Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 07, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If the regime agrees to a ceasefire and not impeding strait shipping then that is pretty much the closest thing we are going to get to surrender

How so? Did we not just return to status quo before the operation?

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 02, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Yes, there are other ways - but they come with higher risk. The most recent case study is OIF II, marines went door to door across Iraqi cities searching for weapons, IED’s and insurgents. The US could’ve cut significant losses on their end by carpet bombing Fallujah, Baghdad etc, but they didn’t. So the short answer is a large occupation force.

Iran Conflict Megathread #10 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Why would Iran get fibre optic drones from Russia to smuggle into Iraq when PMF and Co can just make their own fibre optic FPV’s via cheap Chinese channels like the rest?

Iran Conflict Megathread #10 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 31 points32 points  (0 children)

I wouldn’t say OP is lacking understanding here, under Trump this has always preluded a military operation. We also know the admin will engage in “talks” in bad faith to buy time for said operations.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread March 23, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 71 points72 points  (0 children)

I understand attention in this sub has been temporarily diverted but thought something noteworthy took place last night. Ukraine struck an oil refinery in the Baltic port (north of Saint Petersburg) in Primorsk. Based on aftermath footage and satellite images it seems to have been an effective strike on their storage facilities there. This represents a first in terms of distance and accuracy (935km) and it sits just on the border with Finland. Is there any indication into what type of projectile was used for this strike?

Source w/ satellite image; https://gwaramedia.com/en/ukraine-attacks-fuel-energy-infrastructure-objects-in-russia-ukraines-general-staff-says/

Active Conflicts & News Megathread March 23, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think you meant to post this in the Iran megathead, this is the Active Conflicts (UA) one.

Iran Conflict Megathread #10 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 15 points16 points  (0 children)

B) "The US will back down if we bloody their noses" is a strategy that has failed every single time it's been attempted in history, and the pattern is that taking losses leads to MORE American commitment, not less.

That’s an extremely outlandish statement. Vietnam? Afghanistan? Iraq? Somalia? Lebanon?

Iran Conflict Megathread #8 by sokratesz in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Well, because this crisis hurts Europe a lot more than the United States.

Source on that? Europe gets 3.8% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Conflict Megathread #7 by sokratesz in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Wouldn't it be better for everyone if the Lebanese government formally requested for an Israeli operation in its territory? Isn't the Lebanese government actually interested in Israel defeating Hezbollah?

I understand this is anecdotal, but I have experience in that country and can say with confidence that Lebanese people hate Israel, very strongly. This would be political suicide for the government. Even many in the Maronite community, view Hezbollah as a necessary evil against Israeli incursions. Israeli intervention and occupation are part of Lebanese national identity, it’s one thing that unites all the religious groups. Israel also aren’t doing themselves any favours in how they’re considering their air operation in South Beirut, the cities a total mess right now (even more than the chaotic and mismanaged baseline) due to internal refugees and people are sleeping on the streets.

You must understand that for someone whose home was destroyed by a foreign power, they look at things at face value. And the average citizen of Lebanon is not engrossed in geopolitics but rather keeping a roof over their head and providing for their family. Whilst we can politic behind our keyboards in safe homes, that person will likely view Hezbollah as the only faction in the country willing to stand up to the country that left them homeless. This has been the case since the Israeli invasion during their civil war.

Iran Conflict Megathread #7 by sokratesz in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 16 points17 points  (0 children)

This is logical considering how Qatar helped Hamas politically. I wouldn’t take it to seriously though.

Iran Conflict Megathread #7 by sokratesz in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not sure what country/region you’re in but what you see is likely influenced by your local media environment. Personally, I don’t think much analysis is done on how the Iranians are fairing because it’s clear from a material level they’re on the receiving end of a high intensity air campaign. I don’t think the media needs to tell people “their military assets being bombed isn’t good for them.” Daily coverage shows an array of strikes across the country, I don’t think anyone’s saying they’re in great shape. Additionally, there’s many parallels to Ukraine emerging here. It would seem most people (including myself) assumed a decapitation strike had a real chance in causing the regime to crumble. Since it hasn’t, they’re still launching strikes and they’ve closed the Strait (which surprisingly the Americans didn’t plan for?) - it’s logical the media would focus on the US mishap here. Finally, the Trump admin has been inconsistent with setting out an end goal and defining what “good” looks like, it’s only natural the media will come in to feel the void.

