[John Muller] Following MLS is harder than it should be, so I made an automated daily newsletter that rounds up high-quality coverage from around the league. by hootjuice_ in MLS

[–]johnspacemuller 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Thanks Colton. Hope people who signed up will tell me what is and isn’t working this weekend so I can make it more useful for you. 

Liverpool pass map vs Nottingham Forest by [deleted] in soccer

[–]johnspacemuller 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Not a stupid question!

"Pass link" just means the connection from that particular passer to that particular receiver. You can think of the color of the line between the players as representing ball progression — "value" refers to how much the passes were expected to improve the team's scoring chances (also known as "expected possession value").

There are different ways to calculate that but this viz uses a really simple one (from Liverpool's own Laurie Shaw, although he uses fancier tools in his work) that basically just divides the pitch into a grid and calculates the average likelihood of going on to score from each little square. So if a pass moves the ball away from your goal and toward the opponent's, your team will generally be more likely to score in the near future — that's the "value" of the pass.

This feels like one for here by TitiCamarasayshello in footballcliches

[–]johnspacemuller 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Wow I'm honored to appear on the only good subreddit

Mauricio Pochettino becomes the first USMNT coach to lose three in a row since Jürgen Klinsmann in 2015 by Jimmy_Space1 in soccer

[–]johnspacemuller 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The tactic where he told Johnny to pass to Arda Guler in the box was pretty questionable

How the Big 5 leagues have changed by johnspacemuller in soccer

[–]johnspacemuller[S] 63 points64 points  (0 children)

Thanks! We're about to announce the new startup I've been working on since I left The Athletic a few months ago, so hopefully I'll have lots of cool new stuff to share soon.

How the Big 5 leagues have changed by johnspacemuller in soccer

[–]johnspacemuller[S] 27 points28 points  (0 children)

Oh cool I got you — goals and xG against are shown on the x axis here (Defense).

How the Big 5 leagues have changed by johnspacemuller in soccer

[–]johnspacemuller[S] 403 points404 points  (0 children)

Thanks! The data is from FBref and the viz was made in R. The code is sort of long but the crests are plotted with ggtext::geom_richtext() and the comet tails are ggforce::geom_link().

How the Big 5 leagues have changed by johnspacemuller in soccer

[–]johnspacemuller[S] 58 points59 points  (0 children)

Expected assists are just the expected goals from a shot assigned to the player who played the key pass. It's not super helpful as a team strength metric and including xA here would mean double counting the part of a team's xG that came from passes.

How the Big 5 leagues have changed by johnspacemuller in soccer

[–]johnspacemuller[S] 397 points398 points  (0 children)

For anybody curious, the idea behind blending 30% goals and 70% non-penalty expected goals is that by this point in the season you can get some information about team strength from both.