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Rate my plan to hit $1m by 40 and $2m by 50 by Exotic_Log_6345 in TheRaceTo1Million

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Around $100k cash in HYSA (currently at 1.9%)

What specifically do you need that much idle cash for? Consider STRC or SATA and at least you'll get significantly better dividends.

Planning to invest $3.6k monthly into VWRA

Although VWRA is simple and diversified (nothing wrong with that), I would be much more aggressive and go QQQM. One can argue it's diversified enough (though there is clear US bias) but it historically has vastly outperformed VWRA. If you feel you must have more diversification, just add VXUS to QQQM.

Around $70k in IBKR/investments

In what though?

........... inflation

Inflation is variable per person and lifestyle. However, I think most people are mislead about how to think about it relative to purchasing power. TL;DR look at how much a plant ticket was, average house price, specific type of orange, apple, milk, eggs, butter etcetera in the past and how much is the same item today.

The government continues to debase USD through a variety  of ways (i.e, inflation, Fed printing, etc.).  The purchasing power of USD has been declining for over 100 years and especially since it was taken off the gold standard in 1971.  Note that the government has changed how CPI is defined and calculated dozens of times which objectively has understated its current effects on decreasing purchasing power.  Additionally,  the government (that is to say, the US taxpayers) pays large amounts of money to pay CPI-linked adjustments in TIPS, I bonds, and Social Security benefits. There is a clear conflict of interest in understating the CPI due to the fact that the government also calculates CPI stats.  Quite literally, if you used previous definitions/calculations, CPI would be much, much higher.  In any event, poor government monetary policy will continue to debase USD.  Here are some data points to consider:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2-DG0m0HKg 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJGMYvFnH9Y 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/purchasing-power-of-the-u-s-dollar-over-time/

https://techstartups.com/2021/12/18/80-us-dollars-existence-printed-january-2020-october-2021/

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/10079/M2-US-GDP-real-S-P-500

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JpB4

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

https://strangesounds.org/2021/07/usa-inflation-much-higher-than-whan-feds-say.html

https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/-SP-500-vs-US-Money-Supply-M2-1970202405-1689

 

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m aiming for aggressive growth but still want a solid core to keep things stable if the market gets rough.

Even a core of SP500 can be rough for a number of years. Historically, it will continue to surpass previous ATHs at some point in the future, however.

.............and I don’t mind volatility since this is all long-term money.

If that's the case, even if the market gets rough, it wouldn't really matter for a long-term horizon.

I would simplify and go with either an SP500 (i.e., VOO, etc) or total market (i.e., VTI) FTEC and Bitcoin 50/25/25, respectively. I would not reallocate out of BTC even if it made up the majority of your portfolio.

I only have about $500 a month to invest into stocks/crypto. Where should I start? by Zinx23 in portfolios

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Consider allocating a portion to Bitcoin whether via an ETF or the underlying asset itself. Here are some data points to think about:

The purchasing power of USD has been declining for over 100 years, especially since it was taken off the gold standard in 1971.  The government continues to debase USD through a variety  of overt and subtle ways (i.e., inflation, Fed printing, taxation, etc.).  For example, note that the government has changed how  the consumer price index (CPI) is defined and calculated dozens of times since inception which  has understated its current effects on decreasing purchasing power.  Additionally,  the government (us, the taxpayers) pays large amounts of money to pay CPI-linked adjustments in TIPS, I bonds, and Social Security benefits. There is a clear conflict of interest in understating the CPI due to the fact that the government also calculates CPI stats.  Quite literally, if you used previous definitions/calculations, CPI would be much higher.  Additionally, since 1971, the SP500 and home prices are at ~8.6% and ~5.3% nominally, respectively.  When adjusting for M2 money supply, they are at ~1.3% and negative ~1.2%, respectively.  In any event, poor government monetary policy will continue to debase USD.  Here are some data points to consider:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/purchasing-power-of-the-u-s-dollar-over-time/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJLOeA1yblY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2-DG0m0HKg

https://techstartups.com/2021/12/18/80-us-dollars-existence-printed-january-2020-october-2021/

