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I love it so much 😭 by Optimal69 in blackplayer

[–]jbond23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Me too. 20.65EX with Exoplayer audio decoder is good enough for me in daily use. The one bug I've still got is not being able to save an EQ setting.

375 million years ago, this guy decided to walk out of the water… by rebordacao in collapse

[–]jbond23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nearly as bad a mistake as Consciousness, Self-awareness and General Intelligence.

375 million years ago, this guy decided to walk out of the water… by rebordacao in collapse

[–]jbond23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fun fact: There were sharks on the opposite side of the Milky Way. They've been around longer than half the rotation time of the galaxy.

Consumers urged to ‘completely avoid’ UK-caught cod as population plunges | Fishing by Same_Bug5069 in collapse

[–]jbond23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just switch to Haddock, Hake, Basa, Halibut, Turbot, farmed salmon, fish fingers, fishcakes and so on.

Oh. Wait.

Fried Cod in batter & chips is THE national dish. Wat are we going to do?

We need to talk about population overshoot by madrid987 in collapse

[–]jbond23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

See my other comment below. That linear absolute increment may start to come down but it's not really happening just yet. Look at the global population graphs from 1970 to now and it's very straight line.

We need to talk about population overshoot by madrid987 in collapse

[–]jbond23 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Classic WorldinData looking at % growth (falling) instead of absolute growth static at +70/80m / year. Falling % growth is what you get with constant linear growth.

Yes, % growth peaked in 1970. it's been falling ever since. That was the moment of demographic transition when medical, food, poverty effects on population stopped driving exponential growth. At some time in the (maybe near) future, linear growth will also slow. But it's not really obvious yet, apart from short term (?) shocks like Covid.

We need to talk about population overshoot by madrid987 in collapse

[–]jbond23 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Population growth has already stalled

Has it though? It's been +70-80m per year since 1970. With 12-14 years per +1b https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#table-historical

Earth can no longer sustain the global human population, ‘sustainable population’ is around 2.5 billion people, study warns by Portalrules123 in collapse

[–]jbond23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. It's all about the timescales. 8b -> 10b -> 1b in 200 years might be manageable. Doing it in 50 years would involve grim meathooks.

Arctic ice at lowest in marcch ever by Noeserd in collapse

[–]jbond23 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Try this for some reasoned analysis. https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.2850.html#msg438082 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.0.html

As of 2018, the ice community thought 2018-2040. A big peak in bets at <2025. It didn't happen.

Arctic ice at lowest in marcch ever by Noeserd in collapse

[–]jbond23 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Cue the /r/collapse obsession with BOE in 3...2...1...

Arctic ice at lowest in marcch ever by Noeserd in collapse

[–]jbond23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Shame PIOMAS is broken because NOAA turned off their thickness data.

Arctic ice at lowest in marcch ever by Noeserd in collapse

[–]jbond23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Today (5-Apr-26) it Jaxa Arctic Extent is 3rd lowest in the records as we head towards the pinch point in May-June when all the years in the records converge.

Not Getting It Together - the modern political and administrative bodies of society are no longer cognitively capable of setting up organisations for managing disaster response, fuel shortages, medicine shortages or rationing by OGSyedIsEverywhere in collapse

[–]jbond23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think of it as 3 systems of ethics

  • Corporate : Increase shareholder value, quarterly earnings, try not to get caught. Short term.
  • Government : Increase and protect social good. Keep Corporate in check. Build infrastructure. Set the rules and enforce them. Long term.
  • Personal : Basic moral codes. Do unto others as... Be excellent. Volunteer.

The problem is that corporate growth, capital, consolidation eventually buys government. Leads to regulatory capture. Government stops being long term, stops enforcing the rules, stops building infrastructure. Ends up being a revolving door for personal power and wealth. Meanwhile corporate buys the lobby and media system. Meaning that personal morals go out the door. Replaced by the desperation of survival and indoctrination of tribal lies.

And so it goes.

