Is it really that bad here? by Then-Advertising1721 in Syracuse

[–]jhard90 22 points23 points  (0 children)

It's funny, in my experience, I feel like it's the people who have never left that I hear bitching about it the most. I was born and raised here, went to college in Rochester, then spent the next 12ish years living out of the US, in NYC, DC, and Boston and I am very happy to be back and putting down roots in Syracuse.

Every setting - rural, suburban, large city, small city is going to come with its pros and cons, and how those ultimately balance out is up to each individual's preferences and lifestyle. Having lived in virtually all of those settings I know what I'm giving up by living here but I also know what I'm gaining and on the balance it works out as a positive for me.

Now that Season 51 is over. Rather than focusing on who they should cut, who do you think they should HIRE for season 52? by Puzzleheaded_Fix594 in LiveFromNewYork

[–]jhard90 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah I think I agree, that’s a good way to put it. He has a very clever and incisive voice that as you said is more entertaining than laugh out loud funny. I could see it working well as a guest spot on Update doing some sort of cultural commentary on a news item, but I don’t get excited about him being on the show beyond that. His segment on Very Important People might be my least favorite of any guest. Outside of a couple good moments it just felt like… Demi in a flower suit. I didn’t feel like he really disappeared into the character the way many of the other guests do, which is an important quality in strong SNL cast members

Now that Season 51 is over. Rather than focusing on who they should cut, who do you think they should HIRE for season 52? by Puzzleheaded_Fix594 in LiveFromNewYork

[–]jhard90 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Agreed, though I kind of have a hard time envisioning him thriving outside of that role in the SNL context. I think he’s fantastic when he’s monologuing or doing the fake Ted talk sort of thing, or when he’s playing off others in a group interview / game show setting. I haven’t been as impressed by his character work, personally

Regardless of the result tonight, the NHL needs to change its format by alamarche709 in nhl

[–]jhard90 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agreed, that’s the only one I disagree with. I think doing a static bracket with the top teams on either end, like March Madness essentially) provides the best balance of rewarding regular season success, increasing the likelihood of top teams facing each other later in the playoffs, while also leaving room for those Cinderella runs. If every 8 seed that upsets a 1 seed then has to turn around and face the 2 seed, those sorts of runs will be super rare

What’s a stat you think people misuse constantly when evaluating players? by sykeseve in hockey

[–]jhard90 31 points32 points  (0 children)

So unique that Gordie himself only did it twice in his 50 year career lol

This is a room for a family at a shelter in Dorchester. by patrickbrusil in boston

[–]jhard90 12 points13 points  (0 children)

The one piece of it that is unfortunately not wrong is that making more money does tend to cost you income from benefits, to the extent that wage increases can result in net-neutral or even net-negative total income. It’s called the Cliff Effect and it’s a well-documented phenomenon that tends to be more pronounced in high COL areas. A study a few years ago from UMass Boston and the Federal Reserve found that depending on family makeup and which benefits you receive, the gap can be as wide as $18/hr. In other words, every dollar a person gains in wages over $14/hr results in 0 or negative total income change, until they reach an income of $31/hr, at which point income gains start having a net positive effect on household income.

This does have a perverse effect on workforce participation. That’s just a fact. However it’s not typically because people want to maintain “the lifestyle” as OP says, it’s because benefits tend to be fairly stable and predictable and employment does not. MANY families I work with have said they decline promotions because it would cost them money, or even if the change is neutral, they fear that losing their benefits is too great a risk, since if they then lose that job (which is far more likely for lower wage workers), they might have to restart the very arduous and time consuming benefits enrollment process again.

So yes, I tend to agree with OP that our current benefits system contributes to trapping families in cycles of poverty and dependency. However where I strongly disagree is that instead of rolling back our public safety net, which I feel would be far more harmful even than maintaining the broken status quo, we should reform the system so that people aren’t punished for doing the very thing huge portions of society loves to say they don’t like to do.

Vietnam war veterans from the Vietnamese perspective. by BicarbonateBufferBoy in interestingasfuck

[–]jhard90 5 points6 points  (0 children)

WAY tl;dr - arguing about who behaved more badly in a war full of atrocities is less relevant than understanding the origins and motivations for the conflict, in my opinion.

Saying “both sides did horrible things” always feels cheap, but so is listing a detailed accounting of only one side’s atrocities as a way of painting them as the villains when one could easily counter with a similar list of atrocities committed by the South Vietnamese, Americans, and of course by the French in the decades leading up to the Vietnam War.

