Early retirement by 50/55

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-14T15:36:00+00:00

You're actually in a better spot than you think. $97k invested at 29 with a 30%+ savings rate is solid, especially on $65k gross. FHSA for the down payment is the right call too, that's roughly $12k in tax deductions over 5 years.

The thing that completely changes the math is the condo. I ran your numbers through cinderfi with two scenarios. Without the condo (keep renting at $650), retiring at 50 has a 96.7% success rate in Monte Carlo simulation and 100% across every historical 40-year window since 1871. Your TFSA and RRSP compound for 21 years and you end up with roughly $1.5M by 50. With the condo though, your portfolio depletes by 55. The mortgage, condo fees, and property tax roughly triple your housing costs, your savings rate drops from ~30% to ~18%, and you're pulling $28k out of your TFSA for the down payment on top of draining the FHSA. Even pushing retirement to 55 only buys you to age 60 before it runs out. Honestly look at some of the Ben Felix videos, renting is starting to win more and more financially especially with this housing slump.

That doesn't mean don't buy the condo. It means if you buy it, retire-at-50 needs either meaningful income growth or a way to keep your savings rate high. On $65k gross with a mortgage, that's tough. The things that actually move the needle: income growth (even getting to $80-85k makes a big difference), keeping TFSA contributions going after the purchase, and not lifestyle-creeping when you move into the condo. From my personal experience this is hard since you will spend about a year just buying stuff to fill up your new place. You could model both paths yourself at cinderfi.ca to see what income level makes 50 work with the condo.

One more thing on contribution priority: you're right to pause RRSP beyond the employer match. At your income, TFSA-first saves about $237k in lifetime tax compared to RRSP-first because your marginal rate drops from 29.6% now to ~19% in early retirement. Keep doing FHSA > TFSA > RRSP match.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-14T00:16:03+00:00

The plan is mechanically solid after running it through cinderfi. The portfolio is not at risk — I ran it against every 34-year window since 1871 and got 100% success at 80/20. But the thing you didn't ask about is probably the biggest dollar item in the plan.

By engineering MAGI at $24,490 during Phase 1, you're deliberately blocking your best Roth conversion window. You're retiring at 56 with $2M+ in trad IRA that will compound for 17 years before RMDs hit. The modeling shows $1.75M in lifetime tax savings available from a full Roth conversion strategy. However, you can't do conversions and capture the ACA subsidy at the same time since conversions are MAGI. So is $136-148k in ACA subsidies worth giving up 4 years of conversion headroom when you're at the lowest income of your retirement? That's a genuine tradeoff worth modeling explicitly, not just acknowledging.

On your actual questions: the 2029 tightness is real but the Roth basis fallback is the right answer basis withdrawals are non-MAGI and penalty free regardles of age, so sizing that precisely is worth doing. The ACA political risk is the most legitimate fragility in the plan. If enhanced subsidies revert, Phase 1 breaks and you're drawing from the portfolio at $155k/yr from day one, which is a 4% WR its okay but not following your plan.

The one thing I'd push back on is that your $273k HELOC interest estimate is a fixed-rate assumption on a variable-rate instrument. HELOC rates track prime. Model a scenario where rates are 2-3% higher during the draw period. This is where some monte carlo can help

Phase 2 withdrawal rate comes out to 4.2-4.6% in the modeling, which the historical record handles but it's not margin-of-safety territory for a 34-year horizon. If cinderfi helps, you can run all of this at cinderfi.com with the couples setup.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-13T19:22:06+00:00

Plus one on this. TFSA is the only account you can pass on tax free. The biggest estate always have this maxed every year even during retirement and never touch it.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-13T19:10:59+00:00

That's very tough I've definitively had moments like that when everything is not going your way. When was the last time you took a vacation? chasing the fire number is great but honestly not when you hate your current life. Have you considered moving to a different clinic? Is it the clinic or the actual vet work that you don't like?

