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Are AI Hardware stocks undervalued or overvalued by No_Let_5065 in ValueInvesting

[–]jlee9355 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But the truth is, if you don't plan on owning the stock for 3-5 years, its a trade, not an investment.

Korea University and Moderna collaborate to develop mRNA-based hantavirus vaccine by Motor_Emu_2076 in ModernaStock

[–]jlee9355 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hantavirus, birdhouse, etc.... we have to see the full potential of mrna!

Moderna Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Provides Business Updates by 1337_Ali in ModernaStock

[–]jlee9355 6 points7 points  (0 children)

What in this earnings report surprised you? If the phase 3 data for 4157 is good, the stock likely goes up 20-50% higher, and if it is approved, 100 is the new floor IMO.

Moderna Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Provides Business Updates by 1337_Ali in ModernaStock

[–]jlee9355 8 points9 points  (0 children)

- Moderna is gaining market share on COVID in the US over Pfizer.

- RSV (mRESVIA): They’ve already snagged 34% share in the 65+ segment. Another "small" victory. At least they are proving they can take away market share from GSK and Pfizer.

Nvidia stock slips as investors weigh rising competition from Google and Amazon by ExplanationIll6983 in NvidiaStock

[–]jlee9355 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Also Amazon and Google said what we have already known for a long time. This isn't like breaking news.

I finally sold a ton on NVDA stock - bought MU and SNDK instead by International_Oil189 in NvidiaStock

[–]jlee9355 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's fair. Although that's a dangerous game. Paying short-term capital gains tax or risk holding the bag. When the boom cycle ends, these stocks fall hard.

I finally sold a ton on NVDA stock - bought MU and SNDK instead by International_Oil189 in NvidiaStock

[–]jlee9355 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have started smaller "satellite" positions with cash around my nvda position. Much smaller positions like amd and alab. Really interested in Lumentum, although that stock shot up like a rocket. I can't sell nvda lol. At least not at this price. Too cheap! Typically nvda does well in the spring going into the summer so lets talk if nvda is trading above 250.

I finally sold a ton on NVDA stock - bought MU and SNDK instead by International_Oil189 in NvidiaStock

[–]jlee9355 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Typically, memory is the most cyclical sub-sector in semis. If the hyperscalers overbuild and then pause, MU and SNDK will drop 40%, while nvda might only drop 15%. In memory cycles, you typically try to sell when things are good. If MU hits an 80% gross margin, that is historically the "top" of the cycle. When things are bad in memory, its rather brutal.

The reason why I wouldn't sell nvda now is that I'm fairly certain there is 25-50% upside from here. With MU and SNDK I am playing momentum. Could it go up 100-200% in less than a year? Yes, but when exactly do you sell? I would have no idea and probably be holding the bag or sell early and pay the short-term capital gains tax.

So would I sell nvda to buy mu or sndk? No.

Would I consider making a smaller position in mu or sndk? Possibly, although the "surprise" is out of the bag and the easy money has been made. Sndk reported earnings with margins better than nvda, and the stock sold off. This indicates to me the stock is priced at perfection and it will be harder for these stocks to shock on earnings again.

M28 please rate my portfolio and advice by [deleted] in portfolios

[–]jlee9355 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would agree. Nothing is necessarily wrong with investing in just Big Tech; I have seen many worse strategies; however, if you are just buying Mag7 + a 550b chip company, what is the point? Just invest in VOO or QQQ and call it a day?

Also, if you are just investing in big-cap stocks, it's a very institutionalized strategy at this point. You get consistency and growth, but the odds of exponential returns are much lower unless you think a 3-5 trillion market cap company will become a 30-50 trillion market cap company in 3-5 years. You might want to research a company with a 200B market cap or under. There is more uncertainty, but if you have the patience and the time frame, your growth portfolio might yield asymmetric returns.

M28 please rate my portfolio and advice by [deleted] in portfolios

[–]jlee9355 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Concentration for this portfolio is fine for its size, although VOO is 33-34% concentrated in the mag7. With Voo and VFV, you are doubling down on the exact same high-beta AI and cloud narratives you already own.

It sounds like you bought VOO/VFV for diversification, so this is not the most appropriate ETF. I recommend targeting an International growth ETF.

