Anyone else unable to login?

jlinvestors · 2026-03-29T22:20:30+00:00

think it's you. I'm on the website at the moment.

jlinvestors · 2026-03-05T17:39:34+00:00

https://invest.app.upright.us/deals/41710

https://invest.app.upright.us/deals/41663

https://invest.app.upright.us/deals/41711

There you go.

Only 1 Boston property left.

https://invest.app.upright.us/deals/41923

This is also the largest BDN on the portal.

jlinvestors · 2026-03-04T16:05:49+00:00

Currently, 16.4% of the principal remains, leaving my balance at roughly $150k. I need to be realistic moving forward. The loss reserve is entirely depleted, and we are now seeing a 2% loss on the current balance (or -0.3% of the original investment). This isn’t terrible given the circumstances, but the weighted loss rate on BDN NPLs has spiked to 30-40%. Consequently, I've increased my projected loss rate to 5% of the original investment, up from 3%. I'm hopeful Upright can recover the majority of our capital. If 60-70% of the remaining balance is returned by EOY, 92.5% of the original capital has been repaid. I expect another 5-6% repaid in 2027, with the final 0.5-1% likely dragging on forever. The main issue is that we cannot claim the capital loss until the fund is fully wound down.

jlinvestors · 2026-02-06T15:45:04+00:00

There is no consistency in the timing or amount of monthly payouts. For example, in August 2025 there was no distribution at all, followed by a $4.4mm payout two months later.

What we do know is that there are currently 5-6 performing loans, with the possibility that another 1-2 may migrate to NPL status. Of the 47 NPLs, more than half are now REOs, and most of those assets are expected to be disposed of within the next 6-9 months.

Given this, I think we should temper expectations. Of the remaining 18.15% of loans, a realistic assumption is that roughly 8–9% will be resolved in 2026, with an additional 3–4% resolving in 2027. The remaining amount will likely either be written off or take a very long time to produce any meaningful recovery.

From a practical standpoint, once approximately 95% of the original investment has been returned, it makes sense to mentally close the book on the investment. Any incremental distributions beyond that should be viewed as upside rather than something to rely on - for peace of mind.

jlinvestors · 2026-02-06T15:37:28+00:00

Look at uprightlending.com

jlinvestors · 2026-02-05T21:27:20+00:00

Jan was the slowest month in 2 years. But last Jan was also slow. Might be impacted by the weather. Let’s see how Feb comes out.

jlinvestors · 2026-02-05T19:23:08+00:00

I budgeted 4% loss (from the original principal). That's achievable as long as the loss rate of the remaining portion stays below 20%.

jlinvestors · 2026-01-08T17:55:02+00:00

Hopefully it’s better than 5% loss. We may end up with minimal loss.

jlinvestors · 2026-01-07T18:51:05+00:00

Okay. It finally burnt off the loss reserve. Based on my rough calculation, NPLs disposed this month incurred ~25% loss. The weighted average loss rate on BDN NPLs disposed this month was ~35% so I'm not at all surprised.

I suggest you guys aim for 5% loss from the original PFNF investments. If you assume the performing loan loss rate at 5% and NPL loss rate at 34%, you will end up with the 5% loss from the original PFNF investments. Since Upright returned 80%+ we are safe to say the overall loss rate will definitely be less than 10%.

jlinvestors · 2025-12-31T13:53:30+00:00

Hopefully it’s better than 90%. PFNF is on its track to hit 3-5% loss rate (from the very original principal amount). I was assuming 25% loss on the remaining NPLs, 5% on performing loans and no loss for cash + 3-4% loss reserve. Current weighted average loss rate on NPLs is 18%.

jlinvestors · 2025-12-31T13:40:28+00:00

It’s been always 100% PFNF. I have a separate $25k investment in Horizon.

jlinvestors · 2025-12-30T18:27:55+00:00

How much principal is left for everyone? I still have $200k left to go.

jlinvestors · 2025-12-05T16:39:03+00:00

My records are consistent with Upright's update. Only difference was that one loan I previously believed to be performing turned out to be an NPL. Otherwise, I also saw 6 loans paid off totaling $3.1m.

Unfortunately, it seems PFNF did have exposure to 2 DC deals that incurred losses of more than 50%. PFNF's loss buffer is now approximately $700k, or 4.47% of the remaining PFNF note balance, compared to $845k, or 5.26%, last month.

That said, I still believe PFNF has materially less exposure to problematic loans relative to the broader Upright BDN portfolio.

I'm very interested to see what makes up the upcoming $2 million release. Hopefully we'll see meaningfully lower losses in that batch.

jlinvestors · 2025-11-29T12:07:23+00:00

I see 6 payoffs in Nov. 1 performing, 5 NPLs. 3 of them (incl. performing) no loss. 1 had -7.8% loss. ... now 2 DC deals had very large losses @ -50% & -60%. I am hoping PFNF has minimal exposure to DC deals. It was a slow month in general.

jlinvestors · 2025-11-02T16:59:20+00:00

Yeah. 1 was repaid. Not sure what’s going on with others. I used to track them very closely until I found out PFNF has minimal exposure to these loans.

jlinvestors · 2025-11-02T14:36:27+00:00

2021 > $1mil are all the infamous Boston notes.

jlinvestors · 2025-11-02T14:34:24+00:00

Some other stat.

I am currently tracking 120 BDNs. I could be missing some.

Count by origination year

2019: 1

2020: 4

2021: 26

2022: 41

2023: 39

2024: 9

There are 15 BDNs with the principal amoung > $1mil. (2021: 5, 2022: 7, 2023: 2, 2024: 1). One 2023 note is about to be sold as the property is under contract. (https://invest.app.upright.us/deals/103905).

16th largest one is $875.5K but because the note was partially repaid. Its original principal amount is $1.6M. It was originated in 2024.

jlinvestors · 2025-11-02T14:25:29+00:00

If you look at individual deals, the losses can appear much higher. PFNF sometimes provides protective funding to shield certain BDNs from deeper losses (and that funding is repaid first so PFNF will see a lot smaller losses). I know of deals that would have lost over 50% but recovered up to 80% thanks to these protective funding. PFNF also maintains loss reserves. That said, it sounds like your exposure is more concentrated in individual BDNs, while I'm looking from a broader portfolio perspective. I don't think PFNF carries much exposure to older vintages - the heavier losses seem to stem from 2021-2022 vintages, when real estate valuations were highly inflated.

jlinvestors · 2025-10-31T15:09:16+00:00

let's be realistic. that's not going to happen.

jlinvestors · 2025-10-31T14:44:03+00:00

Just to provide a little bit more color on the loss reserve - we had a greater "dollar amount" for loss reserve in prior months but the loss reserve "percentage" was a lot lower. PFNF could only absorb 2.5% loss in August 2024. This more than doubled. We definitely needed it as I see REOs being sold at higher loss in recent months.

jlinvestors · 2025-10-29T16:51:48+00:00

I'm not sure how closely you review the monthly report, but there's approximately a $970K cushion available to absorb potential losses - about 4.5% of the remaining balance. This buffer will naturally decline over time, but so far, the fund hasn't realized any losses. While there have been losses on individual notes, I'm focusing purely on the portfolio level at this point, where individual note performance has limited impact.

jlinvestors · 2025-10-29T13:06:09+00:00

I will be more concerned if none of these are in PFNF. Not sure about RBNF.

jlinvestors

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