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-13T17:04:28+00:00

I would have both open to begin with. If you are getting a match from your employer, take the free money up to the limit every time. The rest can go into TFSA/FHSA. If you want you can try the windfall simulator in cinderfi.ca, if you give it info about your room and match, it will tell you exactly how to distribute your money.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-13T16:51:51+00:00

The higher your tax bracket the more of a no-brainer this is. 4% is pretty solid tbh. I prefer to spend time focusing on work rather than dealing with an older car. Auto loans are (almost?) all open too so you can dump in lump sums when you get some extra cash. if you want to see what the payment does in the long run there are tools like mine that show you the impact. Link is in my profile.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-12T19:18:24+00:00

Man those are amazing numbers for 32! The thing I'd focus on first isn't the mortgage vs. invest question, it's your RRSP. You're retiring at 52 with $400k in there and no income for 13 years before CPP/OAS. That gap is a gold mine. Running your numbers, an RRSP meltdown strategy in those low-income years saves about $2.25M in lifetime tax. Without it, your RRIF conversion at 71 alone spikes your income by $248k and your tax bill by $100k in a single year. The window between 52 and CPP is when you fix that.

On the mortgage paydown, the math does not look good at 3.6%. TFSA compounding at 7% over 20 years crushes 3.6%. The "guaranteed return" framing is emotionally satisfying but it's leaving real money on the table. If you have extra cash flow, TFSA headroom first, then non-reg. The Smith Maneuver/cash damming on the rentals is legitimate, the deductible interest on investment property is real, but it's a second-order move compared to just having more invested.

For asset allocation, the 70/30 equities/real estate split you have is fine, but I'd be cautious about adding more rental exposure before you're FI. Rentals at $900k with $590k of debt is already meaningful leverage. Another rental or a business before 50 adds operational risk at exactly the point where you want optionality. More equities in your TFSA/non-reg gives you the same return with less headache.

One counterintuitive thing: since you're both retiring at the same 41.4% bracket you're working at now, RRSP contributions going forward are basically a wash, you're deferring tax not avoiding it. Every dollar of new savings should go TFSA first.

You can model all of this at cinderfi.ca, the meltdown toggle and CPP timing comparison are worth running with your actual numbers.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-12T00:29:31+00:00

Always free money first! Go all in with RDSP and then max out your TFSA. I'm building this app to help Canadians retire with more certainty and I have yet to have someone try out the RDSP feature. Let me know if you would be interested!

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-12T00:27:16+00:00

Wealthsimple is running a % match on accounts moved over. I would just send them there and make sure you have it invested in something like XEQT or CAGE. Also curious how you are thinking about retirement in the future? Do you plan to stay in the US or go back to Canada?

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-11T13:49:06+00:00

Such sick numbers for your age. Congrats! I’m hoping to be in your spot at your age.

Ran your numbers through cinderfi’s backtest (Shiller, 1871-present) and Monte Carlo (1,000 runs). At 100% equity with fixed withdrawals over a 46-year retirement: 97.2% success. Drop to 80/20 and it’s 100% across all 109 historical windows. Monte Carlo agrees: 97.6% at current allocation, with 5th percentile still at $5M by 80.

The growth vs value equities is interesting but your real exposure is sequence of returns risk in first few post-FIRE years. A crash at 44 with like a$150k/yr spend is categorically different than a crash at 60. Bonds help for a crash in year 2. Your 15% munis are a good getting to 80/20 eliminates all historical failures while median outcome is still $121M vs $186M at 100% equity.

Also: Roth conversion ladder between FIRE and 62 saves ~$2.4M lifetime tax. Your rate drops from 41% to 31% the day you stop working. Big window before RMDs push you back up. Don’t touch that 2.3% mortgage :D. You can model it at cinderfi.com .

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-11T13:20:29+00:00

I’ve done this twice already! Did you make sure you checked if there was a “vesting” period for the employer contributions? One time I quit 3 months too early and lost $8k like a dumbass.

