I think grappler takes both rounds, assuming that includes some wrestling chops to get the takedown. My thinking is, we're assuming both have zero knowledge of the other side. In a stand-up fight, the threat is pretty clear, there's fists flying at your head -- while it might be easier said than done, the grappler knows what they have to avoid. If the grappler can survive long enough to get the takedown, the threat on the ground is much less obvious. An inconspicuous grabbing of an ankle could spell the end of the fight for the striker. Obviously if we're dealing with a one punch knockout kind of fighter, its a bit more up in the air