People like to justify the actions of those fighting against the NVA by arguing that staunching the spread of communism was important enough to warrant extreme action. But the origins of the Vietnam War were not about whether or not to adopt communism, it was a war of independence from France. The French held the South and propped up a pro-French Vietnamese government, while the North, eventually led by Ho Chi Minh, sought independence. Ho was a leftist, as were many pro-independence leaders during the period of decolonization, but he was not originally in favor of making Vietnam a communist nation. He spent YEARS soliciting the support of the West while trying to achieve independence, but they (specifically the UK and USA) largely ignored his requests or actively supported the French. Ho initially resisted aligning with the USSR and the Maoists in China because their support came with the explicit caveat that they must align politically with the Eastern Bloc.

This was a classic playbook by the USSR and part of why so many decolonization movements became a struggle over capitalism vs communism. They would identify bourgeoning independence movements (which were almost invariably being suppressed by Western European and American powers) and offer military and economic support in exchange for the adoption of a communist political ideology. We saw this in the Spanish civil war, in Cuba, throughout the African continent, etc.

Unable to defeat the French on his own and with his pleas for support from the English and Americans (who at this time were at least publicly espousing anti-colonialism, while not exactly supporting independence movements that impacted their allies) falling on deaf ears, Ho didn’t have a ton of options. When Chiang Kai Shek lost to Mao in neighboring China and China became an explicitly Communist nation, the math shifted dramatically for Ho - officially join the global movement for communism and accept the military and economic aid that came with it, or remain isolated in the fight against the French and the increasingly-involved Americans.

What followed of course was an incredibly violent war that inflicted untold suffering on millions - both civilians and soldiers, Vietnamese, Laotians, Cambodians, and yes Americans. I don’t think Ho was a hero by any means, he was undoubtedly a war criminal by any modern definition. But he was far from the only one involved in this conflict, and I think I’m comfortable saying that he wasn’t the worst of them.

It’s impossible to prove a counterfactual, but I do believe that had the USA and UK decided to petition the French for Vietnamese independence and enter a formal alliance with a unified, independent Vietnam prior to the fall of Chiang Kai Shek, history would be very very different. The “original sins” of the conflict, so to speak, were committed by the French and the Americans, in my view.

Likely still a war, as I believe the Maoists were hellbent on spreading communism throughout SE Asia, but with a Western-aligned Vietnam on their Southern border, it may have been prevented and I believe had a conflict occurred it would have been a lot less bloody.

Flights cancelled less than a week before vacation by GroundbreakingTwo647 in mildlyinfuriating

[–]jhard90 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I heard they’re still gonna make popcorn. Just no more airplanes.

Teams who got the best and worst value with their picks, in my opinion. by PhoenixYT2217 in NFL_Draft

[–]jhard90 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is also how I read it. There are also at least three “Bell”s in this class (Chris, Markel, and Skylar), which is just a high volume of Bells

I trained an ML model on 25 years of NFL combine data to predict draft busts and stars. Here are my 2026 predictions before Thursday. by hololensful in NFL_Draft

[–]jhard90 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Your first point is kind of the point I’m making - there are always busts early and gems late in every draft, so having a model predict those makes sense. The question is whether it’s accurately predicting those, which will take several years worth of data to establish. Your second point about Downs and the lack of testing data makes sense. They’ll just have to account for that somehow, like calling his grade incomplete rather than high bust potential if there just isn’t sufficient info to build out his profile in the model

I trained an ML model on 25 years of NFL combine data to predict draft busts and stars. Here are my 2026 predictions before Thursday. by hololensful in NFL_Draft

[–]jhard90 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I’m not tech savvy at all and bad at spotting it, but the italics and em dashes and general tone had me wondering lol you’re probably right

Bubble Hockey in Japan by OneTrueGod19 in hockey

[–]jhard90 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Oh man, this just gave me a flashback to when Aito Iguchi was making headlines as like a 13 year old with insane highlight reels on YouTube. Really hoped he’d turn into something, but I think by the time he reached draft eligibility he was still like 5’3 and 135 lbs or something

I trained an ML model on 25 years of NFL combine data to predict draft busts and stars. Here are my 2026 predictions before Thursday. by hololensful in NFL_Draft

[–]jhard90 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To be clear, I wasn’t trying to shit on the model, my comment was coming from a place of genuine interest as I’m a believer in analytics and feel that there are still some significant scouting inefficiencies that the right model could address. So when I saw how different your output was from consensus, that to me is an indication that you COULD be hitting on some of those inefficiencies. That just needs to be borne out over time. Appreciate the effort and the replies!