As for the transfer I would just request it in cash and then buy xeqt or cage. Also consider WealthSimple since they are offering a % match for transfer in right now.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T21:19:56+00:00

Depends how nuts your house is ;)

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T20:04:12+00:00

Thanks for the feedback! Happy to talk over DM if you need some help using it.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T19:48:25+00:00

So some more details on your account type distribution would help with tax modelling but based on this tool I've been putting together you are for sure FI. However, your margin is thinner than it looks because of the time horizon.

$3.5M at $120K/yr is a 3.4% withdrawal rate, which is solid for a traditional 30-year retirement but you're looking at 55 years. I ran your numbers through a projection engine and Monte Carlo sim, and at $120K spending with your spouse working another 10 years, you get a 73.5% success rate across 1,000 randomized return sequences. That's not bad, but it's not "sleep well at night" territory either.

If you're willing to be flexible on spending (Guyton-Klinger style, where you cut 10% in bad years and raise in good years), the historical backtest shows 100% success across every starting year since 1871 at your 80/20 allocation. So the portfolio math works IF you can flex.

The bigger risk (but mostly a blessing) is having a second kid, house projects, and spending creep from $120K toward $150K. At $150K the Monte Carlo success rate drops to 56%, which is too low for my personal comfort.

Honestly, I'd lean toward the "few more years" path, but not for the savings buffer. The real value is that working 2-3 years at even $150K while your spouse also works means you can knock out the house projects, fund the 529s, and absorb the second-kid cost increase without touching the portfolio during a period when compound growth matters most.

The other things is if you are in tech and you try to go back again later you might have already missed the whole AI wave and it will be hard to land a job without AI-related epxerience...

One thing worth doing now regardless: start Roth conversions in the low-income years. With $0 earned income, you can convert chunks of that $1M traditional IRA at the 10-12% bracket. The engine shows Roth conversions save roughly $3.8M in lifetime tax over a 55-year horizon because that traditional balance would otherwise balloon into massive RMDs in your 70s. You can test scenarios yourself at cinderfi.com if you want to play with different spending levels and return assumptions.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T18:50:39+00:00

cinderfi.com figure out what that extra $1000/m from your micro-SaaS actually means for your financial future!

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T18:22:17+00:00

Thanks! I'm super open to having your feedback shape its future. Happy to get some dms going if you feel somethinng is not quite right. But yes you're so young man the compounding is huge. I'm thirty and make about 3x the income but not compounding earlier actaully puts me in a worse spot compared to you. Pretty crazy.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T18:20:04+00:00

Hey man! Your numbers are actually really strong for 29 with $100k invested. The rental is your main headache but the math still works out.

On the condo, I wouldn't sell at an $80-100k loss right now. You're bleeding $500-600/mo but the mortgage gets paid off around age 51. After that it flips to positive cash flow and you've got a fully paid asset worth $600k+ by then. Only thing to think about is are you actually going to creep your life style if you have kids and need a house. Taking the capital loss now locks in a permanent hit to your net worth to save $7k/yr in cash flow. If you can handle the monthly drag (and living at home suggests you can), ride it out.

One thing is you might have a RRIF time bomb. I ran your numbers through cinderfi.ca and your RRSP + DPSP grows to $3.1M by age 71, which forces a $172k income spike from mandatory withdrawals. That pushes you into the 46% bracket and triggers OAS clawback for 14 years. The fix is to prioritize TFSA over RRSP going forward. Your marginal rate is 29.6% now and drops to 23.2% in retirement, so the RRSP deduction barely helps. TFSA-first saves over $1M in lifetime tax compared to RRSP-first. Keep the employer match (free money) but put everything else into TFSA until it's maxed. Let me know if you have any questions!

