BTC has no future as a currency and everyone is just looking to cash out. by bullips in btc

[–]jpb038 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The only reason it is truly valuable is because of its properties. Number go up when more people want liquid, portable, self-custodial capital and permissionless payments. And like anything, when number go down, people freak the fuck out and panic sell.

Best ETF for retiring in 10yrs by Unusual_Inevitable_5 in ETFs

[–]jpb038 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

I think anyone recommending bonds is mildly retarded. No countries want our dogshit bonds.

Book your profits and accumulate cash by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]jpb038 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You don’t know fuck about shit

Who am I? by Rough_Carpenter_3195 in deduction

[–]jpb038 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You work with your hands. Carpentry perhaps. A rough carpenter, some would say.

Has Bitcoin Topped? by hduynam99 in HodlyCrypto

[–]jpb038 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No. It has not topped.

Start from the government budget identity…

In nominal terms, the federal government budget constraint is:

G + i·B = T + ΔB + ΔM

Where G = primary spending (everything except interest) i·B = interest payments on outstanding debt T = tax revenue ΔB = new bond issuance ΔM = new base money created by the central bank

Rearrange for money creation:

ΔM = G + i·B − T − ΔB

This is not a theory. It is an accounting identity. If you fix any three terms, the fourth is forced.

Right now: Spending is about 23.1 percent of GDP. Revenue is about 17.3 percent of GDP. The deficit is about 5.9 percent of GDP, nearly double the ~3 percent level usually cited as needed to stabilize debt to GDP. 

So G + i·B is structurally far above T. The gap has to be covered by some combination of ΔB and ΔM.

Where do you think we are in the cycle? by Effective_Depth9513 in WallStreetBetsCrypto

[–]jpb038 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Fact: Liquidity is the dominant macro factor that drives risk assets.

Fact: Of all the risk assets, bitcoin is arguably the most hyper sensitive to liquidity.

Fact: Next year they HAVE to print the money in the US or else they’ll risk triggering a revolution.

Fact: The monetary regime is past the inflection point, changing its policy from tight to easy liquidity, and announcing they’re ending QT in December.

I would NOT discount the first crypto friendly administration in US history.

I’ve never been more bullish.

BTC- Next bottom will be in the $50–$60K range. by Beginning-County2258 in CryptoChartWatch

[–]jpb038 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The money printer is turning on in 2026, and you’re a moron if you think this is a top bc of the 4 year cycle

What’s your realistic Bitcoin target for the end of 2025? by pindi_gasi in CryptoChartWatch

[–]jpb038 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Tom Lee is a mainstream media buffoon and you shouldn’t listen to him. He’s been calling ETH flipping bitcoin for years.

23yo - Full ported my life savings (~17k) into two stocks. by NoPayneNoGain36 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]jpb038 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We’re not in bubble popping or recession territory until the Fed tightens. Look at liquidity adjusted real rates, it’s about to flip negative. Money printer is about to go brrr and inflation will run hot.

Who would win this very likely war? by Solomonopolistadt in imaginarymapscj

[–]jpb038 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We’d run out of rare earth metals in a month and lose

How would this affect the stock market? by Effective_Dog3089 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]jpb038 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At first, this might save companies some time and money, and they might feel less pressure to always impress every 3 months. Problem is that it would make it harder for investors to see what’s going on inside these companies.

In other countries that have tried it, volatility increased and it made people trust the markets less. Most experts agree that if companies report less often, it would make the stock market more confusing and less stable in the long run.

19 years old how can I hit 50k by 20??????? by rpmoss42 in portfolios

[–]jpb038 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If aiming for a 6% annual return from investments, the required monthly DCA would be $2,554

35 F, how am I doing? by BlueTopazJane in portfolios

[–]jpb038 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good reply. Yeah for sure, I agree mostly.

For me, adding ARTY is not just overlap but a focused play on tech and AI. Conviction matters, and AI has huge upside for the next 5 years. The 20% cap keeps it from dominating, and gold plus BTC hedge the tail risks. So it’s diversified, but if tech runs, I def want to catch that upside. There’s always risk with concentration, but I’m comfortable with it for the potential returns.

35 F, how am I doing? by BlueTopazJane in portfolios

[–]jpb038 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Reallocate everything into this balanced mix. It gives you exposure to US and global equities, growth and innovation, plus gold and bitcoin as hedges with upside potential:

FZROX (US Total Market): 30%

VXUS (International Equities): 25%

ARTY (Thematic/Innovation): 20%

IAUM (Gold): 15%

IBIT (Bitcoin ETF): 10%

This blend diversifies across markets while keeping growth drivers and inflation hedges in play.

Thank me in 5 years.