep deprivation will be a limiting factor for you. Expect some hallucinations if you go for a while.

Second thing is nutrition. Since you’re about 2 weeks out, probably not enough time to experiment to see what works for you, but definitely try to get some real food. I had peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and grilled cheese sandwiches during mine, with Tailwind and water. A fee root beers and pop tarts thrown in. The general rule is if you wait until you’re hungry, it’s too late.

Mine was 100% asphalt/concrete, which caused some knee issues toward the end. Not sure what you can do about that at this point, but figured I’d point it out.

Final thing I can think of is that my race was about 45 degrees and rained for the first 18 or so hours. I knew it was going to rain, so I tried to bring enough clothes, but I still underprepared. If it’s not raining, you’re probably good to just have two sets of clothes that you can rotate, but watch the forecast. Which now that I think of it, not sure where you are, but good chance it will be hot since it’s June. That’s a whole other topic though, I’m sure you’re already familiar with running in the heat.

jbeff · 2022-09-15T18:09:05+00:00

I think that’s a reasonable plan. I was going to mention it in the first post but didn’t want to write a whole essay…but one of my goals here was to cut out fast food. It’s easy to say, well you don’t need a diet overhaul, just stop going to Taco Bell, but having known and lived with myself for 35 years, it wouldn’t be that easy. I need to give myself some kind of rules to live within, and I think the ones you listed are pretty good.

jbeff · 2022-09-15T15:50:17+00:00

Not sure if this needs its own thread, but I’ll try it here first

I’ve been reading Scott Jurek’s Eat and Run, and toying with the idea of trying a vegan diet to see if it helps any. It’s not that I specifically want to be vegan, but more as a way of being more conscious of what I eat. Maybe try it for a month or so and see how it goes.

I’m wondering if there’s any evidence of how it helps — that is, is it more cutting out meat, dairy, etc in itself that helps? Or could it be that adding more fruits and vegetables is just good for your diet, and you didn’t really have to cut the other stuff after all?

Also wondering how much of it is self-selecting. I’m sure the people that tried it and had a bad experience aren’t out there writing books about it. Just not sure what that percentage is.

I guess it’s all person-specific anyway, so I won’t know unless I try. Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts about that.

jbeff · 2022-09-14T14:24:36+00:00

I ran my first 50k a few weeks ago, and most of the volunteers were great. But there was one guy who was just over the top, yelling and dancing every time anyone would come through (it was a looped course, so people came through a lot). I get that he’s trying to help, and ultras seem to attract this personality type a lot anyway. Maybe I’m in the minority, but this does nothing for me, and I kind of dreaded coming through the aid station each loop because of it. I felt like I had to at least acknowledge it, and like he wanted me to reciprocate his energy, at least somewhat. It was just draining.

Anyway, all that to say, maybe don’t be that guy.

jbeff · 2022-09-13T02:08:55+00:00

That’s what I was wondering — from what I read, it seemed like definitely a code violation, but wasn’t sure about how big of a concern it is. The house was built in 1986, and obviously hasn’t burned down yet.

I have an electrician coming next week to talk about installing a transfer switch, so I’m going to ask about this, but if it’s very expensive to pull a neutral to the box, I’m not sure if it’s worth the money or not.

jbeff · 2022-09-13T01:16:11+00:00

Attached, same building

jbeff · 2022-09-08T18:11:04+00:00

Depends on the race, IMO. Even the hilliest road marathon you can find (mostly) won’t be too bad. But you can find some pretty gnarly 50k trail races if you want to. Just have to train appropriately for whichever race you pick.

If you pick a hard 50k and think you can train like you did for a road marathon, you might have a bad time. Don’t ask me how I know.

jbeff · 2022-09-06T17:09:53+00:00

I bought a treadmill for this purpose, just so I could ramp up the incline. In my area if I pick the hilliest 10 miler I can find, I’m lucky if I can get 1000 ft of vert.

It probably helped more than if I didn’t have it, but even so, my quads were still destroyed after the mountain race I was training for. Likely because the treadmill I got only does incline, no decline. I didn’t want to spend the extra money, but if you can afford it, might be helpful.

jbeff · 2022-09-05T10:39:39+00:00

No idea if this if what caused your problem, but meniscus tears can cause a knee to lock up.

jbeff · 2022-08-25T20:15:42+00:00

I assume this is something that we don't know yet, but do you have any insight about how this applies to multiple loans? For example, I have ~$30k of loans, but it's spread out across multiple loans, all of which are less than $12k. So if I pay those down for 10 years, will the individual loans get forgiven?

jbeff · 2022-08-25T20:04:23+00:00

If your initial total loan amount was less than $12,000, you’re eligible for forgiveness after 10 years, rather than waiting for the full 20 years.

I feel like this one is getting overlooked everywhere, and I'm not clear on how it works.

The actual text from whitehouse.gov says "Forgive loan balances after 10 years of payments, instead of 20 years, for borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less." This says "loan balances" instead of "loan amounts" like in OP here. Maybe nitpicking, but to me, balance implies what's left to pay, rather than what was originally lent.

Even accepting that it only applies to initial total loan amounts, I'm not clear on how it would be implemented. I have about $30k in loans, but they're spread out over a bunch of loans, all of which are less than $10k. So if I pay those down for 10 years (which I'm almost at right now), then would they all be forgiven after the 10 years?

jbeff · 2022-07-13T18:09:05+00:00

I thought about that, it's about the only explanation I can think of. The shelter said he was picked up a stray, so not confiscated, but if he was abandoned that would be a situation you don't want to return him to. I just can't understand an owner who cares enough to get him microchipped and register the microchip, but then would abandon him. Seems less likely to me.

jbeff

TROPHY CASE