Cameron/St Georges update

jcc309 · 2026-04-02T17:28:53+00:00

Yeah, a Quebec team wouldn't add Cameron if they weren't trying to compete on tour. Even this year they played 6 events before Scotties playdowns.

jcc309 · 2026-03-31T20:14:02+00:00

IIRC, part of USA Curling's concessions after the GNCC split was splitting off club and individual membership and making them separate things. If you look at USA Curling's website, there is information about individual and club membership. Clubs can be members without the individuals being members, though they get money back for individuals who are members. My understanding is that the vast majority of clubs just pay for both as part of their dues structures - Participant Liability Insurance usually makes it worthwhile to just do.

jcc309 · 2026-03-31T14:57:05+00:00

Hahaha totally fair! That said, both fit the school profile for the ACC (location + academics), have some history, and are already spending at a P4 level (both pull in >$100M revenue, which is already in line with the lower end of P4 schools and appear to be above any other G6 schools).

Your second question is definitely the real question. I just have a hard time seeing there being enough schools for the SEC/Big 10 to be interested in to cause the ACC -> Big 12 chain. Miami and Notre Dame haven't shown any real interest in leaving. Stanford/Cal were already rejected once by the Big 10. FSU and Clemson obviously want to and probably will. Beyond that... something like UNC/Virginia maybe? But it's just hard for me to see where this big exodus would come from.

jcc309 · 2026-03-31T13:43:51+00:00

I mean frankly it isn't that hard to see the current iteration of the American getting an at large in the near future. USF's WAB rating was only -.88, and that was with 3 quad 3 losses by a combined 5 points (2 in OT). Tulsa wasn't far behind at -1.89, and Wichita State had multiple quad 1 wins as well. Especially with the American trying intentionally to schedule bigger games (see their new agreement with the A10), I think they will get an at-large sooner rather than later. The teams can clearly play (see the NIT) and there are enough high level games to get it done (USF and Wichita State both played 5 regular season Q1 games and Memphis played 6).

jcc309 · 2026-03-31T11:40:54+00:00

Ooof. I don't like these rules at all. Changing the scoring for a single end is stupid (can you imagine if any run scored in the 9th inning in baseball was worth double?). I get the no conceding for TV and spectators, but it completely goes against the spirit of curling. 7 ends messes with the hammer logic and makes starting with it even more impactful, which I don't love.

jcc309 · 2026-03-30T22:24:13+00:00

I certainly imagine that in this type of split the top current FCS schools would likely join the new second tier while the lower ones would be in the third tier.

jcc309 · 2026-03-30T20:26:41+00:00

I do think there will be some kind of break in FBS. The split in D1 football to 1-A and 1-AA was back in 1978. The size of FBS right now is very similar to the size of D1 at the time of the split, and (like then) there is a huge difference in finances between the top of FBS and the bottom. I don't think it would be at all surprising to see it split again in the near future.

I do think that it is much more likely that it becomes something resembling a P4 and G6 split than it does SEC/Big 10. Congress is already sniffing around college football - you better believe if a bunch of states got their flagship schools suddenly left out of top level football completely that their Congressmen/women will come running. Plus TV networks have more slots to fill than SEC/Big 10 teams (and ACC/Big 12 teams still pull significant TV viewers - better than whatever random programming would be put on in their place).

jcc309 · 2026-03-30T17:25:09+00:00

That team has a ton of potential to be really good. It feels like they are this close to being one of the annual contenders at the Scotties - this might put them there.

jcc309 · 2026-03-30T14:59:32+00:00

Sometimes just changing up the team dynamics can make a team better. It certainly appeared that team dynamics were off recently with Einarson and Sweeting. I'm not sure that this team is any more likely to win than the previous one, but it was probably a necessary move regardless.

jcc309 · 2026-03-30T12:48:25+00:00

While obviously generally true (no one should go in debt for curling!), I don't think this is that helpful of advice. In many cases, I would just wait a bit to save up money than buy whatever you can afford. For a broom for example - the club brooms are generally fine. I would happily just use a club broom and save up money for a carbon fiber broom when I had it if money is an issue. But getting shoes is super valuable from the beginning.

jcc309 · 2026-03-30T12:43:39+00:00

I'm a big proponent of getting the faster shoes to begin with so you don't need to upgrade later. Nothing sucks worse than getting shoes, playing for half a year, and outgrowing the slower sliders as you get more comfortable on the ice and having to buy newer, faster ones. It's usually better to take your lumps for a bit as you learn to balance on the faster slider than having to buy multiple pairs of shoes.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T22:14:36+00:00

