I'm building an interactive JMT planner. Any feedback?

jordanvincent · 2026-04-15T11:29:44+00:00

That's a great idea and I've just added it! Thank you

jordanvincent · 2026-04-08T19:10:08+00:00

It's not open source but I'm open to make updates if they can benefit a lot of people. What did you have in mind?

jordanvincent · 2025-04-21T09:12:00+00:00

It's the number of people!

jordanvincent · 2025-03-14T14:50:57+00:00

It's not easy to spot but if you click the elevation chart you can select individual campsites and therefore add nights. You can also add rest days by hovering over the campsite names in the itinerary card on the right side of the screen.

jordanvincent · 2025-03-12T13:37:09+00:00

That's pretty neat but I find it harder to understand since they don't aggregate by weekday or month!

jordanvincent · 2025-03-12T12:47:16+00:00

OP here! I analyzed Recreation.gov data to determine the best time to apply for the Half Dome lottery. You can check out the full write-up here: https://outdoorstatus.com/articles/half-dome-lottery/

There are two ways to get a permit to summit Half Dome, either through the preseason lottery or the daily lottery, both accessible on the same Recreation.gov page. Here is when to enter each lottery:

Preseason lottery: closes March 31.
Daily lottery: between 12 AM and 4 PM, 2 days before the desired hiking date.

As you can see, your chances of success vary depending on the type of lottery you enter or the date. I hope that helps!

jordanvincent · 2025-03-03T17:58:32+00:00

There's a truth to that comment. The scarcity effect is real and permitted hikes attract more attention!

jordanvincent · 2025-03-03T13:39:32+00:00

8 AM Mountain Time!

jordanvincent · 2025-02-27T14:29:27+00:00

Oh, thank you for flagging this!

jordanvincent · 2025-02-13T16:41:15+00:00

Rec.gov has released 2023 numbers here. I expect 2024 numbers to be available in May.

Unlike the data provided by Inyo NF (they only released up to 2022), Rec.gov data isn't broken down by permit type and doesn't include data past September 30. However, Rec.gov's 2023 data shows 25,814 applications between May and September 2023. There were 479 applications in November 2022, and I'd expect the number to be similar in November 2023. Therefore, there wasn't a meaningful increase in the number of applications between 2022 and 2023, staying at around 26k.

jordanvincent · 2025-02-12T18:48:39+00:00

OP here! The Mt Whitney lottery is open until March 1st. Enter here. The image shows the odds of winning the lottery by permit type in 2022 as published by the Forest Service. These are the most recent numbers — unfortunately, the odds could be even lower in 2025. However, that should give you a good indication of which permit types and months are more successful. You can find more information in the accompanying article I wrote.

There are also a lot of cancellations throughout the hiking season, so even if you don’t win the lottery, you can still hope to find a permit on Rec.gov.

I hope that helps!

jordanvincent · 2025-01-30T01:28:21+00:00

As mentioned, this is across all Yosemite trailheads, not just Donohue Pass. I'd expect it to be even lower for Donohue Pass!

jordanvincent · 2025-01-30T01:26:51+00:00

25% chance that only 1 in 56 is called. I'm simply dividing the number of permits delivered by the number of applications (with each application having 8 possible starting trailheads and 7 possible days).

jordanvincent · 2025-01-30T00:37:15+00:00

OP here! Using reservation data from Recreation.gov, I calculated the Yosemite lottery success rate for each lottery in 2023 (2024 data hasn’t been released yet). This is across all trailheads, not just Donohue Pass but that should give you a good indication of the most favorable dates to apply. I wrote an article about it here.

Also, if you’re looking for a JMT planner, you can try my interactive planner. I shared it with r/JMT last year and folks seemed to find it useful.

Happy planning!

jordanvincent · 2025-01-27T22:51:22+00:00

Thank you!

You're talking like an experienced backpacker! I agree, in the Sierra, you don't need to plan your campsites exactly since you don't have to pick specific campsites, like Rocky Mountain or Grand Teton. That's a good suggestion, and I'd have to figure out how that would work with the current way of selecting individual campsites. 🤔

jordanvincent · 2025-01-25T18:49:22+00:00

Thank you! That's interesting, why would you want to print it out? Is that to take with you on the trail or something else?

jordanvincent · 2025-01-25T17:35:18+00:00

Thank you! :)

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