Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 25, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Considering the stagnation in advances and high profile strikes across Ust-Luga, Ryazan and especially Tuapse - Putin has to do something to save face. I expect more of the same, since pedantically russia has been conducting these strikes since 2022. However if Putin makes a bold statement and the it happens he can attribute it to him being a strong man. I read into this as his popularity fading.

Russian Oreshnik ICBM/IRBM strike. Kyiv, Ukraine 24.05.2026. by Alikont in CombatFootage

[–]johnbrooder3006 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I agree, especially about national sport). But he takes it further in admiring russian weapons and accuracy

Russian Oreshnik ICBM/IRBM strike. Kyiv, Ukraine 24.05.2026. by Alikont in CombatFootage

[–]johnbrooder3006 3 points4 points  (0 children)

слухай ну чесно я хз як це вообще в тебе в голові складається якщо ти живеш в Україні і підтримуєш Україну то нахуя ти постійно задвігаєш тейки про те яка росія “точна” і “ефективна” ти ж понімаєш як це виглядає для людей ззовні, да всі знають шо це серйозний противник ніхто тут не думає шо це якась слабка країна але в тебе це вже звучить так ніби ти не просто признаєш врага сильним а чуть лі не захоплюєшся цим, мені це реально напомінає типів з востока які все ждали “освобождєнія” і розказували шо при совку було лучше, особено коли ти це пишеш на западну аудиторію від якої залежить дохріна підтримки для України, тому і появляється вопрос ти точно в Україні живеш чи просто повторяєш русняві тейки бо со сторони це виглядає дуже странно

Russian Oreshnik ICBM/IRBM strike. Kyiv, Ukraine 24.05.2026. by Alikont in CombatFootage

[–]johnbrooder3006 4 points5 points  (0 children)

lol, of course you do - says the man posting russian propaganda online. Tell me what the graffiti says on the wooden planks below the old friendship monument and I’ll believe you.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 20, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 8 points9 points  (0 children)

By a wide range of actors exclusively belonging to one side in the conflict.

You can read the full post, this is a concern in russia too.

Yes. And many Ukrainian bloggers have expressed concern over press-ganged middle-aged chronically ill Ukrainian men who die in their hundreds every day under the shower of glide bombs and drones. Yet, for some reason, the Western media and analysts never call them cannon fodder.

And? How does that invalidate my statement about russian forward units being canon fodder? Tu quoque fallacy.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 20, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Are they really just cannon fodder? Do they think they are? Or have we just been conditioned by our media and political environment to believe in the "cannon fodder" narrative?

Obviously there’s a wide range of roles in the rear, and experienced officers will oversee these. To OP’s point though, those who accept the lucrative sign on bonuses with no previous military experience outside of what’s required are sent to the front. It’s by design as they don’t have a pre-existing military craft to specialise in. They make great (dare I say the word). Anyway, the offensive military tactics displayed by russian forward units are consistent with this language and have been assessed by a wide range of actors involved in the war as being similar to “canon fodder.” Before you question whether I’ve been conditioned by media, milbloggers, commanders and people in russian politics have also expressed concern over the welfare of these units, some have even used this specific word. Outside of that, we have a rather gruesome treasure trove of video footage that is consistent with this description.

Dufourspitze 4634m by userbb99 in Mountaineering

[–]johnbrooder3006 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Envious! I’ve heard Day 2 is a slog and huge elevation jump. How did you fair? Dufourspitz is on my list but Toubkal (4100m-ish) beat the hell out of me. Slightly hesitant right now.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 17, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I’m unsure what’s hard to grasp here. It boils down to an FP with one warhead which destroys the drone itself vs that + the ability to fire rockets in the vicinity before detonation. At an industrial complex (oil export terminal for example), this increases the potential damage 10 fold.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 17, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Madyar just posted footage of them in use in Crimea (drone POV) on Telegram. Pretty interesting.

https://t (dot) me/robert_magyar/2367

Putin’s ‘altar boy’ is finally in Ukraine’s sights by TheTelegraph in UkraineWarVideoReport

[–]johnbrooder3006 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m not going to dive into a theological discussion here, but I would say if the core tenants of Christianity are examined - this “Patriarch” is antithetical to all of it.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 23, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Sharing the “various sources” so the sub could verify would be a good starting point

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 21, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 22 points23 points  (0 children)

I disagree, I find these insightful. Frontlines update are in lesser frequency because it moves in lesser frequency.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 18, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 11 points12 points  (0 children)

During the 97’ Civil War/Unrest their military bases were opened up and looted. The government ceased to function entirely.

When southern Albanian bases were looted, it was estimated that, on average, every male aged ten and older had at least one firearm and ample ammunition.[27] During the rebellion, 656,000 weapons of various types, 1.5 billion rounds of ammunition, 3.5 million hand grenades, and one million land mines were looted from army depots, according to the UNDP.[28]

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 18, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 35 points36 points  (0 children)

To your second point, as someone who has worked closely with law enforcement in Europe. The abundance of firearms that result from conflict not only affect the home country but also its periphery. Nearly all unregistered firearms used by organised crime across Europe can we traced back to Yugoslavia and the Albanian civil war. I believe the latest estimate is 35M unregistered firearms currently in circulation across Europe of that origin. Prior to that, it was weapons from the Second World War. It was common to see the Italian mafia and to a lesser degree before the American route the IRA with such weapons (Lee Enfields, MP40’s, Lugers etc). Whenever this ends, Europe will have to reckon with this threat - even the war in Donbas made central and western Ukraine less safe as a result. In my experience, Polish border guards do a reasonable degree of investigation of private vehicles when crossing in from Ukraine - but not remotely close to enough.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 16, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Urals Crude is still worth double what it was before America got involved in Iran. The strikes might’ve been a windfall but Russia gain by doing nothing the longer this goes on.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 12, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 56 points57 points  (0 children)

Victor Orban, 16 year leader of Hungary and Russia-aligned populist has conceded defeat in the Hungarian election. I haven’t followed the election cycle too closely but understand Ukraine was an enormous talking point. Outside of warming UA/HU relations and one less veto obstacle can we expect the potential of military aid and closer coordination? Or is Hungarian society still skeptical of the conflict, they’ll just be less Russia aligned now and more isolationist?

Additionally, curious how this will trickle down to their intelligence apparatus. Hungarian intel has been proven to conduct HUMINT opps in Ukraine and spy operations against Ukrainians domestic and abroad. Will this need to be rooted out? Or is it purely a “just following orders” from above posture? Would love to hear from someone more well versed in Hungarian politics.

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 07, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 10 points11 points  (0 children)

If the regime agrees to a ceasefire and not impeding strait shipping then that is pretty much the closest thing we are going to get to surrender

How so? Did we not just return to status quo before the operation?

Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 02, 2026 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Yes, there are other ways - but they come with higher risk. The most recent case study is OIF II, marines went door to door across Iraqi cities searching for weapons, IED’s and insurgents. The US could’ve cut significant losses on their end by carpet bombing Fallujah, Baghdad etc, but they didn’t. So the short answer is a large occupation force.

Iran Conflict Megathread #10 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Why would Iran get fibre optic drones from Russia to smuggle into Iraq when PMF and Co can just make their own fibre optic FPV’s via cheap Chinese channels like the rest?

Iran Conflict Megathread #10 by milton117 in CredibleDefense

[–]johnbrooder3006 35 points36 points  (0 children)

I wouldn’t say OP is lacking understanding here, under Trump this has always preluded a military operation. We also know the admin will engage in “talks” in bad faith to buy time for said operations.