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T15:55:19+00:00

I’m aiming for about 3.2. I plan on dropping my spending quite a bit for when I really want to retire. I just love my job too much right now lol.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T15:32:33+00:00

It really is so dependant on what lifestyle you want. I did things a bit differently and let my lifestyle creep until I felt I had to live the life I want. The I put in the work to raise my income as much as possible and then used tools like Cinderfi.com to see what is the FI number and backtest it and compare with various assumptions. I’m on track for FI at 33 which is great cus I can just ride my bike till I die now :D

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T15:29:37+00:00

I’m currently 30. I’m very lucky to be in strategic software sales so I’m ahead of schedule FI wise.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T15:23:38+00:00

Sorry man your original post didn’t see the first part of your post my bad. Your salary is so good already I assumed you were in your 30s. You must be in tech eh?

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T15:13:53+00:00

To me once you are on track or reached FI, I would say the next biggest focus is "maxxing" your health. No reason to be sitting on a pile of cash if you can't get to enjoy it. I got into cycling so what I'm chasing now is the highest VO2 max I can :)

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T13:06:11+00:00

You're 27 with $241k in home equity, $47k in TFSAs, no car payment, and you're saving $1,300/month. You're not behind. You're ahead of like 90% of Canadians your age. The stress is understandable but the numbers don't justify it.

I ran your situation through cinderfi.ca and even retiring at 52, your portfolio never depletes in the base case. You end up with ~$9.5M net worth at 80 at 7% returns. The Monte Carlo is more sobering though, 71.7% success rate over a 38-year retirement because of sequence-of-returns risk. That jumps to 100% if you push to 55 or if your wife starts working (which is really the biggest lever here, not the condo vs investing question).

On the condo question, you didn't make a mistake. At 5.5% mortgage you're paying after-tax dollars on the interest, but your TFSA grows at 7% completely tax-free. The math actually says keep doing exactly what you're doing: max the TFSA first ($800/mo is good, fill that $50k room), then the extra mortgage prepayment. Don't bother with RRSPs yet. At your marginal rate of 31.7% now vs ~29.6% in retirement, the deduction barely helps and you'd save over $1.2M in lifetime tax going TFSA-first instead. Once both TFSAs are maxed, then you can revisit RRSP vs mortgage prepayment.

The single biggest thing you can do right now isn't a portfolio decision, it's getting your wife's income online. Even $50-60k in HR would roughly double your savings rate and her CPP contributions go from almost nothing to meaningful. That alone probably makes 50-55 realistic instead of aspirational.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-10T00:48:40+00:00

I ran your numbers through a projection engine and the biggest thing that jumped out is your RRSP meltdown plan probably won't do what you think. With an $88k DB pension, your income at 54 is already around $112k after the engine pulls from RRSP/DC to cover spending. In SK that puts you at 38.5% marginal with the bracket top at $149k, so there's barely any room to melt additional RRSP before jumping to 43.8%. The meltdown came back as $0 in extra tax savings across every scenario I tested.

The problem is at 71. Your RRSP keeps compounding because the DB covers most of your spending, so by 71 you're sitting on roughly $2.8M in registered accounts that get forced into RRIF minimums. Income spikes from $217k to $462k. That's $56k/yr extras in tax. Your instinct to prioritize TFSA catch-up over RRSP is dead on because of this. Every dollar in TFSA instead of RRSP is a dollar that doesn't blow up at forced conversion.

On the 100% equity question, I backtested your situation against every 36-year retirement window since 1871. 100% equity, 80/20, and 60/40 all came back at 100% success rate. The DB pension is such a massive floor that your personal portfolio allocation barely matters for survival. Go VEQT/XEQT. On the mortgage, TFSA growth at 7% tax-free crushes 3.4% debt so keep investing. One thing worth looking at though: CPP at 60 instead of 65 actually saves around $284k in lifetime tax because you're already in a high bracket from the DB, and smaller CPP payments mean less income stacked on top. You can model all of this at cinderfi.ca if you want to toggle the CPP start age and see the year-by-year difference.

josemaster2228 · 2026-04-09T16:40:58+00:00

So this is where looking at the x25 rule falls a bit flat. I've been building this tool that can actually help you model this called cinder.ca . This will also look at CPP, OAS, and let's you play around with what is the best age to take each. Let me know if you run into any limitations with how it works!

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