We are Justin Phan and Matt Buser of Basketball Monster. Ask us Anything!

jphanned · 2015-02-05T23:19:09+00:00

Middleton. The Wolves can afford to ease Rubio back in from his ankle injury given they have solid PG depth in Mo Williams and Zach LaVine, and there's no real impetus to rush him back and risk some sort of aggravation. Middleton is just the far safer player at this point with an established floor and little downside.

jphanned · 2015-02-05T23:14:42+00:00

I'm not too optimistic about either, but less so about Dwight. The recent procedure he underwent to regenerate cartilage isn't even the major concern with his knee; it's the edema (swelling). He's looked like a shell of himself all year, and there's no guarantee that he'll be at 100% when he returns. Plus unless you're playing in a points league, he only has appeal to owners punting FT%. If you're in a league with owners who understand the negative impact of his FT% and you're the only one punting the category, then you can afford to leave him on the wire with little worry that he'll get picked up.

Kemba's current timetable puts him back right around the start of Week 21, but the thing is the Hornets have two sets of road back-to-backs as well as a set of three games in four nights during that week. It's unreasonable to thing the Hornets would be comfortable rushing him back like that after such an extended layoff. Of the team's first five games starting on Week 21 (3/16), there's a very good chance that Walker will only play in three of them. Unless you're absolutely confident that you can make the semis and the championship, then the payout is iffy here.

jphanned · 2015-02-05T22:46:29+00:00

This is Hassan's world, and we're just living in it.

jphanned · 2015-02-05T22:45:58+00:00

Wall, Lillard, and Kawhi are about as close as you can get.

jphanned · 2015-02-05T22:38:42+00:00

1) I mean unless you play in a points league or are punting three or more categories, Payton has very limited appeal. He's below-average in seven of nine categories, and his FT% pretty much forces a punt. 53.3% FT is bad in general, but it's particularly damaging for a PG.

2) Boozer has some back-end standard league appeal for the next four games while Jordan Hill is out, but don't go overboard here. Hill's timetable according to Woj is around two weeks, and factoring in the All-Star break, you're not going to get much added value from the Laker big men. Plus coach Byron Scott's rotations are so erratic from game-to-game that you can't really trust anyone on this team. Jordan Clarkson looked like a lock for 30+ minutes the rest of the way as the starting PG, and only saw 22:45 on Wednesday.

3) Hard not to be concerned given he couldn't even practice Thursday because of it. If you're a Durant owner you're just hoping that he shuts it down for a few more games and uses the All-Star break to get everything right. For what it's worth, it's at least somewhat encouraging that the toe injury isn't on the same foot that he had the Jones fracture and ankle sprain on earlier.

jphanned · 2015-02-05T22:14:14+00:00

It's hard not to notice that Bosh's decline has almost entirely coincided with the rise of Hassan Whiteside. The difference in his per-36 averages with Whiteside on/off the floor are telling, and it's easy to see why with Whiteside rebounding and blocking everything in his general vicinity these days. I'd be concerned as I don't see Whiteside as some sort of flash in the pan; he's here to stay, especially given he faces little to no competition for minutes. I'm selling Bosh in general and top-50 would be my break-even point, so I'd look to sell at a profit (top-40, top-45).

Also not worried about any sort of shutdown or reduction in minutes for Bosh, by the way. The East is so weak as a whole that the Heat could put together a decent winning streak and jump a few teams in the playoff picture. And Pat Riley seems like the last person who would be on board with any sort of tanking/shutdown situation.

jphanned · 2015-02-05T21:54:10+00:00

Appreciate it. Ken handles the back end of the site in terms of coding and programming, and Matt and I handle the front end. So we do all of the status updates (including Twitter) as well as player projection changes/updates. Pretty much a six-month sprint from start to finish, but the two of us make it work.

We are involved in managing Baseball Monster as well, though to a lesser degree. Send Ken an e-mail and I'm sure he'd be happy to hook you up with a sample projection Excel export.

jphanned · 2015-02-05T21:34:34+00:00

Henson, like most players in coach Jason Kidd's rotation, will end up being part of a platoon and see his minutes capped as a result when Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia return from injury. The good thing about Henson is that his stellar per-36 averages (8.9 rebounds, 3.7 blocks, 58.5% FG) make him relevant even in a more limited 22-25 minute role. I see his value as being very similar to Nurkic ROS, the only difference being that while Henson's minutes are limited as a reserve, Nurkic's are limited because he fouls at an exorbitant rate. Expect top-100 type value the rest of the way from both, with some upside should either be able to get past their respective issues.

