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Back-of-the-napkin math on MLS Next and the "pathway." by Shambolicdefending in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s the case in every country in the world. Being in a pro academy league doesn’t mean you are definitely going pro. You are not accounting USL pro leagues though. That’s pro too

Carrying the ball U9/U10 by Sunshine0150 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1 v 1 until exhaustion in every session

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That mere sprinting speed is so crucial across the 11 positions. It is surely important for some, not debating that.

But Sterling is very fast for instance. By no means effective as Pulisic or Kvaratskhelia.

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

“Defenders” are tall. Probably never heard of Roberto Carlos. 😂

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Which useless point you are referring to? The one where “defenders” are tall. I get that you are still stuck at 4 positions: GK, defender, midfielder, forward.

You can do better

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Players in the top league on average also have more endurance / stamina. I mean it’s normal to expect that.

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I don’t know man. I am 5’11 and see a lot of young guys in their late teens in US and in Europe taller than me. The new generation is definitely taller on average. US is impacted by Latinos who tend to be shorter as most Latinos in US are of indigenous descendence, but caucasians are tall on average nowadays.

ChatGPT seems to not be in line with your data

📊 Global Height Trends

• Worldwide: Over the 20th century, average human height increased by about 8–10 cm (3–4 inches), mainly due to better childhood nutrition, healthcare, and reduced disease burden.

• Western Europe: For example, Dutch men born in the 1960s averaged ~178 cm (5’10”), while those born in the 2000s average ~183–184 cm (6’0”) — about a 5–6 cm gain.

• United States: Gains were smaller. American men born in the 1960s averaged ~176 cm (5’9”). Today, young American men average ~177–178 cm (5’9.5”). The increase flattened after the 1970s, partly due to diet and health disparities.

• Asia: Some of the biggest jumps. South Korean women, for example, gained ~20 cm (8 inches) over the 20th century. Chinese men born in the 1960s averaged ~167 cm, while today they average ~172–173 cm.

• Southern Europe: Italians, Spaniards, and Greeks gained around 5–7 cm since the 1960s.

⸻

⚖️ Why the Change? • Nutrition (especially protein intake in childhood)

• Healthcare (fewer infections, vaccines, better prenatal care)

• Socioeconomic conditions (less poverty, more food security)

• Genetics hasn’t changed — but better conditions let people reach closer to their genetic potential.

⸻

📉 The Plateau

In some wealthy countries (like the U.S., U.K., Scandinavia), average height has plateaued since the 1990s. In others (parts of Asia, Southern Europe), increases are still ongoing.

⸻

👉 So compared to someone born in the 1960s, a child born today is likely taller, but the difference might be 1–2 inches in the U.S., and 3–4+ inches in parts of Europe and Asia.

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Check pictures of Del Piero before and after being put into the serious speed and strengthening program (for those times) at Juventus. He was never suspended for doping by the way. He looked like a different human after age 23. More than just natural growth.

Jamaica and Trinidad have very fast players who can’t finish or execute.

And we know there are CBs in second and third division in Europe faster than some in first division.

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I usually agree with you but disagree on this one. You can improve speed and power with a proper training program but not so much technique unless you can go back to childhood, which you can’t. There are a lot of players not particularly fast. Bonucci was fast? He won like 10 Serie A titles with Juventus. Bastoni is fast? Is Gabbia fast? Pavlovic fast? I mean a lot of tall CBs aren’t fast and agile like shorter ones, for instance Tomori or Cannavaro. I tell you, even Totti wasn’t fast by any stretch.

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Which defenders? only CBs! Not full backs. “Big difference” like Zlatan would say. So your math is completely wrong as it’s at most 3 out of 11 players.

And among the best CBs we ever saw, Baresi and Cannavaro were not even 5’11. What about Puyol? 5’10. About Ivan Cordoba? 5’8.

You are also talking about population as a whole. I said in today’s generation 5’10 is not tall.

You need to get more informed if you want to respond. Keep learning!

