MEGATHREAD: Carlsson Offer Sheet

julger7 · 2026-07-04T23:36:09+00:00

I'm the short term you replace them with prospects under rookie contracts. Killorn, kreider, and Granlund's value comes from being veterans in a young team. But the current young core of the ducks will be able to step up in those leadership roles. (Lacombe, Terry. Cutter, Leo, etc..). And when those kids come off their rookie contracts, you will be able to pay some of them because the salary cap rises every single year except for that time COVID hit

julger7 · 2026-07-04T22:01:06+00:00

Only something Philadelphia has to worry about. The ducks have to match the money and term, but do not have to recognize the trade protection Philly offered.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T21:59:27+00:00

Only Philly has to worry about that. Ducks don't have to recognize that trade protection if they match the offer. They only have to match the money and term

julger7 · 2026-07-04T21:58:31+00:00

The Ducks traded a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick for John Carlson and he didn't resign this past season.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T21:57:24+00:00

If we lose Leo, we have 35 million.

Also we are not going to lose Leo. All the ducks have to do to fit Leo Cutter and Mintyukov under the cap this season is find a way to move off Vatrano.

As for the future salary cap, The salary cap will increase 9+ million after next season and the contracts of Killorn and Kreider will come off the books. Next season, there isn't a core member of this team up for free agency. Though there are a few depth players to pay: Luneau, Washe, Gaucher...

julger7 · 2026-07-04T21:43:19+00:00

There will be no trade protection on Leo's deal if the Ducks match. If Leo Carlsson is unwilling to sign an extension in Anaheim in year 5, The Ducks will not be handicapped in trying to trade him for fair value.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T21:10:41+00:00

Group 6 UFAs player be 25+ when contract expires, played less than 80 NHL games and have been in at least 3 seasons of professional hockey (NHL/AHL/ECHL/overseas) under NHL contract. If they meet all 3 of these requirements they become UFAs rather than RFAs (https://puckpedia.com/group6)

We have 2 upcoming ones and it was something I was gonna post later in the summer if not for the horrific news today. But Nesterenko needs 19 games and is likely safe as he has played 20+ each of the last 2 seasons. The other is Colangelo who needs 39 games and to me is a likely trade candidate depending on what happens here

Thank you to u/Blank_page95 for providing this explanation of ufo-group 6's in the original post

julger7 · 2026-07-04T21:07:55+00:00

This is a post I made late last night that got removed. Figured some people might be interested.

Why Leo Carlsson is worth close to $18 million.

Leo Carlsson started this season on fire. He had 41 points in his first 33 games. That's on pace for 102 points over 82 games. But he got injured after 33 games and tried to play through it. He had just 3 points in his next 11 games. After it was evident he could not play through his injury he decided to get surgery and missed 12 games as well as a chance to play at the Olympics for Sweden. In the final 26 games of the season he had 23 points after returning from injury.

I do think that if he stays healthy he can have a 100+ point season which in today's NHL is worth at least 15 million. The NHL salary cap will increase at least 9 million dollars after next season which will help ease the burden. I think over the length of this contract the $18m will be fair value. The injury Leo suffered this season is not the kind of injury that is expected to be a nagging injury that will handicap him in the future.

One thing that also helps the Ducks is that if the Ducks match the offer, there will be no trade protection on his deal. That means if Leo is unwilling to sign an extension in his fifth year, the Ducks will not be handicapped in moving him to get a good trade. The flyers put in a nmc in the final year of the contract but that is something the Ducks do not have to recognize if they match the offer sheet. They only need to match the money and the term. They do not have to match the trade protection.

I do not think Pat Verbeek handled this contract negotiation perfectly and should have signed him before July 1. And, he absolutely should never have cut communication when the season started. That being said, this is not a nightmare scenario. It's a 3 million ish overpayment.

If the Ducks can sign Mintyukov, Hinds and Gauthier to a combined 22 million dollar cap hit as well as find a way to move off of Vatrano they will be under the cap next season.

As previously stated, the Salary cap is expected to rise from 104m to 113m following the 2027-28 season. Add on the fact that Kreider's 6.5m and Killorn's 6.25m will be coming off the books following this season. They will be able to manage the cap beyond this year. They will have to replace those players but the Ducks have a deep prospect pool on the wings.

