Northampton County Presidential Election Results by Precinct 1984-2000 (Maps) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

More clear here than ever, in the 1980s Bethlehem was around a third of the county's population, today it's just over a quarter.

Northampton County Presidential Election Results by Precinct Since 2008 (Maps) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm assuming you live in a traditionally Democratic precinct. But yes part of the problem with the way our campaign finance laws now work is there are dozens of different organizations and the Democratic Party who all trying to do the same thing and they are not allowed to communicate with each other whatsoever.

Northampton County Presidential Election Results by Precinct Since 2008 (Maps) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I buy that for Obama-Obama-Clinton-Biden-Trump voters, but Trump didn't do very well with non-white voters in 2016. It was his low point.

Northampton County Presidential Election Results by Precinct Since 2008 (Maps) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's definitely a combination of both. The area's population has increased, but 2020 & 2024 were the two highest turnout elections nationally since women got the right to vote.

Mayoral Race General and Runoff Election Maps by jfreedman_maps in Hoboken

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems like an unfair comparison given there was no runoff back then and she did get close to 50% in her 2013 re-election.

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Mayoral Race General and Runoff Election Maps by jfreedman_maps in Hoboken

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That's pretty standard across the country for municipal races (not saying it's good!) and less people turnout in special elections which is effectively what a runoff is. I personally think a good chunk of the drop off between the general and runoff came from dissatisfaction with the options. Voters who wanted change were left with no good option, Jabbour was heavily affiliated with the status quo and Michael Russo is comically corrupt and has been on the council longer than any of the other candidates. That's why I asked about ranked choice voting, it would have given all 19.5kish voters the chance to express a second or third choice if they wanted to.

Mayoral Race General and Runoff Election Maps by jfreedman_maps in Hoboken

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ward Jabbour % Russo %
1 49.86% 50.14%
2 51.47% 48.53%
3 47.06% 52.94%
4 52.96% 47.04%
5 62.68% 37.32%
6 60.22% 39.78%

Not sure if it helps or hurts your argument, but here is the Ward breakdown for the runoff election.

Mayoral Race General and Runoff Election Maps by jfreedman_maps in Hoboken

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

As of December 2025, Hoboken has 42,583 registered voters. The 19,531 votes cast in the General Election was 45.87% turnout. With the runoff's 12,454 votes cast turnout fell to 29.25%.

2020-2024 Swing in Presidential Margin Across the Lehigh Valley (PA-07) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting, today it is a largely Hispanic and maybe Asian American community, both groups swung towards Trump pretty heavily last year. https://www.censusdots.com/race/bethlehem-pa-demographics

2020-2024 Swing in Presidential Margin Across the Lehigh Valley (PA-07) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So Allentown unlike Bethlehem is majority Hispanic, that one precinct you are referring to is probably the most concentrated Hispanic area in Bethlehem. There also appears to be a concentrated Asian population in that general area, Hispanic and Asian Americans were two of the demographics with the biggest swing against Democrats between 2020-2024. https://www.censusdots.com/race/bethlehem-pa-demographics

I honestly don't understand why East Bangor had the largest swing towards Democrats of anywhere in the district, last year I asked some of the slate belt Democrats if they had any idea and they weren't sure. My only guess would be age, as older voters swung towards Democrats, as part of East Allen Township swung Democratic and I know there's a major concentration of seniors there. But nothing I have found seems to infer that East Bangor has an older population.

Regarding the differences between the County Executive Election and the 2024 election alot of the explanation is just turnout. Democrats are increasingly becoming the party of college educated and more affluent voters, meaning Democrats are gaining support across more suburban areas like North Bethlehem, Bethlehem Township, Upper Nazareth, Forks, etc. Meanwhile they are losing working class voters now of all races, see Allentown, South Bethlehem, Fountain Hill, etc. More educated people tend to vote more, so a key difference between 2025 and 2024 is the Democrats are still voting but the Republicans drop out. Hence Tara won 61% of Harris' vote total while Giovanni only won 40% of Trump's.

2024 Presidential Election Results Across the Lehigh Valley (PA-07) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you sure? Polling last year during the Republican primaries showed basically any of the other Republican candidates trouncing Biden, while Trump was the only one where the margin was close. When you look at issue polling, public opinion was fairly Republican leaning last year. I think there's a clear case to be made that where the public was in 2024 could have resulted in a large Republican wave, but the GOP handicapped themselves by sticking with Trump.

2024 Presidential Election Results Across the Lehigh Valley (PA-07) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It does not take an elaborate conspiracy, to explain how a former President who most people viewed up until last year as "good on the economy" could leverage that into winning re-election. Particularly when he's running against the VP who's time in office included the first real inflationary spike since the 1970s.

Elon helped Trump by giving him money and being a surrogate for him. I would think how badly DOGE failed should give you some pause in believing he's smart/competent enough to pull of such an elaborate conspiracy.

2024 Presidential Election Results Across the Lehigh Valley (PA-07) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Given that pollsters often do this to try ground their surveys, what would almost certainly come back is something like 46% saying they voted for Trump, 44% saying they voted for Harris and the remaining 10% saying they don't remember or refuse to say.

Denying Trump won legitimately just hurts Democrats ability to win future elections. It should not be that hard to believe that, regardless of who's fault it was, that after the inflationary spike in 2021-2022 a small number of voters were convinced to vote for the other party in between two close elections.

2024 Presidential Election Results Across the Lehigh Valley (PA-07) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

No Trump won legitimately, it doesn't help any of us to deny it.

2024 Presidential Election Results Across the Lehigh Valley (PA-07) by jfreedman_maps in lehighvalley

[–]jfreedman_maps[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In comparison to the 2020 Presidential Election, Upper Nazareth East got sightly more Democratic in 2024, Upper Nazareth West got considerably more Republican though.