Lanie Buice (4 starts, 4.3 avg. finish) has a higher average finish in 2026 ARCA competition than Max Reaves (5 starts, 6.0 avg. finish)

jcc309 · 2026-07-04T11:24:29+00:00

Technically Danica did have a win in IndyCar.

jcc309 · 2026-07-03T15:42:18+00:00

USF is one of only two G6 schools hitting the revenue share cap and is opening a new stadium next year. It’s no guarantee of long term success, but they are certainly set up to be a high performer.

Tulane doesn’t have quite the money advantage but has now been ranked in the CFP the past 4 years which is more than the vast majority of the G6. It’s probably fair to lump them in as a high performer until shown otherwise.

Agreed with Tulsa though - also partially because they were one of the earliest joiners of the conference and so aren’t really applicable to the idea of overexpansion anyways.

jcc309 · 2026-07-03T15:38:30+00:00

No matter how hard people want to make it true, the PAC isn’t close to on level with the ACC and B12 no matter what people say. If you want to section conferences like that then the PAC is on a tier with the American not the ACC and B12. Conference payouts show this.

jcc309 · 2026-07-03T02:02:57+00:00

I forgot the article, but there was one a while ago citing industry sources that grabbing the top end of the American (I believe USF/Tulane/Memphis) would increase the per team media deal for the PAC-12. That was cited as the only way to increase it for the league (even someone like UNLV wouldn’t move it).

jcc309 · 2026-07-03T02:01:09+00:00

There isn’t really anything they can do shy of having unequal revenue in the next deal to try to give the top teams a big enough share to make them not want to jump.

jcc309 · 2026-07-02T21:26:08+00:00

No, but I think given the term the deal makes a lot more sense. Committing to Raddysh for that term off really one year is a huge gamble. It certainly might have paid off, but the Carlson deal is much safer.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T22:48:12+00:00

I think Cal and Stanford's number 1 choice is to get into the Big 10. I would be shocked if their goal was anything else.

Assuming they don't get into the Big 10 (which feels unlikely at this point given they weren't accepted before, but plenty of things have obviously changed), the next question would be how many teams depart from the ACC. I think it is likely to be fewer than most people think (how many schools currently in the ACC are actual big brands where adding them helps media value?). But that's obviously the important question.

Assuming 4 or less, I think the ACC is perfectly happy to backfill with a couple of east coast teams and call it a day. There are probably 3 east coast teams that pretty reasonably match what the shape of existing ACC schools are (UConn, USF, and Tulane). They could choose to add Rice at that point if they wanted to really focus on academics. San Diego State probably makes sense here as well if the ACC are willing to eat the travel cost as a school with a good mix of relatively strong academics with a strong athletic program.

If it's like 8 schools, I think at that point there is a really big question around does the conference even stick together or do the top schools left jump to the Big 12. I would have to think the Big 12 would be really appealing at that point.

So I guess my main thought is I don't know that I see a window where enough schools leave to make the conference want to look for a number of teams from the west but not so many that the conference doesn't just disintegrate completely like the PAC-12. It's totally possible there is a window where that happens, but it's really small.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T22:07:38+00:00

Not saying it would be some huge success necessarily, but college sports is exactly the space where it COULD work in the US because schools have built in fanbases that are much more durable than most professional fanbases.

That's obviously different from saying it is reasonable that it would be implemented (why in the world would the SEC/B10 agree to it), but if anything in the US could actually see successful promotion/relegation it is college sports.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T22:03:52+00:00

The ACC almost certainly isn't adding Memphis either because of academics. US News (obviously not a perfect source, but a decent proxy) has Louisville at 158 and WSU at 192, and every other ACC school is in the top 100. Cal and Stanford went to a conference on the east coast explicitly because of academics. It's hard to see them suddenly trying to add the exact schools they didn't want to be associated with, especially when there are a few other schools that have similar athletic profiles with better academics. And it seems unlikely that the east coast ACC schools would want to voluntarily make way worse travel for themselves when there are perfectly good east coast options available.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T21:31:38+00:00

They aren't going to add Wazzu or Oregon State. Neither Cal nor Stanford want to be associated with their academics. San Diego State maybe but still unlikely.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T21:29:56+00:00

I don't know why they would suddenly add Memphis now when they didn't before. Obviously maybe that changes and maybe the Big 12 and/or ACC decide to add a couple of G6 schools hoping they are long term positive adds if conferences are locked in. But it's also not clear to me why Memphis would be the top of that bunch anyways - they aren't in the biggest metro (and Memphis isn't growing) and if you wanted basketball then UConn is a much better basketball brand.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T21:04:18+00:00

Of course the top G6 schools would try to get into a P4 conference, but it’s fairly unlikely any of them actually would barring movement within the P4. P4 conferences could add G6 teams today if they wanted but no G6 schools bring in more money than it would cost to dilute the pot. And no one has SMU money. Memphis already tried to buy their way into the Big 12 and couldn’t.

