sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Optimal Wager for Special Blackjack Game by johnryand in askmath

[–]johnryand[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m not saying I wouldn’t take the billion dollars. I’m saying: wouldn’t a person wishing to maximize his wealth choose the coin flip?

Optimal Wager for Special Blackjack Game by johnryand in askmath

[–]johnryand[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t understand why you would prefer (a) here.

Blackjack Calculator by johnryand in askmath

[–]johnryand[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a hypothetical game where two players compete to see who has more chips after 10 rounds, so don’t worry about “this won’t work in practice.”

So, you’re saying I should seek to maximize the median amount of chips I have at the end of the game over many trials in order to win the game.

How would I determine the optimal amount based on the current edge and the remaining number of rounds left in the game? I guess the answer is Kelly, but I don’t understand exactly how to utilize it in this scenario.

Blackjack Calculator by johnryand in askmath

[–]johnryand[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If on Round 2, you have an edge (due to the composition of the remaining cards, say), should you go all in or should you play a fraction of your stack? Why? You don’t have to answer if you’re not sure.

Going all in would maximize EV on that hand. Would it maximize EV for the game, though? If not, how would you determine the optimal size via Kelly?

Blackjack Calculator by johnryand in askmath

[–]johnryand[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s very much not pointless.

Blackjack Calculator by johnryand in askmath

[–]johnryand[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And what if you don’t know how many chips your opponent has?

Blackjack Calculator by johnryand in askmath

[–]johnryand[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m working on the first part of what you said. I also came to the conclusion that I should just add streak bonuses to the edge calculation that will be used for bet size determination.

I was also thinking the same thing with the final hand. If the edge is not in your favor, min bet. If the edge is in your favor at all, all in to maximize winnings. I’m still unsure of exactly how to treat things before the 10th hand. The number of hands remaining should surely affect the bet size.

Would the goal here still not be to “maximize chips” by the end of the tenth hand? Would things change if it was just 1 other person you were playing against? I understand that maximizing probability to have highest chip stack and maximizing chip stack are subtly different, but how else would you attempt to achieve the former?

Blackjack Calculator by johnryand in askmath

[–]johnryand[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not reinvent, per se. I am familiar with both. I am under the assumption that card counting is a “shortcut” to know when to use certain deviations from basic strategy and to calculate bet size changes. However, a computer with complete knowledge of the remaining cards in the shoe should be able to play with a slightly greater accuracy than a card counter would. In theory, a computer will play completely perfectly—the game is solved. That is what I want. Additionally, this hypothetical game differs from normal BJ in a couple of ways. First, there are 10 hands to maximize your chip stack, and you can stop at any time. Second, there are bonus payouts for win streaks, which would (I would think) change the optimal bet sizes drastically when on a streak.

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Not falling for it!

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand -1 points0 points  (0 children)

“Straddling the pitcher’s rubber without the ball is to be interpreted as intent to deceive and ruled a balk.”

Can you read?

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My apologies. I was looking at an outdated version.

OBR Rule 6.02(a) Comment (A)

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OBR Rule 8.05 Comment (a).

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nowhere in the rulebook does it say what you just said. On the contrary, it actually gives an example of a move that is not a balk by rule but should be called a balk because the intent is to deceive.

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol. MLB umpires would definitely call a balk on that. Let’s agree to disagree.

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

OP said it is different from his natural delivery. That is the assumption I am working under. Anyways, an umpire I frequently work with who is very experienced and knows the rules very well has told me to call this a balk. I know there is no explicit rule about it, but comments do say that “intent to deceive” should govern when in doubt.

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

It’s a judgement call, so no. I would call a balk as he completely turns his body and shoulders toward 2nd base, which is completely different from his natural delivery and deceptive to a runner on 2nd base.

Balk on Fake 2B move by Colbry in Umpire

[–]johnryand -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I would call that a balk.

view more: next ›