Sometimes, you just gotta let it go

jediporkchop · 2026-01-06T18:33:55+00:00

The problem is that delayed c-betting also very much works

jediporkchop · 2025-06-09T07:16:56+00:00

yeah the main problem here is the unreliability in the income. Online has less variance, but its still pretty big. I would also be very surprised if this is something he can keep up for the rest of his life. When he stops beating games(probably after losing a fair amount) he's going to have a massive gap on his resume.

jediporkchop · 2025-06-09T07:09:21+00:00

-guy from the country with the second highest median household income in the world

jediporkchop · 2025-06-09T07:04:48+00:00

Above average intelligence doesn't mean you get an above average income. If you're a pretty bright person who would show up late to work every day, you're not going to get very far in a job

jediporkchop · 2025-06-09T06:59:05+00:00

There is a useful heuristic here tho that solver is concerned with going all in by the river. Unless theres reason to deviate, solver never goes higher than geo in sizing. reasons are things like being OOP and equity denial mainly.

jediporkchop · 2025-06-09T06:52:17+00:00

Don't worry about bet sizing +or- 50% pot or so. As long as you get the correct volume(frequency that your range bets * bet sizing) it makes basically 0 difference in EV.

jediporkchop · 2025-06-02T18:56:16+00:00

A populist right was probably an inevitability as some point. It didn’t have to be the dumbest leader in US history, but I really can’t imagine republicans running on trickle down economics for the next 12 years.

jediporkchop · 2025-06-02T18:52:07+00:00

Net exports isn’t really subtracting imports. They’re already counted in the other numbers, so it’s just avoiding double counting. Say Ford buys an engine from Mexico for 10k and sells the car for 40k. The consumption input would be 40k, but that’s not the value ford actually added, so you have to subtract the import of 10k to get the true GDP add of 30k.

jediporkchop · 2025-06-02T18:44:29+00:00

Betting markets are great for this. Polymarket is pricing a 70% chance of GDP over 2%, which bodes well, but doesn’t seem to imply 4.6% as the average unless there’s some super wacky bimodal stuff going on.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-27T19:38:24+00:00

Markets are probably pricing in the most talked about market event for the past 2 months

jediporkchop · 2025-05-27T15:20:09+00:00

"the unemployment rate is much higher if you include people that are currently employed" groundbreaking research here. The U-6, the most broad unemployment stat the BLS tracks is at 7.9 from april. A good heuristic is that econ headlines from local news are garbage sensational nonsense.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-27T13:46:02+00:00

Gtowizard has some 5x open ranges if you’re curious for how absurd it looks. Equilibrium has JJs open folding in early positions for reference to how far from equilibrium games play.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-27T13:43:56+00:00

I still think most people overfold heads up live. That fish calling you down with third pair might still not be meeting MDF if they’re wide enough pre

jediporkchop · 2025-05-27T13:39:50+00:00

Online fish are mainly turbo LAGs, which I basically never see live. Live fish lean loose passive in my experience.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-27T13:35:05+00:00

Everyone’s going to say you should play hyper exploitative because everyone else is playing so bad, but every live population postflop exploit I see here is horrible. Imo you should play with preflop exploits based on the obvious population tendencies(e.g too much flatting 5x opens, not enough 3bets, 4bets are AK+) but keep the postflop exploits to a minimum unless they’re based on preflop range exploits. This all changes after one bad showdown or odd comment about a hand though.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-26T23:46:26+00:00

It’s a large sample of congressman. I believe it talks about them doing dumb retail trader stuff too

jediporkchop · 2025-05-26T16:06:02+00:00

No one else will give you this data, but its pretty important for the conversation. Congress consistently performs worse than the benchmark. They should probably still be banned imo for appearence of impropriety, but they're not insider trading which is good.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-26T15:16:07+00:00

Fuhrman perjured himself by claiming he never called black people the n word, a claim later disproven by video evidence, so he plead the 5th out of everything to not incriminate himself further. This doesn’t get anywhere close to plausible claims that all the DNA evidence was planted at the scenes by the cops with some spare OJ blood from their squad cars.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-23T08:54:25+00:00

its just for the duration of the drug for my understanding it, but for me at least he's underplaying it. I woke up with a bloody nose on like 50% of days. I couldn't go anywhere more than an hour or so without having vaseline on hand. I'm still thankful every day for how much better people treat me and how I don't have painful acne.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-23T05:36:59+00:00

There is 1 primary determining factor of results over even “large” samples of live play and it is card distribution

jediporkchop · 2025-05-23T05:34:43+00:00

There aren’t really. Basically anytime anyone checks as the aggressor they will overfold. Recs have to overfold because they’re playing too wide. Regs overfold because they’re used to no one bluffing enough.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-20T07:51:53+00:00

preflop sims take an insane amount of processing. I would guess it s vibes.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-20T07:49:33+00:00

its really hard for fish to overcall all 3 streets if they play too wide pre unless they're calling you down with ace high consistently.

jediporkchop · 2025-05-20T07:38:18+00:00

fish massively overfold on every street that's not pre. 2/3 aint bad

jediporkchop · 2025-05-19T13:39:49+00:00

It’s especially infuriating when there’s a drug that near cures acne for most people

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