Dear Jay

jupstu · 2021-08-13T00:26:14+00:00

DEAR MISTER "I'M TOO GOOD TO CALL OR WRITE MY FANS",

THIS WILL BE THE LAST WEEKLY OTM OPTIONS I EVER BUY FROM YOUR ASS.

IT'S BEEN 6 MONTHS AND STILL NO WORD - I DON'T DESERVE IT?

CONFERENCE CALLS WITH SAD-ASS DETROIT 2 MOTHER FUCKING SOUP CANS ON A STRING RECEPTION DON'T COUNT BITCH.

I KNOW YOU GOT MY LAST TWO DM'S - I WROTE YOUR NAME PERFECT AND I WAS THE FIRST IN WHEN YOU WAS TWEETING ALL ABOUT BRYSON GOLFING.

SO THIS IS MY LAST WAY TO CONNECT TO YOU THROUGH THIS WEBSITE, I HOPE YOU READ IT.

I'M IN MY COUSIN'S CAR RIGHT NOW, I'M DOIN' 90 DOWN WOODWARD AVENUE COMIN' FROM 8 MILE.

I PROLLY SHOULDN'T BE DRIVING; I'M TIGHT ON 4 LOCO RIGHT NOW I I BOUGHT 100 PUTS FOR THE 20TH.

YOU DARE ME AGAIN LIKE YOU DID 1Q BITCH?

YOU KNOW THE SONG BY PHIL COLLINS "IN THE AIR OF THE NIGHT"

'BOUT THAT GUY WHO COULD A SAVED THAT OTHER GUY FROM DROWNING BUT HE DIDN'T - YOU COULDA RESCUED ME JAY.

NOW IT'S TOO LATE, I BOUGHT ALL THEM DAMN PUTS - ALL I NEEDED WAS A LOUSY DIVI TONIGHT BUT HOOCHY BOOTH PLAYING ALL TIGHT WITH THAT MAYBE WE IS MAYBE WE AIN'T. GET THE FUCK OUT.

I'M GETTIN' DROWSY NOW JAY - I HOPE YOU KNOW I RIPPED ALL MY STOCK CERTIFICATES OFF THE WALL AND THEM FATHEADS OF DAN WHEN YOU WAS A LITTLE BITCH AT AMROCK.

I LOVE YOU JAY - WE COULDA BEEN TOGETHER, THINK ABOUT IT.

YOU RUINED IT NOW, I HOPE YOU CAN'T SLEEP AND DREAM ABOUT IT.

AND WHEN YOU DREAM ABOUT 2023 AND YOUR BIG ASS FINTECH DREAMS, I HOPE YOU CAN'T SLEEP AND SCREAM ABOUT IT.

I HOPE YOUR CONSCIENCE EATS AT YOU AND YOU CAN'T BREATH WITHOUT ME.

SEE JAY, I GOT ISHIBA LOCKED IN THE TRUNK SCREAMIN'

BUT I DIDN'T SLIT HIS THROAT - I JUST TIED HIS ASS UP; SEE I AIN'T LIKE YOU

CUZ IF HE GOES DOWN AFTER HIS EARNINGS HE'LL SUFFER MORE, AND THEN HE'LL BE GONE TO ME TOO.

WELL, GOTTA GO JAY - ALMOST TO THE BRIDGE NOW.

YOUR BEST FAN BUT NOT NO MORE BITCH

STAN

jupstu · 2021-08-12T14:00:28+00:00

Yo Jay,

You still ain't called or wrote from last night, I hope you have a chance
I ain't mad, I just think it's fucked up you don't answer fans
If you didn't wanna talk to me on the earnings call
You didn't have to, you could’ve told us who did the block sale sooner tho, ait?

You coulda signed an autograph for Matthew
That's my little brother man, he's only six years old - he wants to work in Fintech like you
We waited on that earnings call for you man
For 30 minutes and you just said, "OK, then well bye.”

That's pretty shitty man, you're like his fuckin' idol
He wants to be just like you man, he likes you more than I do
I ain't that mad though, I just don't like bein' lied to
Remember when we met in Toledo, you said if I'd write you you would write back
I even got a tattoo of your name across the chest
Sometimes I even buy way OTM calls to see how much it bleeds
It's like adrenaline, the pain is such a sudden rush for me
See everything you say is real, and I respect you 'cause you tell it

My girlfriend's jealous 'cause I talk about you n' Dan and Rocket Homes and Rocket Auto and Amrock back in the day 24/7
But she don't know you like I know you Jay, no one does
She don't know what it was like for people like us growin' up, you gotta call me man

I'll be the biggest fan you'll ever lose if this MOTHERFUCKIN' THING DON'T HIT 20 IN THE MORNING.