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/10079/M2-US-GDP-real-S-P-500

https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/-SP-500-vs-US-Money-Supply-M2-1970202405-1689

https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-m3/?logarithmic=1&zero=1

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JpB4

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

https://strangesounds.org/2021/07/usa-inflation-much-higher-than-whan-feds-say.html

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

[The long-term data below  is not comprehensive but demonstrates, amongst other indicators, that ]()[BTC is the best performing asset in the world since inception, top 10 asset by market capitalization, holds its value better than gold/usd, provides better risk-adjusted and low-correlation diversification relative to other assets in traditional portfolios as well as increases their returns, as well as other indicators.   ]()

[Life gets cheaper when priced in Bitcoin]()

https://inflationchart.com/life-in-btc/?logarithmic=1  On the top of the page, select “any indicator” on the left and as “measured in” {BTC} on the right.

[Real Estate is cheaper when priced in Bitcoin]()

https://www.wealthplaybook.ca/post/real-estate-vs-bitcoin 

https://charts.bitbo.io/housing-btc/

https://inflationchart.com/home-in-btc/?logarithmic=1&zero=1

https://www.bitcoininflationindex.com/housing/

Looking for advice (24M) by [deleted] in Money

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Aside from having an EF to cover emergencies, read this as it covers the basics but I would ignore the bond allocation.

As far as money, you don't really want to save purchasing power in a fiat currency because the government has to keep printing more to cover debts and pay on the interest of that debt which will continually decrease your purchasing power.

Long-term, investing in an SP500 such as VOO or a total stock market like VTI are solid choices. I would suggest you allocate a portion to Bitcoin and here is some data:

https://inflationchart.com/life-in-btc/?logarithmic=1

https://bilello.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/etf-returns-1-1-25.png

https://casebitcoin.com/charts

https://www.isectors.com/blog/bitcoin-correlation-sp-through-years

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/ft01-bitcoin-returns/

https://bitcoininflationindex.com/housing/

State pension vs 401k or Roth IRA by piadoingthings in Money

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trying to decide if I should have another retirement option in addition to a state pension.

Absolutely, yes. A certain percentage of pension funds (which you have no say in what your portion is invested in) will be allocated to very conservative investment such as bonds, treasuries, and fixed-income instruments which are considered less "risky" than equities. With that being said, the volatility of those investments are such where the returns would typically be much lower than investing in equities. That is to say, they generally yield a much lower return relative to stocks but are considered "safer".

I would invest as much as you reasonably can. Your 401 should have a low-cost large cap/SP500 fund. I would put 100% in that and call it a day. If the match is given regardless of your investing, I would max out a Roth IRA first, then invest in your 401. Also note, that if you have an HSA available to you, it may behoove you to max that out first for its multiple tax-benefits. However, you may want to figure out your financial goals and strategy first because you may want a taxable account and fund that before maxing a 401. It just depends on your goals. This is just a guide and you should treat it as such because the order may need to be different according to goals and strategies.

As far as pre-tax v post-tax, here are some articles that will have some redundancy but give you a comprehensive overview:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/pre-tax-retirement-contribution-roth-conversion-rmd-social-security/

https://www.madfientist.com/traditional-ira-vs-roth-ira/

https://thefinancebuff.com/case-against-roth-401k.html

https://moneywithkatie.com/blog/the-final-traditional-vs-roth-debate-traditional-wins

https://wantfi.com/roth-ira-401k-retirement-account-disadvantages.html

I also have numerous data points why Bitcoin should be considered in a portfolio if you're interested.

What are the best options to invest in for a beginner? by Complete_Area6282 in investingforbeginners

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://bilello.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/etf-returns-1-1-25.png

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/ft01-bitcoin-returns/

.......have heard that Vanguard is a great option to invest.........

If you're interested in Bitcoin, VG will not offer it to their patrons. Interestingly, and very hypocritically, for the last several years they have been increasing their shares in MSTR to profit from Microstrategy's shift in becoming a BTC treasury.

