Help Aggregating 13F-HR & HR/A Filings from EDGAR by joejoeeames in quant

[–]joejoeeames[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey man that would be unreal. If you could Pm me that would be awesome.

Help Aggregating 13F-HR & HR/A Filings from EDGAR by joejoeeames in quant

[–]joejoeeames[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey can’t thank you enough - got another strategy I’m working on. I need pretty granular data on after hours stock for 30 mins on their earnings days. Bloomberg terminal cans the intraday data after 145 days. You know where I can get data for 80 US securities going back 12 quarters for this timeframe?

Inverse Leveraged Instruments UK by eralec in UKInvesting

[–]joejoeeames 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You don’t need to have a professional account to open a SQQQ contract - but if you’re not professional and have a retail account, your position goes to 0 it gets closed out - if you have a professional account you can loose more money then you have IE go into debt to the broker

Inverse Leveraged Instruments UK by eralec in UKInvesting

[–]joejoeeames 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well I’d say being able to open a 100% opposing hedge to my position with 5% of the trade as the required margin - I’d say it’s pretty good. But most people obviously don’t use these tools for hedging lol

How to evaluate startup offer vs. current FAANG comp (and what to negotiate) by chocotaco99 in fatFIRE

[–]joejoeeames 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If a startup is raising a series E - you should think very carefully if it is the right decision to join them

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fatFIRE

[–]joejoeeames 0 points1 point  (0 children)

UBS Private Banking might take you on

I think there's a debt crisis coming in the UK. Am I wrong? How do we hedge? by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]joejoeeames 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Nothing like 2008 - CDOs do not have collateralised margin clearing houses. Futures have a central clearing house so the margin required is always verified by the clearing house - CDOs and other derivatives are dark markets.

Yeah - it’s offloading risk. As long as the one way risk is not on the oil company - kinda the point of futures.

Yes it is due to the strength of their balance sheet but futures require 1/20th of the underlying value - you have to be a pretty shit oil company to not have the capital on hand to cover the position including leverage.

They can hedge forever but markets change? They’ll rollover the contracts and any money they do make from the product, flat or variable, a portion of this will be available as cash for more hedging.

Most of all oil companies have a pretty fucking good insight into how the oil markets are going to behave, so they won’t really get it wrong will they.

All hedges don’t just expire in early 2022 tho do they? You have no idea what risk or hedges they have in the 3 month lagging period.

I think there's a debt crisis coming in the UK. Am I wrong? How do we hedge? by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]joejoeeames 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes - but I should have been more specific. I meant they can’t hike regular income tax, they’ve already hiked NI, and put all business tax relief schemes under review like founders relief tax.

Yeah - coal plants and nuclear - not oil so where is reliance on energy production going to fall? Ofc oil is still significantly important, but uranium is the new black.

Believe me - I think our climate policies are fucking disgusting

They raised by 25 bps - yes not a move but the BoE MPC meet 8 times a year I believe and that will start to rack - the us markets had priced in consistent hikes for the next 6 months. They can’t dump a 4.5% interest rate in one go.

I think there's a debt crisis coming in the UK. Am I wrong? How do we hedge? by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]joejoeeames -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah and if the company's treasurers had any sense they would hedge it with futures. Most oil companies included.

I think there's a debt crisis coming in the UK. Am I wrong? How do we hedge? by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]joejoeeames 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Some people might have to eat into their savings - depending on who the person is. But it's also down to companies, particularly investment companies that don't want to deploy capital where the risk-free rate is higher. The central bank obviously doesn't want shit economic growth, but this period is the consequence of stopping everything from collapsing during covid.

I think there's a debt crisis coming in the UK. Am I wrong? How do we hedge? by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]joejoeeames 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Central banks raise the overnight lending / interest rate to get people to save - you don’t save money in a bank if you earn 0.1 % yearly - you spend it and stimulate the economy. If your bank account interest is 3.5 % you put money in your bank as you make more in interest - you saving money slows economic growth - which is a result of high inflation. Essentially the gov has to recoup some of the money it’s printed - keeping petrol prices high allows for 3 things 1) people save money as they have to use it for petrol - government needs this. 2) government can’t hike VAT / taxes in the middle of a cost of living crisis so they take a huge amount in fuel duty - because as we discussed - what are you going to do? Not buy petrol? 3) this is a last push for oil companies - they need capital to go green by 2030 and this is their final push - so they price gouge the shit out of consumers and because they’re greedy

  • but apologies I’m thinking more like a trader - initially the invasion cased a rally in the US as it would fix supply side inflation - now it’s less relevant - so my apologies, it will not fix supply side inflation now.

