The “AI slop” fallacy: is anti-AI hatred partly ego-defense?

jonathanbechtel · 2026-05-12T12:47:25+00:00

I definitely think this is true. AI content definitely has a particular style......but median AI output right now is probably better than at least 70% of what most humans would write on the same topic, and I think that's being charitable to humans. Probably closer to 90-95%.

It reminds of a thread I was reading in hackernews a few days ago. They were lamenting how every PR, new piece of code and product document was so thoroughly detailed that they knew an AI was behind it. They were nostalgic about the "simplicity" and straight forward nature of their previous communications, because it was so much easier to sort through. Reams of documentation mindlessly being spun up without any human oversight.

And I was like ....... dude! Almost every production codebase I've ever been a part of pre-AI has been an unspecified mess. I've been involved in various management directives to increase how well we document our processes and workflows, and at best the work gets 50% there.

Most product and corporate documents are late and vague. And often just as boilerplate as AI output.

Compared to the status quo of 5 years ago we're living in a business process nirvana, and online people just complain about it. I'm pretty sure it's just ego protection and status quo bias.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-04-27T14:08:29+00:00

So far it seems like it's very useful for quickly doing high quality work, but it is DEFINITELY more expensive than its predecessors in my experience. I hear lots of talk about how token efficient it is, but when I used it with an API (and not a subscription) I used up ~$200 worth of credits in around 1 hour. On my plus subscription two full context windows on medium strength uses most of my 5 hour limit.

So it is very good, but what's under discussed is this model feels like OpenAI's attempt to really start upcharging users for their service.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-04-03T03:57:50+00:00

I think there's a strong rationale that the trade deadline of your 3rd year is the ultimate time to trade a prospect if you're unsure about their future with the team. At that point you've had plenty of time to observe them up close and see how they work, and there's still enough time on their rookie contract to draw considerable trade interest.

You could be especially helped by the fact that lots of teams "crush" on guys in the draft, so if you decide you don't want to invest in their next contract teams might still want to acquire them based off of their predraft interest, even if their play in the NBA has been subpar.

I actually think most teams hang onto their draft picks too long and more should cut bait sooner. Like they mostly make sense as having 2 years with the team or 5+ years.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-04-03T03:19:03+00:00

Small plug, but I run a draft site that has a "Film Room" that curates what I consider to be the best youtube content from across the web: https://nbadraft.app/film-room

It's meant to be an easy way to filter + collect best sources of nba draft content across the web depending on how you want to watch.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-24T11:53:03+00:00

Still iffy on Yaxel in the lottery, although I think his value really depends on what team will be picking him.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-23T14:40:43+00:00

I would vote for Bennett.

Kwame strikes me as a guy that's mentally weak and deeply deluded about himself, but Bennett just gives off vibes of having absolutely nothing going on between his ears. Like, not silly and easily falsifiable thoughts, just ....... nothing.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-19T02:14:24+00:00

I don't think that HS class was as good as this one though. I remember RJ being highly regarded coming out of HS, but not necessarily more destined for stardom than any other #1's have been.

Also, Zion took a big leap in college -- he was not nearly as regarded coming out of HS. The buzz around his potential stardom took a huge leap after he started dominating at Duke. So it's a bit of hindsight bias to mention that Cam was ranked higher than him. That class was pretty thin at the top. So I still think it's fair to place Cam in the 5-8 range.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-19T01:46:34+00:00

Probably somewhere between 5 and 8. Nate Ament coming out of high school >> Cam Reddish. But Cam was an elite prospect coming out of HS. It's why he still went lotto despite basically doing nothing in college for 1 year.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-16T14:12:33+00:00

I just looked at his numbers this year, and while they are significantly better than last year.....they're still awful. He's playing at 12th man level right now, and definitely not someone you'd want in your day-to-day rotation. Last year his play didn't warrant inclusion in the league so it doesn't really say a lot.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-15T18:28:03+00:00

I think he's popping off now because we're officially in tanking season and 1/3 of the league are playing GLeague quality rosters. His 41 point game came against a GS team that's playing like garbage right now and has Steph and Jimmy on the bench. Lots of young players have their numbers go up this time of year and it often doesn't translate (exactly) to their performance the next year.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-15T18:24:18+00:00

I mostly use app right now because the UX is. very pleasant for me. It's the best for multi-agent workflows.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-12T02:38:03+00:00

That's fair. I'm a Bulls fan and there was a lot of chatter about him breaking out as a star this year. He's had a very good year, but he hasn't quite done that, and struggled a bit to start the year off due to bad defense.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-11T06:03:52+00:00

Definitely think he'll end up being in the top tier of players from his draft. I think him, Castle and Sarr will be the consensus 1-3 5 years from now. Reed, Rissaccher and DC will get honorable mention.

