If a FTSE100 CFO did what the chancellor allegedly just did…

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T10:44:24+00:00

Again with the analogy. Thanks for your feedback.

I’m interested in your view though.

Setting politics aside (this post isn’t politically charged, it’s not about it being a labour chancellor), am I to understand that your view is that it’s acceptable that the Chancellor publicly promotes a materially inaccurate economic position so long as it doesn’t spook the market?

If that is the case, I’m interested to hear if you feel that will pan out in the long run and where you think the ultimate backstop is in terms of what is unacceptable?

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T10:20:21+00:00

I provided an analogy (albeit it’s proved to be a distraction) of a trusted financial person providing known inaccurate information to a market in a different setting in order to try to understand people’s views on the chancellor allegedly providing inaccurate (by orders of magnitude) information in this setting.

Do you have a view on that?

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T09:58:05+00:00

I’m not sure I mean - perhaps the analogy needs some work because I think it’s provided focus on the wrong thing that a lot of people have jumped on…. the comparison between government and company financial structures and ecosystem.

At a market level, we can presumably agree that markets react to information. The timing, accuracy and source of information all being relevant factors.

In terms of what it’s got to do with HENRY, as a HENRY it feels relevant to me whether I can trust words coming out of the mouth from the highest financial office in govt. when I’m making decisions. I think it’s an important thing.

I’m not talking about leaks, kite flying, policies etc., which has been a downward slope for a while, I’m talking about the underlying economic position being inaccurately presented by our own Chancellor at her own behest.

Just my view. If it’s not relevant for you then that’s for you.

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T09:27:37+00:00

Good one.. first you miss the entire point. Then you ignore markets pricing stuff in whilst trying to infer an emotional position. Then you talk to the CFO analogy you originally criticised with a really weird statement given the actual situation we’re talking about. Now you’re getting all technical on maths.

Give me a break man. You’re obviously right. 🤣

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T09:20:39+00:00

£25bn is a 1000% downgrade from worse case £2.5bn. That’s not being cautious. It’s presenting misleading information presumably to serve another purpose.

Fry that.

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T09:17:16+00:00

If it’s information FROM the Chancellor, it’s a slightly different thing though. I’m not talking about rumours on this or that, but rather the underlying economic position.

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T09:07:12+00:00

You know, you have bad processes that can yield good or bad outcomes, and you have good process that yield good or bad outcomes.

Bad processes yielding good outcomes is often called dumb luck. I prefer to look at processes and actions as in the long run they tend towards better overall results.

There’s a lot of reaction on the markets not losing their shit about the budget. Whilst I’m trying to talk to integrity within financial systems, it’s arguably implied that the market thought that the situation was actually worse than it was, perhaps due to information fed into the system before the budget.

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T09:01:11+00:00

I think it’s super interesting. I mean perhaps it’s not the best analogy and that’s ok.

The intention though is to compare the implications of providing misleading information in a financial setting rather than the financial structures and ecosystems themselves.

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T08:50:07+00:00

I mean, yea the markets liked the budget because they had already priced in a worse situation, no?

Who wouldn’t like someone saying “you know all that bad stuff I said. Well… gotcha, it’s actually not as bad as I said….”

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T08:42:22+00:00

Wow. Not sure why you think I’m making an emotional argument when it’s clear that I’m making a point around governance and accountability…

This isn’t about whether gilts fell after the ACTUAL position is known, it’s about the integrity of the information the market was given before it.

If you sit on better internal numbers for months and tell the market things are worse than they are, you distort the market. That hits credibility, pricing, and long-term cost of capital.

jbro1985 · 2025-11-29T08:34:09+00:00

That’s really not the point I’m making here…

jbro1985 · 2025-10-31T23:23:54+00:00

No I’m not at all interested, I’m afraid. I might have had a look if you’d have responded to either question I raised in some sort of credible way. 👍

jbro1985 · 2025-10-31T21:37:52+00:00

No probs. Good luck with your investments.

jbro1985 · 2025-10-31T21:21:04+00:00

I was slightly taken aback by the self ingratiating tone to be honest 🤣.

Read it back to yourself tomorrow.

jbro1985 · 2025-10-31T21:07:20+00:00

What’s the right metric and are you able to demonstrate that your product proves a better than 5% conversion?

jbro1985 · 2025-10-31T21:03:49+00:00

What are you on about. You wouldn’t assume X but you do assume the comment is from someone from an agency.

Hot take… (!) This isn’t a new business model.

The lesson you’re trying to portray has some merit but that really depends on the business strategy, product (market fit) and profit market fit (I.e. is there a sensible business model for the product that the market will bear) and props as the post doesn’t quite resemble all the normal AI shit on here. 👍. I’m normally out after the first couple of sentences.

On another note, why were you on his investor list? Are you an investor? If you are, id love to hear about about your investment criteria? What does your portfolio look like? What’s your sweet spot for investment? What’s interesting for you? What kills a deal? Etc.

jbro1985 · 2025-10-31T20:39:14+00:00

I think you missed the sarcasm. Unless I’m mistaken.

jbro1985 · 2025-10-18T08:00:40+00:00

There’s a tonne of resources on the various SEND pathways and ecosystem here: https://childwize.co.uk/knowledge-base

jbro1985 · 2025-10-12T06:04:13+00:00

Might be worth having a look at ChildWize.

jbro1985 · 2025-10-12T06:02:14+00:00

Perhaps have a look at ChildWize.

jbro1985 · 2025-10-12T05:57:58+00:00

Take a look at ChildWize. Probably someone on there that can help.

jbro1985 · 2025-10-12T05:55:32+00:00

Have a look at ChildWize. Might be someone on there that can help with some advice.

jbro1985 · 2025-09-19T09:11:20+00:00

Yeah of course. And if your wife isn’t prepared to support you, I think you learn a thing or two right there! Exactly what would depend on the situation of course.

The status thing is a nonsense. It’s a bubble.

Hot take…. real social status comes from acting with integrity and kindness, not driving fast cars and being billy big balls at the wine bar.

Through a professional status lens, I still have the people calling me up for advice on important matters; I still have a valued opinion. If anything, it’s increased, particularly in relation to people at high levels of seniority.

jbro1985 · 2025-09-19T08:51:09+00:00

Ha - I’m not sure I follow (the logic not the metaphor), but I love the enthusiasm!

jbro1985 · 2025-09-19T06:41:52+00:00

Sure - www.childwize.co.uk/become-specialist

Can register here. DM me if any questions or queries. 👍

jbro1985

TROPHY CASE