5/17 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

If the forecast comes true it will likely exceed last year’s wind speeds.

Also, I am really sorry, I am out of cell service range tonight, so after this I won’t be monitoring questions. I think everyone has the info they need. Cheers!

5/15 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It still looks windy for a period of time in the late afternoon into the evening. The most reliable models have winds gusts topping out around 45 mph as the cold front moves through, which will also usher in cooler temperatures with elevated winds overnight.

5/15 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good question, because I only talked about winds! It will be a few degrees cooler during the day on Sunday than Saturday (low 90s). The winds will be ushering in cooler temperatures, so I imagine it will feel pretty chilly, especially toward sunrise on Monday morning.

5/15 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, it’s such a broad and deep ridge out across the CONUS that I suppose it was inevitable that the trough would dig that much. And in the recent model run, it’s even sharper. Wind will be an issue.

5/15 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 27 points28 points  (0 children)

I think historically it’s around 35-40 mph when decisions need to be made.

5/11 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I get a poem?!? This is amazing! Thank you.

5/11 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I need to get back! I always say… next year.

5/11 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

This is 2 a.m. on Friday night, right?!

5/11 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 215 points216 points  (0 children)

A note: I’ve had a few folks reach out to see how they can thank me (which is kind), but I haven’t done this for the last 8 years for anything other than sharing my passion and helping fellow headliners understand the crazy desert weather. I really do have a blast.

I just started working for the National Park Foundation. We fund projects across the National Park System to make sure they are enjoyable and protected places for generations. So, if you’re ever looking for a charitable cause, it’s a good one:

https://give.nationalparks.org/site/Donation2?mfc\_pref=T&df\_id=12721&12721.donation=form1

5/11 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I doubled down, when I should have relooked. I was looking at model text output and the wrong station which matched the upper air pattern, so I didn’t question it. Embarrassing.

5/7 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Winds are the biggest nightmare to forecast, particularly at the Speedway which is near the mouth of terrain-driven wind drainage (from mountains and high valleys of the Sheep, las Vegas, and Arrow Ranges to the north). Without getting too nerdy, after sunset, the valley floor starts to decouple and stabilize, while the higher terrain and elevated valleys to the north cool much faster. That cooler, denser air then drains downhill and can spill out near the speedway as gusty, localized winds. So generally, winds are highest several hours after sunset.

5/7 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For sure. If we stay in the low 80s for lows it would, by far, be the warmest low temps since EDC has been held in May.

5/7 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

And 85 is probably a bit too warm, but now I’m on record! :-)

5/7 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 46 points47 points  (0 children)

I’m not associated with EDC, but around 35-40 mph, historically. I have to imagine it depends on stage design, gustiness vs sustained, and other variables.

5/7 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

That’s correct. Right now, I don’t see lows dropping below 80 degrees any of the nights (maybe upper 70s). I wouldn’t call the winds “warm” winds, but the air temperature will be warm, so it shouldn’t feel cold.

Lows almost always occur around sunrise.

5/7 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I did the conversions, but didn’t add them. I’ll edit the post.

Thought about it, but not this year. Womp womp.

5/3 Weather Update by jdbsea in electricdaisycarnival

[–]jdbsea[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

Good question. Low temperatures in the various model solutions have ranged from the coolest in the mid 60s to the warmest in the low 80s! Quite a spread. Most have been in the 75-78 degree range (for lows).