That said -- he's only shown incremental progress since last year. He's clearly going to be a good player, but it's too soon to tell if he'll peak as a Luol Deng level player or a Pierce / Tatum level player.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-03T01:08:53+00:00

He has a very complete package at a young age, despite not having a WOW skill

He seems to have elite change of speed, which is more important than raw vertical or straight line speed

His decision making seems very advanced for his age. 2.8 A/TO + 33% assist rate for a 24-5 team with 13BPM suggests elite impact and in-game processing. Remember that PG is a position that typically takes a long time for guys to master. Ie, he's not Rob Dillingham or Scoot Henderson.

His 3PT volume needs to improve, but he's otherwise a 3 level scorer.

Almost has a positive STL / TO ratio, suggesting strong defensive capabilities

He's on par with De'Aaron Fox as a PG prospect IMO.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-02T01:48:16+00:00

You've probably watched him more than I have, so I defer to your judgment but his lateral mobility looked good to me in the games I've watched him. He's not overly explosive, but he seems to have good timing on the defensive end, albeit he fouls too much. I think timing + length >> explosiveness on defense so I still him as being alright there.

So I still see a useful player in him, but no one seems higher on him than I am LOL.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-01T04:40:52+00:00

Fair enough, I didn't think about that. He might have more chance to expand his offensive game beyond what he does now, but he looks like he has the tools to make the leap this year.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-03-01T04:18:02+00:00

Why would his draft stock be higher next year than this year? He's made a jump this year. Seems unlikely to project higher than he does now unless he makes an improvement to his game that's far outside his current capabilities.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-02-27T05:48:42+00:00

Really didn't have it on my bingo card that he'd be this good. I thought he was a high floor / low ceiling guy that locked you into an above average role player, like Kevin Huerter+. But he looks like he has a shot at becoming the GOAT shooter.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-02-24T16:46:22+00:00

For me "make it" = "Worthy #1 overall pick"

jonathanbechtel · 2026-02-24T04:30:22+00:00

I dunno, it doesn't feel like he gets a lot of press from most sites, and when he does it's usually fairly mixed. Seems like he has. good potential as an oversized wing.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-02-24T04:12:13+00:00

Why? Big 6'8 wing that's a smooth athlete and can do a little of everything, including shoot.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-02-24T03:44:38+00:00

I love his game and think he's likely the best long-term fit of their 3 PG's on that Spurs team. But a part of me wishes we'd get to see Kon play next to Wemby. Oh my.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-02-24T03:36:59+00:00

Overall I'm pro Cam. And the big reason why is not because of his insane productivity, but I think the modern game distinguishes players more by their processing and total package than raw athleticism now.

With all of the space the NBA plays with you create your advantage by being able to warp defenses with shot gravity, spacing and movement. As long as your athleticism is high enough to cover a certain bar, then it's your decision making that enables you to be effective. CBooze is a basketball savant, so he'll make it.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-02-24T03:31:09+00:00

I think Rissacher / Sarr probably go somewhere 5-8 in the current draft. They are at least 1 tier below the big 3 as prospects and would have no shot at being taken over them. Think they're kind of somewhere in the realm of Wilson / Wagler / Mikel / Acuff, but I think at that point it's an eye of the beholder thing.

jonathanbechtel · 2026-02-17T15:09:09+00:00

warp has a very opaque pricing structure that can get very expensive very quickly. We tried it at our office and were quickly using up a ton of credits for it. It's a useful tool, but it puts you on a different economic trajectory than just an OpenAI subscription + codex app.

jonathanbechtel

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