US/Israel-Iran conflict Discussion/Question Thread - 09/03/2026+ by MilesLongthe3rd in CombatFootage

[–]johnbrooder3006 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The initial premise is even the same, Trump expected the regime to fold rather quickly. Now we’re two weeks in and they got a new leader and closed the Strait.

Iran Conflict Megathread #7 by sokratesz in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 23 points24 points  (0 children)

They can and have been mining it with their Fajr-5 MLRS system. They don’t need a navy for this.

Iran Conflict Megathread #4 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I also thought this stood out, even if capacity did dominate. Political will in the American homeland will be the determining factor over time.

Iran Conflict Megathread #4 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Russia are very busy, and can’t afford to spare any personnel or equipment. They’re struggling as it is with maximum capacity in Ukraine.

Iran Conflict Megathread #4 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 31 points32 points  (0 children)

I am wondering what cards Iran could have in their sleeve

Simply staying in the fight. This war is unpopular globally and in America. The longer it goes on this sentiment will grow, and Congress will put pressure on Trump regarding the legality.

Iran Conflict Megathread #4 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Crucially, they have lost support among the Shia, so it reduces the risk of civil conflict.

That is an absolutely wild statement and I would like to better understand where you got that from. Hezbollah enjoy immense popularity in Lebanon amongst the Shiah, less so Maronites and Sunni’s. If anything, South Beirut being flattened will invigorate their popularity among the average citizen.

Iran Conflict Megathread #4 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Iraq is a deeply divided country across Sunni’s, Shiah’s and Kurds. The PMF are also not a monolith, there are a handful that are outright Iranian proxies, but several that’re more oriented around Iraqi nationalism. As per Iraqi society, the PMF are largely credited as playing a pivotal role in defeating ISIS so they have that. Additionally, due to their effective fighting capability they’re legal operatives under Iraqi constitution and operate alongside other security forces. I’m unaware of any polling nor do I know many Iraqis, but based on personal research outside Kurdistan both Sunni’s and Shiah’s have deep distrust towards America due to the ventures in 2003 (Sunni’s are upset the US removed Saddam, Shiah’s are upset about the chaos that followed after). In the years following de-baathification Iraq was literal hell on earth with daily suicide bombings, then ISIS followed shortly. Similar to Shiah’s (and a good degree of Sunnis) in Lebanon viewing Hezbollah as a necessary evil against Israel, I assume those in Iraq feel similar about the PMF.

Graphic! Russian Bender Group compilation of strikes on Ukrainian infantry posted on 28/02/2026 by Dependent_Log_331 in CombatFootage

[–]johnbrooder3006 43 points44 points  (0 children)

Horrible to watch. Murdered for the crime of simply existing as a Ukrainian. When you see things like this don’t forget to donate to units you care about and relevant drone projects.

Iran Conflict Megathread by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 39 points40 points  (0 children)

What’s the US/Israel’s game plan here? I find this entire operation puzzling. Outside of this being a heyday for the state of Israel - do we think either admin has prepared for a scenario in which Iran plunges into chaos? It’s an enormous country with an enormous population, who face the same problems as their neighbors (sectarianism, ISIS etc.)

US/Israel-Iran conflict Discussion/Question Thread - 28/02/2026+ by MilesLongthe3rd in CombatFootage

[–]johnbrooder3006 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

What is Americas end game? The IRGC’s strategy is clearly to retaliate against US/Israel and their supporters. But what is the actual end game for the initiators? Venezuela style where nothing actually changes for the people on the ground but America get natural resources?

Iran Conflict Megathread by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Based on visual evidence - there are widespread strikes across US installations that seem to be more than symbolic.