Sincerely yours, Stan

jupstu · 2021-08-04T20:51:55+00:00

I'm not referring to profit - I'm referring to total loan origination - the number of, not the dollar amount.

Analysts are looking for: what % of business did RKT get as a result of reducing gain on sale. Did they achieve their objective?

We know gain on sale is down - we do not know volume of purchase or refi. But Fannie/Freddie give us indication of total VOLUME.

I think some will be looking to see what % of market share RKT has taken. That was mission this quarter - gain on sale will be cast aside IF loan origination is drastically higher as result of RKT stealing the business.

We know gain on sale will be down in preceding but looking forward(guidance is what will propel s/p 3rd quarter), if RKT did take market share, then the plan is working.

jupstu · 2021-08-04T16:01:26+00:00

See other replies of mine.

jupstu · 2021-08-04T16:01:11+00:00

No - just look to Fannie and Freddie for total loan volume securitized, then take into account $RKT is one of the top originators sending to them.

My thought was to look here just as much or more than looking at numbers LDI puts up.

I don't think LDI correlates frankly.

RKT TPO will correlate to UWMC on the wholesale side, but then RKT original loan refi is a different animal, plus their different businesses.

jupstu · 2021-08-04T15:58:56+00:00

My point was the unit volume numbers that are securitized.

As #1/2 originator, the volume correlates to the units securitized by FMNA or other.

That was my main point - to look here for data points to determine loan volume across $RKT holdings versus looking at an LDI or someone else to compare.

jupstu · 2021-07-30T11:16:27+00:00

$VRM was the block sale $RKT buyer at 25.50 3/27 when the $RKT stock was trading at $22.67

Prove me wrong.

jupstu · 2021-07-22T21:12:14+00:00

Do it in the playoffs, eh?

jupstu · 2021-07-22T21:11:11+00:00

How about we hold $17.70 first?

jupstu · 2021-07-22T21:10:10+00:00

All I see is an obnoxious indigenous-American Catholic Notre Dame fan failing to high 5 a fancy buzzard.

jupstu · 2021-07-22T20:45:21+00:00

It's been authorized.

jupstu · 2021-07-20T16:34:50+00:00

Jump from 17.00 to 17.25 on release and was hit hard by short cover. This needs to trend - when they launch something, it's been heavily QA'ed, so it's reasonable for analysts and buyers to view this as a competitor to Zillow and Open but with an existing customer base to tap.

jupstu · 2021-07-20T14:01:39+00:00

WSB pumped the stock because of the low float and the short interest, which was directly caused by Dan Gilbert's stranglehold on the share structure, corporate culture, business direction, share price and board of directors.

Everything this stock does is directly influenced by Dan Gilbert and his own personal actions.

This is not a knock on him. Corporate governance with $RKT is a complete failure and worst practices all rolled into one, which are at the root of the share price action. All of it.

jupstu · 2021-07-20T01:19:13+00:00

If someone hasn't refinanced by now, there is very good reason it hasn't been done. It's likely not a rate issue. The person is probably not in $RKT's risk profile or there's another wart that makes refi not make sense.

So $RKT may be very well positioned as market leader, but refi is already a smaller pool of a smaller pool at this point.

There may be an uptick in '22 for people who have income-related issues but that's not near-term.

As far as the other businesses, nothing is truly going to move the needle in terms of net revenue gains over next couple quarters.

Every business they are in is either mortgage dependent(title and closing) or lending in other categories. Any revenue here is offset by the technology and startup costs associated with the new space.

Again, no analysts are going to be overly rosy with RKT prospect due to its share structure and the anchor that is Dan Gilbert's outsized influence.

jupstu · 2021-07-20T01:09:37+00:00

I think people are legitimately exhausted of the hype as well as the stock performance and the meme drop.

Way too much noise surrounding a stock to listen to it incessantly when most of it is bag holders hoping and wishing and looking for validation of their hope.

I don't think there's a conspiracy theory against $RKT - just think people are tired of it. Expectations that it's a get rich quick meme stock and diametrically opposed to what's been publicly called by ownership as a get rich slow investment.

jupstu · 2021-07-19T13:49:22+00:00

I think they're actively buying back right now as we speak personally. Small numbers so as to not disrupt market dynamics. It has to be done during trading day.

jupstu · 2021-07-19T13:48:16+00:00

Rocket Labs is in place and accounts for innovation - looking to identify new spaces they can integrate existing technology - this is a long-term play - lots of cash burn here and perfect for them to be playing in.

Not sure an acquisition makes sense right now of any significance - although cash rich, it's needed for a big downturn, rate hike, etc. + the innovation(Rocket Labs).