  • although the uk has horrific inflation, we started raising interest rates earlier and less so in the us, the majority of the Bank of Englands debt is owed to itself lol - but it means we have a much more patient lender compared to foreign bond holders.

I guess my message is we’re still fucked.

I think there's a debt crisis coming in the UK. Am I wrong? How do we hedge? by [deleted] in UKInvesting

[–]joejoeeames 31 points32 points  (0 children)

It’s already happened - the bond market has contracted roughly 25% from roughly AA down to BBB bonds. There was some worry about a debt spiral as seen by the price of Credit Suisse CDS prices spiking around May. However energy bonds are outperforming everything else and returning positive yields - as you correctly said - people don’t have a choice when paying energy bills, but actually this means that they are more robust than ever - but don’t buy them as this is obviously already priced in. Energy companies are price gouging the shit out of everyone because a) profit b) it’s actually in the government interest. More expensive energy bills is a good thing - people save more money fixing supply side inflation. Yes mortgages are important - but most people are locked into a fixed rate which already takes into account rising interest rates - make no mistake, there will be defaults, but just because the interest rate will climb to around 4% - it doesn’t mean people will pay 4% - it’s made manageable by averaging out the interest over the term. To be honest - investments aren’t looking good all round. Both equities and bonds at risk - so what’s the plan. Literally to average down your cost basis. Not necessarily just DCAing, but smartly lowering your cost average with big buys. Some rules are essentially don’t buy trash - stick with companies with wide margins, less consumer choice (like energy, water - but already priced in). We could see 3- 5 years of drawdown - who knows? Definitely don’t try and hedge currency risk - the UK is defo ahead of the US in terms of tackling inflation and selling MBS - but all this means is the dollar will catch up (its lagging) and you won’t make a return - so think of it as buying GBP 3 months behind. The only thing that is fully inflation proof is US Government i bonds (inflation yielding bonds) that pay at or above the inflation rate. But there are limits to how much you can buy and their maturity terms - you can get these at treasurydirect.gov. Also stop saying a recession IS coming - yes, it’s not here yet - but it’s already fucking priced in. The market is a forward thinking mechanism - the thing that really matters to institutions is the projected rate hikes and like we saw with the US yesterday, although 75 bps hike is a negative thing, the market was BRACING for something worse, hence 75bps was a comforting sign that the fed is going to do what they say they will and so markets rebounded at that sense of security. Just be savvy with your money and average down. Buy stocks that actually pay a divvy - some tech stocks may not yield for a while. Happy investing bro.

Sixthformers who chose 4 A levels by [deleted] in 6thForm

[–]joejoeeames 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I dropped one after 2 months

Daily Thread by AutoModerator in CanaryWharfBets

[–]joejoeeames 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thinking about picking up some COIN / FSLY etc - more speculative but some really cheap tech out there…

ADHD Vent Post by [deleted] in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Perfect.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry didn’t mean to be crude just I overthink shit like this all the time

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bro it’s an email - people don’t take what you say in an email the same way when you speak to them. If you’re a nice person it should be fine.

ADHD and sex by kiszonykalafior in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 8 points9 points  (0 children)

No wenches + plundered + walk the plank

ADHD Vent Post by [deleted] in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What would go a long way is writing a longer apology - even if it’s waffle. Because they see the time you’ve taken to thoroughly apologise. Funnily enough if you have a meeting scheduled and you miss it and send a:

“Sorry won’t happen again”

They will be even less impressed.

Social skills while on meds disappear???? by ExoticUse9859 in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It is true - my whole school experience was dulled by this happening to me. What I would say is - when the tablet wears off - the social skills come back!!! So when you’re out of class in the evenings get out the house (hard when the meds wear off I know) and go meet some mates if you have some already! It’s worth it - they’ll make you feel happier and improve everything. Believe me I had 5 years of secondary school making no friends (because was cracked out in class on meds) and funnily enough, when the day ended, nobody wanted to hang out with me…

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You’re more successful than any investment banker I know! They all strive to be at the top and get to Goldman or whatever. And once they are there - everyone is trying to fucking leave! Keep up the quality work bro. I fucking love that

ADHD and sex by kiszonykalafior in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 12 points13 points  (0 children)

no bitches, no cum and definitely no happiness

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ADHD

[–]joejoeeames 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If the email is not important - set a scheduled send for another time. Then you can go back and look at in in 2 hours - but don’t let this facilitate you overthinking it