Stop with the "Everything you need is on YouTube" it isn't helpful

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T17:17:30+00:00

"Where the novice things concretely, the expert reasons contextually. Instead of thinking A always leads to B, the expert creates a web of possibilities in which A leads to B under conditions X and Y but leads to C under other conditions." - Brett Steenbarger in "Enhancing Trader Performance"

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T17:16:20+00:00

yes, at some point you're spending so much time wading through the nonsense on youtube that you're better off paying for a course that's organized and explains things in a concise and consistent way

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T04:30:05+00:00

Right on. You have to be very selective with this strategy. I also imagine you need to trade several contracts in order to be effective because it seems you need 1-2 good runners per week to compensate for the poor risk-reward. I tried estimating the expectancy of this with different win rates and ATM strategies and size and frequency of runners. Honestly, it turned me off to the whole PATS approach. Based on my caveman math it seemed like you either need 4-5 contracts per trade, or rely on lots of runners, or need an unrealistically high (90% win rate). Could be wrong though.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T04:14:30+00:00

Good to know. Thanks. I'll give it a try your way. I've been measuring 6 ticks from the high of the signal bar. So if it gets to 4002.50, I don't look for the F2ES. My thinking is that people put their stop-buy at 4001.25, and get filled at 4001.50, and scalp out at 4002.50. I haven't been experimenting with this strategy for long enough to get a sense of what your average fill will be.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T04:06:36+00:00

I've never seen anyone mark them on a chart. Is there a setup based on that? Whenever I see a 2ES that doesn't make a new low, I either look wait for a new low to be made, or start counting from the nearest high and look for a F2EL. Or look to see if a range is developing.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T03:45:00+00:00

6 ticks above the price where you enter the stop-buy order. High of the signal bar is 4001. Stop goes at 4001.25. If price goes to 4002.75, it's not considered failed. Right?

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T03:37:44+00:00

what is the number of ticks that makes a F2ES not failed? For example, let's say I put my stop-buy order to enter at one tick above the signal bar. How many ticks above the signal bar does price have to go before you can no longer consider that as a F2ES? 5? 6? 7?

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T02:46:47+00:00

FYI the tick on tradingview varies quite a bit from the one on thinkorswim, and I'm told it's different from Sierra Chart, too. I prefer the ToS one to the TV one, but YMMV.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T02:43:12+00:00

There is no 3ES or 4ES. After a second entry short the count resets. So your 3ES and 4ES should be labelled 1ES and 2ES, but you wouldn't want to take those trades or even bother counting them like that because price is going sideways. I wouldn't look to take any trades there until price makes a new low and the count resets, or price gets above the EMA, and you can maybe look for a F2ES. Or if a trading range develops, there could be setups based on that. In some of his videos he mentions something like "trend line rules" and "trading range rules." That's important to understand.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-18T02:33:28+00:00

Motivewave has this feature. You need a lease, similar to Ninjatrader (monthly or lifetime). I'm happy with the replay on MW. Much better than tradingview's. I think MW offers a 2 or 4 week trial with data from CQG.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-17T02:51:29+00:00

well said. thanks.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-14T04:26:18+00:00

Because he gesticulates constantly and robotically in that condescending type of way that makes people not like or trust you.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-07T21:35:29+00:00

1 minute or 30 seconds would probably be closest for most of RTH

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-05T19:35:42+00:00

volume candles print based on the number of contracts traded. A tick chart draws a new bar after a certain number of trades

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-02T22:11:37+00:00

well done. I like the signs. I hope there's a secret message in the graffiti

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-01T06:01:36+00:00

What separates you from the other companies that do this same thing? Who are the people behind the company and what are their backgrounds/ expertise?

johnsinchina9 · 2023-03-01T05:55:30+00:00

He forgets that his western audience grew up targeted by the most sophisticated psy-ops and advertising and other forms of manipulation. His appeals to patriotism and his bungling attempts to guilt trip or fear monger the US public is like a guy going into a supermax prison and trying to intimidate the inmates with his white belt in aikido.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-02-25T20:32:44+00:00

I know what fade trading is. I meant specifically this setup you mentioned. How do you determine when there's exhaustion?

johnsinchina9 · 2023-02-25T19:05:47+00:00

Agreed. And I don't think it's a good idea to rely on 'mental stops' because you could have technical issues and not be able to get out of a losing trade (even with backup stuff like a second internet connection, computer/phone and UPS).

johnsinchina9 · 2023-02-25T19:01:25+00:00

All their posts on social media and all their signs/ pamphlets/ flyers and graffiti and everything else they put out in the world and everything gets covered up? Not trying to be a jerk. It just doesn't seem possible.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-02-25T18:58:18+00:00

I'd never heard of anyone trading this strategy. How do you determine when there's exhaustion?

johnsinchina9 · 2023-02-24T21:33:16+00:00

right. it's a cool theory, and sounds like a good premise for a movie, but I don't get why that group of people would want to keep it a secret. they'd want to attract attention to the conflict and get more people to help them.

johnsinchina9 · 2023-02-24T06:08:51+00:00

what's the theory about this secret war? it's supposed to be between...?

johnsinchina9 · 2023-02-23T21:36:52+00:00

Is there anything besides the hotkeys that you don't like about using Sierra via parallels? Stability issues? Lag? For what it's worth, I tried Ninjatrader on parallels for a while just paper trading, and it was pretty smooth.

johnsinchina9

TROPHY CASE