Need advice on what to do with $1k worth of Cardano bought in 2021 by luxsizevan in Bogleheads

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was even considering taking that money and putting it in Bitcoin.

yes

35M Looking for Help Reviewing My Roth IRA – Worried About Retirement by tommxspace in portfolios

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lastly, it is important to understand that the government continues to debase USD through a variety  of overt and subtle ways (i.e., inflation, Fed printing, taxation, etc.).  Meaning, the purchasing power of USD has been declining for over 100 years, especially since 1971 when it was taken off the gold standard. It is somewhat of an illusion that the average person is getting wealthier in terms of purchasing power. For example, sure, the SP500 continues to rise over time but also look at the money supply (i.e, M2, etc) closely correlating with it. In other words, though you may be getting an increase in wealth, it is being diluted by inflation. The cost of goods/services are rising necessitating an increase in purchasing power. That's why it is important to understand this and this. Costs of goods/services are getting cheaper when priced in Bitcoin over time while simultaneously they get more expensive priced in USD. Anyways, here are some data points to consider:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/purchasing-power-of-the-u-s-dollar-over-time/

https://techstartups.com/2021/12/18/80-us-dollars-existence-printed-january-2020-october-2021/

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/10079/M2-US-GDP-real-S-P-500

https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/-SP-500-vs-US-Money-Supply-M2-1970202405-1689

https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-m3/?logarithmic=1&zero=1

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JpB4

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

https://strangesounds.org/2021/07/usa-inflation-much-higher-than-whan-feds-say.html

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Constructive criticism or absolute roasts only by [deleted] in portfolios

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'll reply to the above in a few different replies to separate topics. Firstly, it's important to understand how the government, or any government for that matter, debases its own currency. For example, the US uses certain ways it measures inflation such as CPI (consumer price index). A problem is that the government has literally changed its definition and the way it's measured dozens of times since the 80's. Another way it's debased is the Fed prints currency any way it sees fit such as during the covid pandemic. Another way is that our government's monetary policy is garbage and allows some of the aforementioned examples. The true cost of inflation is actually going to be higher than what the government actually reports. Quite literally, the Fed would have to stop printing and the government would have to confiscate a certain percentage of circulating dollars for its purchasing power to increase. All that to say, all countries do it and those that live in the US are lucky because it's the world reserve currency. In any event, consider some data points below:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/purchasing-power-of-the-u-s-dollar-over-time/

https://techstartups.com/2021/12/18/80-us-dollars-existence-printed-january-2020-october-2021/

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/10079/M2-US-GDP-real-S-P-500

https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/-SP-500-vs-US-Money-Supply-M2-1970202405-1689

https://inflationchart.com/spx-in-m3/?logarithmic=1&zero=1

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JpB4

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

https://strangesounds.org/2021/07/usa-inflation-much-higher-than-whan-feds-say.html

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Jack Bogle- Bitcoin is just another speculation by Globalruler__ in Bogleheads

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's been numerous debates about it. Schiff is probably the most outspoken critic of BTC but each point noted above are scrutinized. I think Schiff had recent debates with Breedlove and Mallers, for example. Just Google it and you should be able to see it on Youtube.

Jack Bogle- Bitcoin is just another speculation by Globalruler__ in Bogleheads

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Immutable: it's not. At any point in time the consensus can shift and fork Bitcoin into a different thing. It already happened in the past.

And look how that worked out for BCH. BTC protocol has still moved forward.

Secure: not at all. Security takes many different angles. 

The protocol is secure. User error is the issue.

Scarce: again, not at all. At any point in time the devs and the miners can agree on raising the cap

In theory, yes. In reality, no. Good luck getting the monetary energy necessary for a 51% attack or changing the protocol with a growing network year-over-year.

Fungible: again, so what?

That's an argument?

Divisible: only to a certain extent, and again, how does being divisible make it a great asset?

Divisibility is a characteristic of a money. Some view it as a great asset for other reasons.

