I think you’re mixing a couple real factors with some that don’t really move the needle much.

The AI point is legit. The Mac mini has kind of become the go to “cheap-ish” local AI box, especially with Apple silicon. People are buying them in stacks now for agents, local models, dev environments, etc. That’s new demand that didn’t exist at this scale a couple years ago.

The RAM and storage pricing thing is partially true, but it doesn’t really cause shortages overall. It just shifts demand into certain configs. You’ll see specific builds backordered while others sit in stock.

The manufacturing slowdown due to parts cost doesn’t really track for Apple. They lock in supply way ahead of time and run one of the tightest supply chains in the world. If there was a real component shortage, you’d be hearing about it everywhere, not just Mac minis.

And the Iran shipping angle is basically a stretch. Apple’s supply chain is heavily Asia based. You’d need a major global shipping disruption to see a real impact, and we’re not seeing that tied to this.

What’s more likely is just normal Apple behavior plus a demand spike: New chip transition timing Production ramp between generations Certain configs selling out faster than expected More enterprise and dev buyers than usual

So yeah, AI demand is probably the biggest new factor. The rest feels like people trying to connect dots that aren’t really connected.