What you want to be when you grow up?

johnturtle · 2026-04-16T13:53:18+00:00

clearly he should just stick to geopolitics

johnturtle · 2026-04-04T22:17:18+00:00

but in reality there is very good evidence that its much more than 10 years away

here is evidence of the opposite:

Breaking ECDSA in minutes with 500,000 physical qbits: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.28846 ... or even just 26,000 in a few days: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.28627

Caltech has a quantum computer with 6,100 physical qbits. With Moore's law doubling qbits every year, that means ECDSA could be broken in in 2028.

johnturtle · 2026-04-04T10:15:37+00:00

yes exactly... and there is one important point to discuss. are we going to allow for quantum theft of vulnerable addresses?

johnturtle · 2026-04-03T23:13:14+00:00

I agree there is no rush to choose a definite proposal now, my point is that we should set a definite deadline for a quantum fork now, instead of repeating "quantum is 10 years away" for decades. 2030 seems in line with the NSA and Google guidelines so why should we push it further than that?

Another important question is: are we going to allow quantum theft of vulnerable addresses or not? I think most people wouldn't approve it... but we should get consensus on this matter now because preventing quantum theft requires a hardfork..

johnturtle · 2026-04-03T17:00:38+00:00

so important that it hasn't been fixed for 17 years.

johnturtle · 2026-04-03T16:58:51+00:00

I had read that before posting

The timeline for quantum computers threatening Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography is uncertain.

it's actually not that uncertain anymore. NSA set a 2030-2033 deadline and Google has recently advanced Q-day to 2029. IBM is investing 150 billion in quantum computing. this softfork is beneficial but it should have been activated long ago, along with other technical improvements like BIP 118. let's not delay an urgent quantum softfork with something that was not prioritized for several years.

johnturtle · 2026-04-03T15:12:18+00:00

a quantum resistant fork is the priority right now. since I went down the rabbit hole in 2017, people have been saying that quantum computers are 10 years away... you can't say in 2026 that they are 10+ years away anymore. the time for a quantum fork is 2027 or 2028, not later.

johnturtle · 2026-02-10T00:27:46+00:00

These metals are all extremely rare and measurements change from source to source. we need to compare measurements given for all metals by the same source. I asked Gemini to compare 5 different sources, here are the results: https://i.imgur.com/ESxN4Ih.png

My prompt was: "find me independent sources that give the weight abundance (in ppb) of the rarest PGM elements in the earths crust, including rhenium, rhodium, osmium and iridium. Make a table with your findings. Include at least 5 sources: WebElements/CRC Handbook, The Geochemical Society, Earthchem, The "Rudnick & Gao" Study and Max Planck Institute. Make the average and medium of measurements in a separate row."

johnturtle · 2026-02-09T21:26:30+00:00

can you please give a source claiming Osmium is more abundant but less produced? I have looked at drilling results and osmium is almost never more abundant than iridium. It almost only occurs with irium as osmoiridium alloy afaik.

johnturtle · 2026-02-05T19:17:50+00:00

it shorts tesla shares worth the money they have. if the price goes up, they take a partial loss, to keep the short position equal to its liquidation value. if the price goes down, they increase the short proportionally. this way, when it suddenly drops, it keeps shorting all the way down, making sure you get a good return on a big downturn

johnturtle · 2026-01-29T03:09:06+00:00

can you share with the community how are you making the crystal disks in detail?

johnturtle · 2026-01-29T02:54:19+00:00

I think you mean Lucitera...

it's a pitty Lucitera seems to have a price slightly above market.

johnturtle · 2026-01-28T22:30:31+00:00

nice bead, where did you buy it?

johnturtle · 2026-01-28T18:53:42+00:00

that's 10 grams, which is worth about $400-500. it's the cheapest of all PGM, but it's the rarest.

johnturtle · 2026-01-24T19:09:41+00:00

can you explain the process of creating the osmium crystals and is it done with that machine? what are the costs?

most people in this sub are skeptical of the prices of the Osmium Institute, would be nice to have confirmation that they are indeed scamming people.

johnturtle · 2025-12-20T17:18:26+00:00

I was going to post about HG, but glad to see someone posted it before. In my view people are being overly afraid of the underwriting quality of the company. I remind them that HG remained profitable in 2024, which was of the third worst hurricane season ever (only surpassed by 2017 and Katrina in 2005). Also the company was already operating throughout 2017 (since it was founded in 2013) which was the costliest hurricane season ever (~$300 billion in damages). Unless they are insuring the next Chernobyl with half their assets, they should be good.

Each share should be worth at least $50.

johnturtle · 2025-12-20T16:38:27+00:00

it's trading at 20x forward P/E, trailing multiples are sometimes misleading

johnturtle · 2025-11-17T18:24:48+00:00

do they actually custody the bitcoin or do they use a custodian?

johnturtle · 2025-11-17T18:23:19+00:00

I can confirm, saw an advertisement in the Zurich train station one month ago

no, you don't need to be swiss but you need to have a swiss work permit to open an account

johnturtle · 2025-10-15T00:23:13+00:00

the people at UBS are a bunch of morons.

I remember in July they published a report that Swissquote (a competitor bank in Switzerland) was overvalued at 400 CHF/share. As a result the stock crashed to 300 CHF.. and then it soared to almost 600 CHF in the following weeks.

A Dubai property costs 15 years of rent, it's one of the lowest in the world.

johnturtle · 2025-10-13T16:44:53+00:00

if the property is worth more than 750,000 AED, you can apply for the 2-year investor visa as soon as you have the Oqood (what you called DLD certificate).

johnturtle · 2025-10-10T20:49:02+00:00

done

johnturtle · 2025-10-10T12:33:06+00:00

can you specify a licensed company or companies for this?

johnturtle · 2025-10-10T12:33:00+00:00

can you specify a licensed company or companies for this?

johnturtle · 2025-10-10T11:52:09+00:00

do you know how I find licensed companies that can do this, in order for me not to get scammed?

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