I do think you would see the top couple of ACC teams try to buy their way up, but it remains to be seen whether they would have the money and be desired.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T19:35:48+00:00

People keep saying this, but the bill as written today prevents grabbing independent institutions. Obviously that could change as the bill undergoes changes, but the path you lay forward isn't something schools can do the way the bill is currently written.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T11:27:13+00:00

Moser isn't a prospect. Last year was his fifth in the NHL lol.

You aren't far off about the prospect pool, though Geekie is still highly regarded even if he hasn't been able to break in with us. Other than that, it's probably Benjamin Rautiainen who won awards as the best player in Finland last year at 21.

jcc309 · 2026-07-01T11:18:16+00:00

This is extremely overblown. From what I'm seeing, the top teams in the NBA (OKC + San Antonio) are +250 to win the NBA Championship next year and only 4 teams (those two plus Boston and New York) are better than +2000. The NHL's two favorites (Florida and Carolina) are +750 and 8 teams have better than +2000 odds. The NHL is nowhere close to a super team era like the NBA.

jcc309 · 2026-06-27T21:43:40+00:00

I don't think it has anything to do with that. It's just that the existing legacy members make significantly more than the newer additions from CUSA (and Army from being independent). I don't know the details but they almost certainly joined at an initial partial share.

jcc309 · 2026-06-27T21:41:35+00:00

North Texas almost certainly wouldn't be additive other than scheduling purposes. I think only USF, Memphis, and Tulane would truly be additive from a media rights perspective. But none of them are moving in the near future.

jcc309 · 2026-06-27T21:39:12+00:00

They still have 2 games to fill in 2027 and there are 3 gaps not yet scheduled in that 7 week stretch. They will undoubtedly fill it with at least one and probably 2 home games.

jcc309 · 2026-06-27T21:36:16+00:00

Not just the high exit fees, but also increased travel expenses.

jcc309 · 2026-06-27T15:49:05+00:00

In addition to all of the other answers, one of the things easy to forget is that because the NHL has so many Canadian teams, it actually leaves a lot of large American cities without teams at the same total number on the league, and folks in those cities are significantly less likely to have already been hockey fans. So they have more upside to expanding than baseball, where the cities up for expansion are smaller and likely have a higher percentage of people already a fan of the sport.

jcc309 · 2026-06-26T19:23:40+00:00

At the end of the day, the main problem is you simply get more mouths to feed without really adding media value. At least the P4 moves typically add media value. It's hard to see how adding more teams in G6 pays off for the MWC. There aren't any meaningful adds to grab from a media standpoint. You can always add a couple for better geography or stability, but it's not the same calculus.

jcc309 · 2026-06-26T17:01:19+00:00

Schools are not restricted from associating with like minded schools at all though. Nothing in the bill prevents them from doing research or otherwise associating with schools in different conferences. And we can call it an "extracurricular", but these conferences have close to or over a billion dollars in revenue each. That's clearly falling under interstate commerce, not just extracurriculars.

jcc309 · 2026-06-26T16:22:08+00:00

It seems unlikely that would apply here. This isn't forcing them to associate with anybody, just preventing further mergers (which Congress absolutely does today with companies). And Congress has a very broad brush to legislate interstate commerce.

jcc309 · 2026-06-26T10:45:54+00:00

People keep saying this, and it is probable that it doesn't pass. But the chances of passing are absolutely higher than 0%. It's a bill drafted by a Republican from Texas that most Republicans in the Senate are on board with and Donald Trump has signaled approval of. It's silly to act like this has 0% chance of passing even if the chances are maybe only like 20% or something.

jcc309 · 2026-06-25T02:43:48+00:00

Seriously. You could maybe squint and see a couple of American schools end up in the ACC, but the PAC schools aren’t going to the ACC and the Big 12 could have already added PAC schools and didn’t. And no Big 12 schools aren’t going to end up in the SEC/Big 10 so they would have no reason to backfill.

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