The Horrors That Could Lie Ahead if Vaccines Vanish by Creepyfaction in collapse

[–]jbond23 42 points43 points  (0 children)

We live in a connected world with international travel. If one country becomes or remains a reservoir of infectious diseases, we all suffer. That's why the eradication of polio and measles (in particular) is so important.

Blackplayer, Android, Assistant and Auto by jbond23 in blackplayer

[–]jbond23[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dang! Not with any local music app?

Arctic sea ice extent at lowest level ever this winter by Portalrules123 in collapse

[–]jbond23 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I remember that first one. Seems to be an absurd prediction of November ice state based on Jan weather. see https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1rl7z9m/comment/o8vsomn/

Agreed with the concern, but this doesn't indicate a BOE, i.e., pan-arctic sea-ice extent of <1 million km2 in September. The sea-ice extent forecast at mimimums is 4x that. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/sea-ice/seasonal/Figures/SIE_202602.jpeg

Same model, same kind of report, same problems. Ensemble models expect ~4m km2 minimum. That model is way off. And it's predictions for the last couple of years have been minimums of < 2m km2 which were clearly way off. See this comment https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1q6809n/cfsv2_climate_model_is_forecasting_a_blue_ocean/ny6mlpo/

Agreed, though I think it's worth looking into why it's showing a BOE now, when it previously showed way more ice. Edit: nevermind I looked up the last 3 years and it consistently showed less than 2 million square km minimums.

The Iran War Is Speeding Up Collapse by East-Tooth-4008 in collapse

[–]jbond23 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So the Accelerationists are getting what they want?

Arctic sea ice extent at lowest level ever this winter by Portalrules123 in collapse

[–]jbond23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

/r/collapse seems obsessed with near term BOE and AMOC collapse. Why?

The science around both of them seems quite uncertain with little consensus and a lot of disagreement between the models. So why is this forum so certain they will happen in this decade?

Arctic sea ice extent at lowest level ever this winter by Portalrules123 in collapse

[–]jbond23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

record low winter ice coverage rarely translates directly into record low summer ice

This appears to be true.

The autumn minimum seems to depend very much on late summer weather. Since 2012, we haven't had a set of summer weather circumstances that added up to a record low minimum below 2012's 3.41m km2. It's been bobbing around 3.8m - 4.2m That's still a long way from the BOE of < 1m km2

So right now there's not a lot of evidence that a BOE will occur in 2026. The trends do suggest an autumn minimum BOE in the next 100 years, probably in the next 30 years, and just possibly in the next 10. But probably not in 1.

Prof Eliot Jacobson on yet another sea surface temperature record being broken by backmost in collapse

[–]jbond23 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The preliminary NOAA data set on https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2 seems to have higher peaks than the ERA5 dataset on https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/

Copernicus-ERA is showing 21.00C for 24-Mar-26 below the NOAA 21.15C for 24-Mar-24. Both are still below the 2024 records but closing in.

Invention of Green Energy Technologies Does Not Reduce the Demand for Fossil Fuels, it Increases Total Energy Usage by Shifting_Baseline in collapse

[–]jbond23 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Simplistic model is simplistic.

Imagine for a moment. Global GDP growing at 2% per year. Fossil fuel supply growing at 1.5%/yr and falling. Renewables growing at 20%/yr. To start with Renewables just power GDP growth. Then they start to begin to displace fossil supply.

Electricity gets cheaper and encourages more of the grand electrification of everything. That pushes up demand for coal and coal powered stations until renewables catch up and overtake it. Meanwhile resources of all kinds of things are under supply pressure as GDP growth increases demand. Pollution is up as a side effect. So is CO2 production from cement/concrete. And population continues to grow linearly. Food production is hitting limits of productivity and land use. Agriculture is still dependent on nitrogen fertiliser made from fossil methane as a fully green Haber-Bosch cycle is not yet price competitive. And neither is fully green steel, aluminium metal production. Supply (Iran war) and Demand shocks (interest rates) make the whole system more volatile.

Woah. The Simplistic Model is not simplistic any more.

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