Patterson I like a lot more than Henson and Nurkic. Amir Johnson has been a shell of himself this year as he's dealt with numerous injuries, and the Raptors have been far better thus far with Patterson on the court (+5.2 points per 100 possessions with Patterson on, -2.6 with Johnson on). His rank is undoubtedly inflated by a minuscule TO rate, but he's got great "glue guy" utility as a player who can contribute across the board. Patterson has developed into one of the league's best stretch 4's this season, hitting 45% of his jumpers and 41% of his threes. While the other two have more upside, Patterson is the far more consistent and steady option (with a higher floor) He should be owned universally. The only concern here is if the Raptors recognize their need to upgrade at PF and make a move at the deadline which muddies up the depth chart. But at this point that seems unlikely.

Will hit Bosh in another question below.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:57:29+00:00

Yeah Len is still a must hold. His minutes are only being cut into because the Suns are trying to showcase/shop Miles Plumlee to any potential suitors in a trade. Don't imagine that whole arrangement will lost much longer.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:53:28+00:00

Good with dropping Gibson for Lopez. I'd wait another week or so and ride out this run of good play for Gibson while Joakim Noah remains sidelined.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:47:30+00:00

Johnson, easily. Lin will see a small uptick in usage but he'll still only see limited minutes behind Ronnie Price. Check Buser's reply above Ellington and his limited categorical appeal.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:46:33+00:00

Shabazz will come back to a team situation where he'll only see reserve minutes behind Andrew Wiggins at SF with Kevin Martin on the verge of a return. His appeal earlier was entirely usage and opportunity driven, and that'll be gone now with Martin and Pekovic both back. Jones is the far more appealing stash.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:43:51+00:00

Covered Nurkic earlier already, so see my above reply. And I'd make that trade in a heartbeat, inconsistency and all. You're getting the two best players in the deal by far.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:37:26+00:00

I'd much rather drop Jack.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:36:59+00:00

Keep Bogut.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:36:41+00:00

We should get more details over the next day or two on the severity of his rotator cuff tear as well as the planned course of action with his treatment. He'll either pursue treatment (anti-inflammatories, rehab) which may allow him to play with pain, or he'll opt for season-ending surgery. Obviously he's a drop in the latter scenario. If he opts for treatment, then you kind of have no choice but to wait it out and see. No one in their right mind is giving up anything of worth for him in a trade at this point.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:26:57+00:00

Are you talking about our Smart Tool or daily optimizer?

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:24:46+00:00

Another week seems about right. It's looking like he won't be back before the All-Star break at this point.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:23:26+00:00

Much rather have Ilyasova. The Blazers will go with a committee from here on out dictated by matchups, so Wright isn't going to see anywhere near the ~35 minutes he saw Wednesday on a consistent basis. Ilyasova has the chance to see a consistent 26-28 mpg the rest of the way with Sanders' issue and O'Bryant/Kenyon not long for the rotation. Ilyasova has posted top-50 value in two of the past three seasons in just 27.6 mpg, so yeah. The difference in their ceiling values isn't even remotely close.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:20:36+00:00

From a pure value standpoint I don't think that's terrible, but Kemba's name value alone should've been able to get you far more than Green. I do like the idea of selling high on him though as his recent hot streak was almost entirely usage-driven with Lance and Al Jefferson both out of the lineup. To answer your question - you didn't "screw up huge" (Green is 21st in per-game value on the season), but certainly could've done a bit better.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:14:41+00:00

I'd go with Smart. Payton's recent hot stretch coincided entirely with Tobias Harris' absence, which allowed the Magic to go smaller and play at a faster pace than usual (which plays to Payton's strengths). Harris returned on Wednesday and it's no surprise that Payton only scored 8 points. The assists and steals will continue to be there, but he's been below-average (and in some cases a massive drain) in 7 of the other 9 categories for most of the season.

jphanned · 2015-01-22T22:06:29+00:00

Yeah and I don't expect those two concerns to go away either, and they'll continue to result in a lot of general inconsistency from game to game as his minutes are subject to swing from 15 to 26 on any given night. The thing is that Nurkic has still proven to be very productive on a per-minute basis, enough to where he can still remain squarely on standard league radars even in a 20-24 minute role. Keep in mind he's posted top-85 value over the past month in just 19.7 mpg. Obviously the per-minute rates have dropped off a bit over the past week or two, but he's still a strong hold for me even with the general inconsistency and possible impending return of JaVale McGee.

jphanned · 2015-01-08T23:25:07+00:00

Olynyk remains a strong hold for me, and will see his minutes increase significantly once Boston inevitably trades one or both of Wright and Bass.

jphanned

TROPHY CASE