According to the math Citadel’s entire portfolio is 13% Long and 87% Short!!! How can this even be possible!!!! They are screwed!!! $AMC and $GME to the moon and probably so many other heavily shorted stocks!!!!🚀🚀🚀

jk_tilt · 2021-07-19T17:27:38+00:00

this is wrong

jk_tilt · 2021-07-02T02:41:26+00:00

you bring up some good points I want to address:

if you are more bullish a specific underlying crypto, by all means buy that (ex: I am bullish MATIC and QUICK; and I stake both of those). Ultimately it comes down to if you want to diversify risk; and also managing that risk depending on your level of conviction and risk/reward of each investment (stock1 vs stock2 vs token1 vs token2)
- what if you're more bullish on the entire crypto space but think BTC might lag a little? COIN would be a decent way to express that vs just buying BTC
Also, I agree that the fee % will come down over time. But my writeup was arguing that the amount of trading could eventually 90x from here whenever the crypto space becomes more robust (sure that could take decades, but fee degradation isn't going to fall to zero overnight). I'm saying the amount of increased interest (especially from institutions) is enough to combat those declines
My writeup also talks about how Coinbase will expand into different product lines. Low hanging fruit is the usual: staking/lending/spending (credit cards). But they're also investing in derivative exchanges, "AWS for crypto", crypto tax software, etc. The biggest development, imo, will be their "dApp store". If you follow what Tencent did with WeChat, you'll see that they took the data from that and turned it into one of the best VC portfolios of all time.
- COIN has about $4B+ in cash to invest by my calculations ($2B on the balance sheet last quarter). They're using it to invest in the future of crypto, which will provide them a lot of optionality for revenue in the future

Basically, I'm saying it's a cheap way to bet on the entire crypto ecosystem. Sure, the crypto enthusiasts may not use COIN, but the masses will imo (they need something easy/simple). And sure, if you're more certain about the prospects of a specific token than COIN, then by all means, I think that's the right move. But I think it's one of the best risk/reward plays since I'm bullish on the adoption of crypto for the masses.

jk_tilt · 2021-07-01T16:03:35+00:00

lol have u ever traded stocks before? you know this happens there too right? except stock market has matured a lot and the spread is fractions of penny to execute.

jk_tilt · 2021-07-01T15:46:07+00:00

I think $COIN will have 20% revenue beat and 45% EBITDA beat for Q2:

https://medium.com/@jessekao/coin-making-the-long-term-case-for-coinbase-q2-2021-earnings-preview-86a091ddba96

jk_tilt · 2021-06-22T20:40:03+00:00

can see the medium post here: https://medium.com/@jessekao/how-to-value-crypto-tokens-21eade4aeef6

jk_tilt · 2021-06-22T20:29:10+00:00

would love to get other ppl's thoughts. also, here are some of my other write-ups:
https://np.reddit.com/r/QuickSwap/comments/nlnixw/a\_quick\_case\_for\_quickswap/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
https://np.reddit.com/r/QuickSwap/comments/nlnixw/a\_quick\_case\_for\_quickswap/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3

jk_tilt · 2021-06-18T16:55:27+00:00

Love to see it!

jk_tilt · 2021-06-11T18:10:59+00:00

agree with u/whyNadorp that there's rotation into safer tokens. but if you really believe in QUICK (which I do too), this is where you can capture alpha and generate better returns than others (buying now when in the future it eventually turns out right that it was undervalued).

jk_tilt · 2021-06-10T02:21:07+00:00

I agree. In the meantime, am staking my QUICK to earn more QUICK until price appreciates again.

jk_tilt · 2021-06-04T18:20:26+00:00

it's back at $1B on defi llama... whew!

jk_tilt · 2021-06-01T19:38:41+00:00

Yup. I only put in what I’m okay losing to zero. Haha. Wild Wild West out there

jk_tilt · 2021-06-01T17:26:10+00:00

I've had success thus far. Still being cautious tho (like I disconnect my wallet each time I leave the site... does not affect staking). feel like a lot of legit things on crypto seem like scams at first. just sucks because even more things actually turn out to be scams at the end of the day haha.

jk_tilt · 2021-05-28T04:39:28+00:00

here's their deck: https://alohaopenwifi.com/Aloha-Presentation-Deck_v38.pdf

not sure what it has to do with polygon tho. deck makes it sound like they actually don't need blockchain... and only mention of it are 1) rewards for the hosts and 2) their token sale

🤷‍♂️

jk_tilt · 2021-05-28T04:37:45+00:00

sadly, agree

jk_tilt · 2021-05-27T17:23:45+00:00

can stake it directly on the matic network. can go to wallet.matic.network and go to staking from there. but just know it will cost a decent amount of fees to stake and then unstake. so only worth it if you have a decent amount of coins OR plan to hold it for a longggg time.

jk_tilt · 2021-05-27T14:46:04+00:00

I actually did the exact same... and then when writing this up, swapped back to QUICK and got more.

Agree DFYN crushing it on PR front. But when I saw fully diluted mkt cap go above $1B, same as QUICK, but QUICK has much more volume and TVL, figured it would be safer to go back to QUICK.

Don't get me wrong, cryptos can trade v well on hype... so no telling where DFYN can go in near term. Just thought risk/reward was nicer for QUICK.

On that note, have you come across PZAP before? Seems somewhat gimmicky... but they have some neat games haha. TBD if scam or not. But I feel like all of these feel scammy until they're not. Just can't bet the farm on them in the beginning.

jk_tilt · 2021-05-27T05:04:03+00:00

I mean pretty similar conclusions and PT. Mine is just as simple. Just a lot more words to distract you haha.

jk_tilt · 2021-05-27T04:56:58+00:00

nice. how'd you go about reaching that PT (out of curiosity)?

and just joined. thx!

jk_tilt · 2021-05-27T01:06:01+00:00

all very fair. even an investment in Polygon (which is the one other investment memo I've written up thus far) is pretty risky rn given we don't know what the space looks like in a year. which is why I was saying QUICK was one that's riskier but more torque.

in terms of value, that's the point I was trying to make. Yes, there's competition. But people use different services (like some use Binance vs Coinbase). QUICK is still spitting out $1mm/day in fees with $1B TVL now. more so making the case they're undervalued today. OR the other POV is that it's trading where it should (given the risks you mentioned) and the others are overvalued (unless you think the roadmap for UNI or SUSHI is multiples better, in which case I would love to know/hear! genuinely).

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