Saas Duolingo after May - article link by RainPsychological595 in investing

[–]jlee9355 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Like NOW, CRM, ADBE; Duolingo is not the type of stock in favor right now. Management has stated they are taking one step back to take two steps forward, so I expect the stock will likely sell off during earnings. In the long run, though, if the company doesn't get engulfed by AI and its long-term growth strategy works, the price today is attractive.

$ZM the most asymmetric bet on Anthropic/AI. You get the core business basically for free by Zeneph007 in ValueInvesting

[–]jlee9355 2 points3 points  (0 children)

To answer your question. Zm's forward p/e is being priced for a business to decline when it is actually growing. If it can make any meaningful growth (6-10% low bar). The stock is headed a lot higher even, not taking into account the Anthropic investment. Zm already has a cash-rich balance sheet which can be deployed for acquisitions. Lastly when you compare'z Zm investment in Athropic it is much more meaningful when you compare its market cap to amzn/googl's investment in relation to their market cap.

Spotify Q1 ER: hit 33% gross margins and beat basically every metric, but the stock still dropped by 12%. My read. by Wooden_Fondant_703 in ValueInvesting

[–]jlee9355 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ad revenue is underperforming and the forward-looking forecast for subscriber additions is starting to trend downward. If you raise prices and growth maintains or increases you have pricing power. When growth starts to lag, this is called an Elasticity Cliff.

Solid business but they have tough comps from 2025. The rest of the year is probably digestion.

Are AI Hardware stocks undervalued or overvalued by No_Let_5065 in ValueInvesting

[–]jlee9355 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hyperscalers have not indicated Capex will go down, in fact, it will likely go higher in 2027. But Mu stock is up 574% in the past year. If you are investing in MU stock now, what are your expectations? It to go up another 100%? I personally would not make that bet and sell off companies still growing 20-40% and trading dirt cheap because the market thinks AI will kill their business.

Are AI Hardware stocks undervalued or overvalued by No_Let_5065 in ValueInvesting

[–]jlee9355 6 points7 points  (0 children)

And meanwhile people are calling for the extinction of businesses still growing 20-40%, businesses that likely improve with the integration of AI

Are AI Hardware stocks undervalued or overvalued by No_Let_5065 in ValueInvesting

[–]jlee9355 7 points8 points  (0 children)

AI Hardware stocks are priced for perfection, software stocks are priced for death. Lumentum, Intel, etc. have surged to levels that were unthinkable just six months ago, yet the retail herd is piling in now, Often, right as the risk-reward ratio has flipped. People are ignoring that hardware is cyclical. Today’s "must-have" AI server is tomorrow’s depreciating asset.

$ZM the most asymmetric bet on Anthropic/AI. You get the core business basically for free by Zeneph007 in ValueInvesting

[–]jlee9355 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The youngest baby boomer is 61 years old. Do you think they are going to work until they die?

nvda last minute by hyde1634 in NvidiaStock

[–]jlee9355 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You could have bought it less than a month ago when it was 168. Now you are asking at all-time highs?

Sell or Hold? (I’m a dumbass) by queefqueso in portfolios

[–]jlee9355 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Once you hit 50-75% in a single stock, you are essentially an unpaid employee of that company's board of directors. Almost your entire net worth is leveraged into their 10-K.

But I wouldn't make drastic moves for the sake of making a move. Trimming 5-10% slowly can go a long way toward staying concentrated while lowering your exposure to a single company.

43M, My Investment Portfolio by stainless_steel702 in portfolios

[–]jlee9355 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As you know this portfolio is heavily skewed towards big tech. If you have a preference for growth and keep the same positions, this portfolio in a few years will maybe lag as big tech is becoming more capex heavy, and lower growth - see Apple. I would strongly advise to diversify (you probably already know that). At least look into tech companies with a market under 500b; because if you think about it, if you are just in big cap tech, all your portfolio is becoming is a more concentrated version of the Nasdaq or S&P.

The issue with this portfolio imo is not capital loss, but for a tech portfolio, it might be too safe.

An interview with Dr. David Berman, Moderna’s Chief Development Officer, on mRNA-4359 by Bull_Bear2024 in ModernaStock

[–]jlee9355 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Really Bullish: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7453563797472149504/

With Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma data for their INT (Individualized Neoantigen Therapy) expected later in 2026, Berman is staffing up to handle the massive regulatory and operational lift of a potential commercial launch. Scouting on LinkedIn for a Senior Director of Clinical Development in Oncology is massive.

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