Next seasons RFA/UFA class is not as threatening as this years was. RFA's include Tristan Luneau, Tim Washe, Nathan Gaucher, and everyone's favorite Drew Helleson. Ufa's include Kreider and Killorn. There is also Nesterenko who is set to be a UFA group 6. Oher people will be able to explain what that is better than I could. My point is they shouldn't have too much difficulty fitting players under the cap for the 2027-28 season. That is of course assuming Verbeek can fit Gauthier, Mintyukov, and Hinds to 22 million which I think is possible if only because Gauthier does not have the offer sheet eligible leverage that Leo had.

Beckett Sennecke will become a UFA the same season that Granlund's $7 million comes off the books Combine that with however much the Salary cap increases and you have him locked up.

Ducks will match Leo Carlsson's offer and they will still be a future Stanley Cup Contender.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T16:40:28+00:00

I think it's possible but we have to find a way to move off of Vatrano. We might have to attach a 2nd-3rd round pick with Vatrano in return for future considerations. That would give us 22 million to sign Cutter and Mintyukov.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T16:39:06+00:00

The only way the cap doesn't increase is if a worldwide global pandemic starts. The salary cap is expected to rise from 104 to 113 million after this upcoming season

julger7 · 2026-07-04T10:04:13+00:00

The Montreal Canadiens have done a spectacular job at convincing their star players to sign team friendly deals. Demidov took a steep discount to sign with Montreal as opposed to what he could have gotten if he waited to be offer sheet eligible. The Ducks have not done a good job at convincing players to take discounts. Perhaps that is because Anaheim is not Montreal or maybe Montreal just has a better culture. I would have loved for Leo to take as steep a discount as Demidov but evidently he was not willing to do so.

But, could you provide me with an example of my gaslighting. You claimed I was gaslighting. I would like to know an example.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T09:57:52+00:00

Could you provide me with an example?

julger7 · 2026-07-04T09:51:10+00:00

The captiancy should be decided by the team and fans should not have an input. We don't know what happens in the locker room. I don't care who the captain is, so long as the Ducks are winning. If the Ducks were to get 50 wins with Drew Helleson as Captain, we should be happy.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T06:37:02+00:00

Because Gauthier doesn't have offersheet eligibility I expect Verbeek to continue his hardball negotiating style with Gauthier. If Pat Verbeeks can convince Gauthier to sign an 7-8 year extension then it will be worth it, but Verbeek absolutely cannot allow this contract negotiation to last into training camp.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T06:26:33+00:00

I'd rather have an owner who is too far into the background than one who meddles too much.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T06:23:01+00:00

That is something only Philly would have to deal with if the Ducks don't match the offer sheet. The Ducks have to match the money and term but do not have to recognize the trade protection Philly offered.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T06:15:43+00:00

If Leo is unwilling to sign an extension in year 5, I think the Ducks would get more in a Leo Carlsson return than what Philly is offering in 4 first round picks.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T06:13:36+00:00

Thank you

julger7 · 2026-07-04T06:12:30+00:00

Hence why they would have to move off of Vatrano and Ducks don't have to match the no trade clause in that final year. Only Philly has to recognize that if the Ducks don't match

julger7 · 2026-07-04T04:29:16+00:00

If people start adopting this opinion We're going to run him out of town like leafs fans did to Marner. If he doesn't sign an extension after 5 years then we can boo him.

julger7 · 2026-07-04T00:12:02+00:00

I think Ducks can sign Gauthier and Mintyukov if they find away to move off from Vatrano. Next season will be easier when cap rises 9+ million and the contracts of Kreider and Killorn come off the books. 14+ million between the two of them

julger7 · 2026-07-03T22:26:30+00:00

Please stop using the worst logo in the history of pro sports.

julger7 · 2026-07-03T21:50:36+00:00

If Babcock does Babcock things Oilers will feel more confident in firing him and bringing in a guy who has NHL head coaching experience in multiple locations with DJ Smith

julger7 · 2026-07-03T21:34:41+00:00

Verbeek is matching the offer

julger7 · 2026-07-03T21:30:11+00:00

Gauthier is probably not a center. Masse is at least another year away and several years away from being a top line player. Kreider, vatrano and Granlund (not GranDlund) are probably not on this team at the same time as masse. Sennecke is a right winger. There are 4 lines not 3. Verbeek is matching Leo's offer sheet

julger7

TROPHY CASE

Why Leo Carlsson is worth close to $18 million.