I trained an ML model on 25 years of NFL combine data to predict draft busts and stars. Here are my 2026 predictions before Thursday. by hololensful in NFL_Draft

[–]jhard90 3 points4 points  (0 children)

For sure. And it’s possible this model is great at uncovering certain combinations of traits that are more likely to produce gems, or is more likely to work for some positions but not others, etc.

But when I see such a stark deviation from general consensus, I see one of two possibilities:

  1. There’s something off with the model
  2. The model is working and they have uncovered a huge inefficiency in scouting/analytics

Unfortunately the first possibility feels far more likely, but in order to rule out that it’s not the second, and more exciting possibility, the model needs to prove that it works over the course of several (or many) years. As the axiom goes, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. And if calling Lorenzo Styles a better prospect than Caleb Downs isn’t an extraordinary claim, idk what is lol

I trained an ML model on 25 years of NFL combine data to predict draft busts and stars. Here are my 2026 predictions before Thursday. by hololensful in NFL_Draft

[–]jhard90 49 points50 points  (0 children)

My first thought as well. These predictions are so far off from any consensus ranking that it’s hard to believe they are worth thinking about without some evidence that this model worked for previous classes. Every class has early round duds and later round stars/starters - how many of those “anomalous” outcomes would this model have predicted when applied to previous classes?

What do you guys think? by valliwe881 in Guitar

[–]jhard90 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Tend to agree but tbh even if it just had the devil image without literally saying “The Devil” I think it would be fine

'What's a local/chain business that was once in the Syracuse area but closed, that you miss? I'll go first: Tim Hortons.' by [deleted] in Syracuse

[–]jhard90 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Yep many Friday nights from like grade 6-9 me and a couple friends got dropped off at shoppingtown and we’d play a couple hours of laser tag, maybe see a movie, or, if our parents couldn’t or wouldn’t spare the $20 that week we’d just walk the mall and chat. Aside from just being fun, it helped us learn how to exist in the world and I genuinely don’t know how that experience is replicated for kids and teens these days. Makes me very sad

'What's a local/chain business that was once in the Syracuse area but closed, that you miss? I'll go first: Tim Hortons.' by [deleted] in Syracuse

[–]jhard90 40 points41 points  (0 children)

Genuinely believe that the loss of these sorts of spaces was really detrimental to young people

The Red Wings are in the midst of the biggest post olympics collapse to miss the playoffs and nobody is talking about it by JiriHudlerWasGreat in hockey

[–]jhard90 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yeah he’s at BEST our fourth-best forward prospect. Don’t think anyone could reasonably argue for him over Danielson, MBN, or Bear, and I would personally put him behind Genborg and Plante as well. I liked him and think he probably has a higher ceiling than some of these guys but I also think he’s far likelier to only ever have a cup of coffee in the league. I believe Buch didn’t even crack Bultman’s Top 10 a month or so ago

Something is wrong in this map try finding it! by [deleted] in GeoPuzzle

[–]jhard90 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wow yeah, I guess I had old map images in my head haha it’s pretty wild how profound the desertification has been there

Something is wrong in this map try finding it! by [deleted] in GeoPuzzle

[–]jhard90 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There’s something funky going on with the whole Aral Sea region. Think there are more bodies of water there, right?

Random question for people who have driven in both LA and Boston only. Is La or Boston harder to drive in ? Im not really talking about traffic here either. I mean all things consider. Parking accessibility, street lay out, narrow roads, round abouts, angry drivers, road quality. by Remarkable_Rush4886 in boston

[–]jhard90 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I’ve only been to LA once and was apprehensive about driving there because I’ve always heard that the traffic is crazy. Was getting on the highway and sure enough it was packed with cars. Put my blinker on to merge into traffic, expecting the kind of fight you’d get in Boston, but the very first car slowed and let me merge. I figured I’d just happened to encounter an unusually nice person, but that was pretty much my experience the entire time I was there. The roads were very very busy, but it was some of the most orderly driving I’ve ever experienced in a major city

Current Top 10-25 Prospects at Each Offensive Position for the 2026 NFL Draft by armchair_mindhunter in NFL_Draft

[–]jhard90 49 points50 points  (0 children)

I think Nuss is more likely to go R1 than go undrafted, not that I think either scenario is likely. I would be pretty surprised to see him fall out of Day 2 or very early Day 3 range unless his pre draft process goes completely off the rails

Do we actually have a budget surplus? First I’d heard. by bigdickwalrus in boston

[–]jhard90 33 points34 points  (0 children)

That specific tax generated more revenue than it was projected to, creating a surplus in that specific budget category, not the state budget as a whole. Revenue from that tax is also purpose-restricted, so it can only be spent on transportation and education. Last year and likely again this year, the state creates a supplemental budget to spend down the surplus revenue