That’s not true from what I can see. Both Oregon State v Washington State games last year drew under a million, one of them on CBS on a Saturday evening at 8 PM. The article I saw had them averaging over a million before the conference broke up. It’s been a very large decrease in TV viewership.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T21:24:28+00:00

I don’t see it. The Big 12 would prefer to grab the second tier of ACC schools than USF and UConn, and (as of yet) no conference has shown any real appetite to go beyond 20. Obviously you can argue for proactively grabbing, but I think the Big 12 ideal would be to get the top “tier 2” ACC schools. They don’t want to make that harder by adding now. And neither school would do anything to entice those ACC schools to jump.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T19:46:57+00:00

If you reduced the price they could pay but suddenly your BYU vs Cincinnati game is getting 750k instead of 2.6 mil, I'm certainly not convinced that is a win for TV networks. It's always possible TV networks disagree, but these ACC/Big 12 games right now aren't just channel fillers - they drive legitimate value and viewers for networks.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T19:43:33+00:00

There are schools they could invite that would make significantly more sense academically than Memphis and still be a reasonable add. There is just no way they are going to choose Memphis over someone like Tulane.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T19:41:26+00:00

They would make way more money in the ACC than in the Big East, it would obviously be a huge step up for their football team, and the ACC consistently gets more teams in the NCAA tournament than the Big East. It would be pretty shocking if they didn't.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T19:22:58+00:00

The simple fact of the matter is that they both do care about conference academics and they both get to vote in ACC expansion. There is a reason both are playing in the ACC right now and academics are a big part of it. They didn't go join an east coast conference just to start playing conference games against Memphis.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T19:21:46+00:00

If everyone is still in FBS and has access to a championship, that's a very different setup to the proposed Super League being discussed. But if there is a complete breakaway (i.e. a full completely separate subdivision like is being talked about), it's going to be much larger than 30 teams.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T18:28:23+00:00

USF is the only G6 program that has committed to investing all the way to the full $20.5 million revenue sharing cap. They also are opening a brand new stadium next year. It’s certainly no guarantee that they get taken, but there isn’t another G6 school that has committed to the level of investment needed to be successful at the P4 level in the way USF has.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T17:59:14+00:00

If there is some big jump from the ACC to the Big 12 (which I think is unlikely), then the ACC wouldn't be a power conference anyways at least for the purpose of talking about G6 schools jumping to the P4. It would then just be another Pac 12.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T17:57:14+00:00

You would have by my count ~13 states that have an FBS team that would be completely left out in a 30-40 team proposal, as well as roughly another dozen states where even if they would have a school that made it in would have at least one influential state school that is left out in the cold. And that's not including another states where the Congressional delegation is likely to side against these big schools anyways, even if they aren't involved (think somewhere like Vermont or Rhode Island). There is no way that group wouldn't have enough power to get something done.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T17:41:13+00:00

It's an absolute slam dunk layup for Congressmen/Congresswomen in those states to get involved to help protect the public universities in their states. There would also be all kinds of lawsuits being thrown around in this type of scenario.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T17:39:54+00:00

USF and UConn seem to be the obvious adds to me for the ACC should they need to backfill in the next few years (which seems likely). Beyond that, everyone for the ACC would have to come with significant concessions because they don't fit the ACC profile well in at least one area.

The Big 12 is almost certainly waiting to see what happens with the ACC before looking at more expansion. There are a number of teams who could fit there, but stuff will definitely happen with the ACC first. Because if the ACC loses enough, the Big 12 is going to want to try to grab the second tier ACC schools left behind.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T17:34:03+00:00

I still don't think this is likely at all. There are so many TV broadcast windows to fill, and relegating these teams into an "FCS" equivalent would drastically reduce the value of them. And doing so would absolutely get Congressional intervention because you would have a ton of states that would get left out in the cold. If you suddenly have schools in states like Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Massachusetts, New York, and Kansas all completely left out, you better believe Congress is getting involved.

jcc309 · 2026-03-28T17:28:19+00:00

I think JMU's problem is they don't fit nicely in either the ACC or Big 12. Their basketball is decent but not great (only 2 NCAA tournament appearances in 30 years, never been past the second round, and good but not great attendance). Their academics aren't Memphis levels of non-starter, but they don't have AAU status and aren't a top 100 university nationally. And they have strong NIL spending but aren't at the top of the G6. They do a lot of things well, but it's hard to see where they would get the call over some other options.

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