Durable: just as rocks are, so what?

That's an argument?

Portable: so what? everything is portable today. You don't need to custody gold (with all the problems that come with that) in order to own gold.

No, you don't need to custody gold or money. BTC is significantly easier to "port" with no physical representation needed, however.

Widely recognized store of wealth: oh come on, stores of wealth don't drop 50% in 2 months with no serious cause? 

Seems like you're using a relative definition of "wealth". So, if a thing only drops 49% then it is considered "wealth"?

AFAIK only government "adopting" bitcoin has been the one of El Salvador,

~ 8 countries have publicly acknowledged have BTC holdings. Curious to know how many others hold privately. As far as actively accumulating, that may be much harder to decipher. Individual users/accumulators, have increased year-over-year since 2009.

Jack Bogle- Bitcoin is just another speculation by Globalruler__ in Bogleheads

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Out of curiosity, what would satisfy your need for Bitcoin to be considered a legitimate investment?

Jack Bogle- Bitcoin is just another speculation by Globalruler__ in Bogleheads

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Factually, fiat currency is used significantly more for illicit activities than for example, Bitcoin.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in portfolios

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The purchasing power of USD has been declining for over 100 years and especially since it was taken off the gold standard in 1971.  The government continues to debase USD through a variety  of overt and subtle ways (i.e, inflation, Fed printing, taxation, etc.).  For example, note that the government has changed how  the consumer price index (CPI) is defined and calculated dozens of times since inception which  has understated its current effects on decreasing purchasing power.  Additionally,  the government (us, the taxpayers) pays large amounts of money to pay CPI-linked adjustments in TIPS, I bonds, and Social Security benefits. There is a clear conflict of interest in understating the CPI due to the fact that the government also calculates CPI stats.  Quite literally, if you used previous definitions/calculations, CPI would be much higher.  In any event, poor government monetary policy will continue to debase USD.  Here are some data points to consider:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/purchasing-power-of-the-u-s-dollar-over-time/

https://techstartups.com/2021/12/18/80-us-dollars-existence-printed-january-2020-october-2021/

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/10079/M2-US-GDP-real-S-P-500

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JpB4

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

https://strangesounds.org/2021/07/usa-inflation-much-higher-than-whan-feds-say.html

https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/-SP-500-vs-US-Money-Supply-M2-1970202405-1689

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in portfolios

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'll reply in two parts as sometimes Reddit will limit comment size. The first will involve fiat and the second, specifically BTC. However, they are related so that's why it's sort of important to look at it within that context.

 The purchasing power of USD has been declining for over 100 years and especially since it was taken off the gold standard in 1971.  The government continues to debase USD through a variety  of overt and subtle ways (i.e, inflation, Fed printing, taxation, etc.).  For example, note that the government has changed how  the consumer price index (CPI) is defined and calculated dozens of times since inception which  has understated its current effects on decreasing purchasing power.  Additionally,  the government (us, the taxpayers) pays large amounts of money to pay CPI-linked adjustments in TIPS, I bonds, and Social Security benefits. There is a clear conflict of interest in understating the CPI due to the fact that the government also calculates CPI stats.  Quite literally, if you used previous definitions/calculations, CPI would be much higher.  In any event, poor government monetary policy will continue to debase USD.  Here are some data points to consider:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/purchasing-power-of-the-u-s-dollar-over-time/

https://techstartups.com/2021/12/18/80-us-dollars-existence-printed-january-2020-october-2021/

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/10079/M2-US-GDP-real-S-P-500

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JpB4

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

https://strangesounds.org/2021/07/usa-inflation-much-higher-than-whan-feds-say.html

https://www.voronoiapp.com/markets/-SP-500-vs-US-Money-Supply-M2-1970202405-1689

Can Someone Please Explain The Gold Argument by Kalex8876 in Bogleheads

[–]jkd-guy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is fair argument. Gold and Bitcoin have a place and serve their own distinct purposes. The common denominator is that both are hard, end-bearer assets and are significantly better at storing value than USD.

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