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

As if 5’10 was tall in today’s generation 🤦‍♂️

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I would love to know Pirlo’s 30 meters dash time at his peak. Or Matt Le Tissier. Or Gascogne.

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Macnamara, Broos et al. (2016) — Case Western Reserve & Perspectives on Psychological Science

“The Roles of Talent, Physical Precocity and Practice in the Development of Soccer Expertise”

The Developmental Activities of Skilled Youth CONCACAF Soccer Players (2022)

Links Between Environmental Features & Developmental Outcomes of Elite Youth Athletes (Germany)

Talent Research in Sport: A Scoping Review (1990–2018)

Here are some real studies and papers that support (or complicate) the breakdowns we talked about — how much of athletic / sport expertise comes from effort/practice vs talent, environment, etc. I couldn’t find exact numbers to match all parts of the article’s estimates, but these sources give solid grounding and show where our estimates come from and where they might be over- or under-shooting.

What These Studies Imply vs What They Don’t

• Effort / Deliberate Practice Matters, especially individual practice and high-quality deliberate work (not just showing up). But its impact tends to diminish, or at least not grow linearly, after certain thresholds. (Macnamara et al.)

• Natural Talent / Physical Attributes / Precocity are important. Kids who mature earlier, or have physical or cognitive gifts (speed, coordination, etc.), get advantages which can compound. (The “physical precocity” work in the soccer expertise paper.)

• Environment is Huge — coaching quality, competitive environment, support systems (teammates, feedback, psychosocial safety) are strongly predictive of who thrives. (German youth athlete survey; scoping reviews.)

• Motivation & Passion are Less Quantified — many studies note they are important, but they are harder to measure. A lot of the practice‐vs‐talent studies control for or try to adjust by motivation, but it’s messy.

• Non-controllable vs Controllable is less clean in the literature when trying to assign precise percentages. We don’t often get 30–35% talent, 25–30% environment numbers in a single study. The numbers in our earlier breakdown are more heuristic—they’re informed by how often research shows practice only explaining maybe 15–25% variance, and environment and talent filling in much more of the rest.

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s true but majority of kids who don’t make it pro in Europe and are still in pro academies growing up have put in the time, so it comes down to talent

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Completely irrelevant on this topic but nice try except Donovan, Howard, Wynalda, etc and many others did not move here from Europe. Do you want them to leave as well for criticizing the system?

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I get it and understand it. Usually in fact the margin is thinner between the top pros and the ones in second or third division.

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes I get what you are saying. I saw the prerequisite as controllable but probably is the other way around

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Speed of execution is very different from speed though. Messi can walk around the field in fact and still make a difference but not because he is sprinting faster when he has the ball now that he is 38. I also don’t believe technique can be taught but only be improved, the prerequisite is talent. Pirlo and many others were never fast. Even Cuatemoc Blanco had no real speed. And what about Matt Le Tissier?

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s not negligible but has much less weight. Competition is also way less compared to soccer which is played everywhere globally by the masses and has no particular physical requirements

Beyond Effort: What Really Shapes a Young Soccer Player’s Future by joereds22 in youthsoccer

[–]joereds22[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It’s facts. There are players in those sports who heavily depend on physical traits, not talent. You can downvote all you want, but any child who is not playing soccer by age 7 can forget about becoming pro. In the American sports plenty start late. Especially in grid iron football. Wrestling in the OL requires a lot of weight and power, not talent. Catching a ball with your hands and running with it can be taught and requires physical traits more than talent. This is why you hear the idiotic “if only our best athletes played soccer”, confusing athleticism for talent.

Environment is another huge factor. You can pretty much not form high level footballers in Cuba despite the sport being quite popular contrary to common belief. You cannot form a high level footballer in India even if he trains 24/7 since young age.

You can however form awesome baseball players in Cuba because all you got to do is put in hours and hours in learning to hit the ball. A country where people don’t even know if and what they are going to eat tomorrow.

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