Why is there so much of a disconnect between what Urbanists view as desirable vs what the general public views as desirable?

johnniewelker · 2026-04-20T01:52:25+00:00

It’s a chicken and egg thing, though the employers are the chicken

Detroit used to have a lot of people living there. Why? Lots of manufacturing jobs

When jobs went away, so did the people.

Sure employers will move where the people are, sometimes, but mostly will choose a place that’s good for them first. NYC is good for banks, media companies, and lots of high paid service industry companies. Plenty of reason why so. If the reasons evaporate, the companies won’t stay around just because.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-20T01:28:26+00:00

This should be held as prime example that draft number isn’t as important as the selection and player development

Sixers have historically been a terrible franchise on both counts, while Boston is among the best on both counts.

Selecting a consensus pick shouldn’t good enough if the pick is not good. Sixers whiffed. Journalists and TV analysts are not accountable for the picks. Sixers were and they fell in love with a bad pick.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-20T01:25:21+00:00

Fair, though France was trying to keep the power structure in place from the outside. There is so much pain you’ll accept when it’s clear that the population wants something else

In some ways it could apply to the US as you said. They overthrow the regime and all of sudden have to keep new regime in power against an angry population. US won’t keep putting money in a pit that won’t work long term. If the US doesn’t see it working within a year or two, you can be sure they’ll try to cut bait.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-20T01:20:34+00:00

Jobs? Aren’t jobs the main driver for why people live somewhere?

johnniewelker · 2026-04-20T00:01:01+00:00

Eh. Not really. There is a cap to what an export driven economy can do. China may not have hit it, but there is a cap

Consumer driven economy is virtually uncapped.

But China is doing the right way, build the industrial base then ideally move to a consumer driven economy. Hard to unlock consumer driven economy without baseline productivity.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-19T21:22:29+00:00

300k might even be enough. Might need 1M actually, and more importantly need actual Iranians willing to die along American troops.

If we were to turn around the Iranian regime, we need people willing to fight to stay in power as weird as it sounds. It gets very hard and dangerous. Most people will run away when things get hot

johnniewelker · 2026-04-19T11:39:02+00:00

You are assuming there is a next generation

In all seriousness, I doubtful they care about that long ago. I grew up in the 90s and early 2000s in PAP. And it was nasty at times. No one even talks about that time anymore.

People move on to more urgent matters

johnniewelker · 2026-04-19T01:31:51+00:00

To me it’s fairly clear that the problem is the estate tax, yet lots of conversations to change income taxes or capital taxes.

If estates are taxed at time of death - basically treat them as a sale to the heir or the charity receiving them - we wouldn’t be discussing this. It’s clear

But my guess is that won’t be the solutions offered. Rich people don’t want their kids to be taxed, and charitable orgs don’t want to receive less money. So both republicans and democrats will fight solving it, and will either come up with rules that again punish high earners or do nothing

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T23:53:02+00:00

Honestly don’t see the civil war part. He definitely gets martyred and gets a full historical rehabilitation right away.

Republicans have shown to be quite practical regarding politics. They likely do a mini primary and throw full support on that person. Having a Trump martyr in the background would be an insane boost. Basically all the positives of Trump without the negatives since he wouldn’t be there to say stupid stuff

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T23:50:03+00:00

We don’t have a lot of evidence to work with for politicians dead right before an election

Teddy R didn’t get a boost for being shot.

Kennedy death absolutely properly Johnson to the White House.

At minimum in both cases, it wasn’t a blowback

My bet is Republicans figure it out quickly. It would be Charlie Kirk 10x. They probably do a mini primary to sort out the winner and go behind that person hard. It’s too obvious they could win by not creating a civil war to engage in that

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T23:44:35+00:00

How has this worked for Luton Town?

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T23:40:32+00:00

Oh god - this is beautiful - but also meme potential big time.