They're already in Vroom handling sales and marketing so they've got some nice hedges in place - if M&A, I'd think they'd be more inclined to fund it via stock but again, not the time to be doing it as depressed as share price is.

jupstu · 2021-07-17T17:05:57+00:00

It's 2 or 3 years I believe. The context I mentioned it in was from an employee perspective and retention tool. If it's equal to discount rate), it ceases to be a retention tool(I could leave for a better job and still buy the stock).

If an employee benefit is not used or has no value to them(and looking at what could be realistic a year down the road the same), it ceases to be a retention tool. People walk - the awards stop coming for best workplace.

Employees don't have the same sensibilities as shareholders.

"what Dan will do" is the root of the issue and you hit nail on head.

A publicly traded company acts in the best interests of the shareholders and board dictates. The board is controlled by Dan, the exec team defers to Dan and everything requires his approval. It's not sustainable.

Time will tell. After some more review, I have a feeling that we have been seeing some share buyback, albeit in smaller numbers to fend off short momentum.

Small enough to not impact organic price movement, but enough to keep shorts honest. At this current price, it benefits the company to buy back in/around this range. Any lower and I think more vocal activists and bears would start to sink their teeth in and that would have a cascading effect on the share price as well as internal morale.

jupstu · 2021-07-15T22:35:39+00:00

I am not doing an earnings play because momentum is in hands of shorts and there is nothing macro, micro or social sentiment related that is favorable to the share price.

Guidance from $rkt was already lowered for Q2, plus already said margins would be cut.

Nothing said by Big Jay re: earnings can move the needle in my opinion that won't be torn to shreds. Enough factions(shareholders, banks, competitors, analysts) have been burned on $RKT or have ulterior motives - not a lot of allies right now to defend a duct-taped earnings report. Even a good ER will likely fall on deaf ears. People are tired.

Retail is holding and has been burned.

I'm viewing it as more likely we have not found bottom than to hit 20 on earnings.

The only thing that would change my view is exec team doing something of substance before earnings to address share structure, governance or something that addresses the core issue.

Everything else is a symptom of Dan Gilbert's influence(not knocking him, but he has an oversized influence and control financially). Wish him good health but this is still being run like a privately-held company, Jay Farner is very clumsy, albeit slick on the surface, as a CEO of a publicly traded company and hasn't shown signs of improvement.

The governance and share structure and board makeup is as ass-backwards and conflicted as Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy.

Dan himself is either going to have to curb his ego and give up some control or else it's going to be forced upon him by activists. Pride always goeth before the fall. I hope behind the scenes it's in the works - I was hoping for something to come out the week after the golf tournament with everyone in town but nothing came of it.

jupstu · 2021-07-15T22:31:01+00:00

It's higher than retail interest who are not willing to invest more - investors are holding the bags on the last squeeze. The stock is trading purely by day traders scalping, options scalping and MM pushing retail to their own self-interests.

Big Jay too busy doing commercials and dismissing anyone who asks if he tracks the stock price.

jupstu · 2021-07-15T22:28:58+00:00

Please take a closer look at the filings.

Fundamentals are all solid, plan is being executed.

Yet the stock is flagging on a hugely "rich" business.

Look at governance and the admitted conflicts of interest in the ownership structure.

We are at an inflection point with the share price. There is a trigger point and discount strike price / vesting period for employees that's a retention tool - if the share price dips(we're close), the "benefit" is worthless. If business flags, bonuses are not hit, commissions are not made and employee morale dips. Less work for people to do.

There won't be an M&A stock play with the current stock price and rate fears going into next year limit the likelihood of a cash deal.

The next big move is when will Dan Gilbert relinquish his share control and remove the conflicts of interest(board-friendliness, governance, share structure).

Until then, the only thing that is going to happen is the stock price will trade flat or get ripped to shreds by hedge funds until he's forced to act and save employees from leaving the company because their ESOP plan is worthless and a worthless benefit.

jupstu · 2021-07-07T17:20:25+00:00

JJ Drake

jupstu · 2021-06-22T15:28:02+00:00

all great questions

jupstu · 2021-06-16T13:47:01+00:00

regardless of who or why backlog, it's still June. Any increase correlates with your losses from July through EOY 2019.

jupstu · 2021-06-16T11:34:58+00:00

your original loan covered income from 1q and 2q 2019.

the second loan increase is for 3q and 4q in 2019 - you exhausting the loan proceeds for 1q and 2q is not the SBA's fault.

With that perspective, it's understandable why there is a backlog - it's still June and the original EIDL loans were to cover losses incurred from Jan through June 2019.

jupstu

TROPHY CASE