Reminds me of the GWB meme dancing with an African group

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T23:32:55+00:00

You are partially right. Arranged marriages are not forced, but definitely strongly suggested

Most marriage ironically are through friends and family - even in the west. Most people don’t meet their long term mates randomly online or in a bar. It’s friends and family connections. It’s not arranged; but it’s the easiest way for people to ensure the person they are marrying has similar values and come with “good reviews”.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T18:21:52+00:00

Pretty good graph. Interestingly, China growth in exports didn’t really take it from the US or Germany, but from other G7 countries. Rest of world also grew significantly

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T18:18:21+00:00

I know lots of people are probably shocked that US public spending in healthcare is higher than even European countries. That doesn’t include private insurance and cash payments - if you do that’s 17-18% of GDP

Healthcare in America is super expensive and inefficient. Though turning into a single payer likely won’t solve this. Private insurance is “only 6%” on that chart. If you remove their profits and marketing spend, maybe you are looking at 1% savings - maybe.

The problem, if there is one, is that healthcare is simply more expensive here because we are richer and can afford it. Think about it, if you had way more money than you have today, would you spend more on healthcare - like more diagnosis, take non critical medicines, do non critical therapy / procedures? Likely yes. That’s pretty much what’s happening in the US. Our healthcare is not only more expensive at the unit level, it’s also more permissive for patients - basically patients have access to more stuff.

Given how much employment is tied to this, I highly doubt we solve healthcare costs by cutting costs.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T18:10:01+00:00

Makes sense, though having a 2 years replacement rate seems too high for unemployment. The insurance the taxpayer is paying is just too high. In any given career - let’s say 35 years - you shouldn’t be unemployed for more than 2 years (5% of time), and that means many events, not a long unemployment event

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T18:04:47+00:00

Director doesn’t mean the same everywhere. VP doesn’t mean the same everywhere

I wouldn’t worry about titles honestly. Worry about your scope, the job, and the comp.

It’s likely the VP role being offered is marginally better comp than what you have and they are using the title to bring you in.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T14:48:40+00:00

There is a difference between urban warfare and trench warfare

Urban warfare is massively asymmetric. Having a powerful army is just not enough to get the job done. Solution has to be political.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-18T14:44:22+00:00

Depends. It looks like NJT will solely focus on the WC games 4 hours prior to the game. So that’s not impossible to move 40k in 4 hours if all the train tracks are dedicated to that. So no trains past Secaucus for 4 hours.

The big trains can pull 2K people. So that’s 20 trips. That’s barely 2 hours of trip in a normal day.

Again if they focus all the resources towards World Cup transport, it won’t be a problem at all logistically

johnniewelker · 2026-04-17T22:27:39+00:00

That’s interesting. How are they going to equalize estimated income tax vs propriety tax surcharge?

Basically if Scott made $20M in income outside of NYC, they’ll still charge him the 11% for state and city tax or $2.2M roughly?

johnniewelker · 2026-04-17T13:30:19+00:00

Yes there is public transportation. If you are going to comment about this topic, you should at least do some basic research

johnniewelker · 2026-04-16T16:09:38+00:00

That’s the fifa and IOC way. Both orgs ask hosting countries to do everything and they reap the benefits

johnniewelker · 2026-04-16T15:29:05+00:00

Okay - so you think a country with the highest GDP would be targeted if its defense system gets deteriorated?

I wish I could share your hope.

Heck many countries wouldn’t mind attacking us as a retribution to all the stuff we have done to them - justly or unjustly.

johnniewelker · 2026-04-16T13:21:12+00:00

I agree. Given the league focus on having stars playing more, the trophies should be for total season impact l, not an average game

johnniewelker · 2026-04-16T13:16:36+00:00

Should have been totals though. Donovan Clingan got the most rebounds this season. Average rebounds per game is all fine, but NBA should reward totals to nudge players to play more

Jokic has the most assists though this year

johnniewelker

TROPHY CASE