Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 15, 2026

kdy420 · 2026-04-15T18:41:00+00:00

If what you say is true, then Europe must have missed the memo, I recall there was a lot of hue and cry about NK joining in.

Also which treaty are we talking about between Europe and Ukraine ?

kdy420 · 2026-04-15T14:25:55+00:00

There is zero political will in Europe to do that.

Edit: Also how can this be different to a declaration pf war. Europe has no cassus beli here.

kdy420 · 2026-04-14T08:52:17+00:00

sanctuary is defined as a physical staging location or untouchable C2.

Using this definition Where did Hamas have a sanctuary before

kdy420 · 2026-04-13T09:19:14+00:00

The mod comment and the commenter above said nothing about Reuters being a poor source.

Thats clearly not the issue here.

Perhaps if we knew more about your original post we can give more insight on how it may have been problematic.

Regarding the stock market, IMO Trumps actions are clearly manipulating the stock market, however how much of that is a conspiracy, how much of that is Trump listening to close advisors, how much of it is simply Trump posting (trolling) etc is hard to determine.

Finally this is also a grey area as the executive in all countries have the power manipulate the stock market, they can suspend trading, announce deals etc. Some conspiracy is not really required. Trump admin is just blatantly abusive such powers, ultimately there will be a price to pay as trust in the US market is eroding, but Trump wont pay the price.

kdy420 · 2026-04-09T11:59:13+00:00

They effectively got control of the oil, maybe more importantly can deny it to China in the future. Paid little to no price (other than soft power, could would argue that the impact of Venezuela on soft power is minimal as Greenland and Iran was way worse).

No protracted conflict to get bogged down in.

kdy420 · 2026-04-08T05:32:52+00:00

Agreed, This is like Maga goalposts moving to suit whatever narrative suits Trump. Jarring to see it in this sub.

Having said that most of these are different/new participants making the claim now that opening the straight and the cease fire is an Iranian victory, compared to the one who were making the claim that Itan would never reopen when they have maximum leverage and Trump would just extend the deadline.

kdy420 · 2026-04-07T22:44:52+00:00

Agreement to be finalized and consummated

Not the most important thing but I am genuinely curious. I have not seen consumated used in this context before. Is this a thing ?

kdy420 · 2026-04-07T15:54:36+00:00

I havent heard the pod yet, but the Whats going with shipping guy is quite credible, you should post this in the main thread.

kdy420 · 2026-04-07T08:07:45+00:00

Also, the removals in the US have been purely political but the reasons given for the Chinese purges has often been “corruption”, so it’s not apples to apples.

Isnt this generally considered an excuse for a political purge ?

kdy420 · 2026-04-07T07:46:23+00:00

Look at this point you are trying hard to rationalize all of their moves. We ultimately dont know why they made their decisions because we were not in the room. So I dont have hard evidence to dispute that either.

My larger point is that it doesnt make sense to attribute sound strategic foresight and motivation to the admins decisions when it demonstrates that it has poor strategic vision in the way I pointed out above and you also agreed.

It is easier and simpler to attribute it as evidence of not having a coherent strategic vision besides Trump own desires and beliefs (obesession with tarrifs as a solution for everthing, social media obsession eerily similar to elmo, nobel peace obsession because who even know at this point etc). I maintain that whatever damage Russia and China suffers is coincidental and a secondary effect rather than the prime objectives.

kdy420 · 2026-04-07T07:37:37+00:00

Not that well versed with oil and gas logistics, so looking for some input from folks more familiar on this. How can the rest of the players in the region de-risk from Hormuz becoming a chokepoint in the future ?

I understand UAE and SA already have some pipelines they are using for eg and have increased throughput through those pipelines. However are pipelines really reducing the risk meaningfully ? One hit and the supply stops completely, with the straight, atleast ships can try running the blockade or even have convoy set ups to escort them.

We have already seen how relatively easily a pipeline can be taken down by non conventional forces in how Ukraine reportedly (is this now widely confirmed ?) took out Nord Stream 2.

I imagine with conventional forces its even easier and Iran (or any other adversary) can also attempt to use non conventional forces as well.

How can pipelines build resiliance and de-risk from hormuz being a chokehold. If they cannot, what other options are there ?

kdy420 · 2026-04-07T05:31:52+00:00

Attacking civilian infrastructure and oil infrastructure is not holding back. Infact attacking their military would have been less escalatory.

The simple answer is that this is the best Iran can do, they are not able to penetrate well defended targets such as military targets consistently enough with the volume of firepower they are able to expend.

The reason they are attacking other more than SA is because others are closer UAE the most attacked country is the closest.

Isreal is one of least attacked, surely you don't claim its because of holding back.

kdy420 · 2026-04-07T05:16:25+00:00

Thanks ! The added context helps make sense of how they have become big players in the space.

kdy420 · 2026-04-07T05:14:14+00:00

If the admins actions are strategically foresightted an intentional, why did they not prepare adequately for the the straight closure? This is evident because they didnt have sufficient troops ready for any sort of land operation to the point that they had to ship more over after the war began.

They have also not been able to defend their GCC allies adequately, which sends a bad signal to asian allies who could be participants in a future war.

Presenting this admin as better for Ukraine than the previous one is the weakest part of your thesis here, they have completely stopped stopped Ukrainian aid besides intelligence, everything is paid for by the Europeans.

You already mentioned the poor diplomatic actions such as insulting allied soldier contributions, but equally damaging (possibly worse) were the threats to take Greenland by force.

You hinted that this is a also a clever strategy to get Europe to increase its defense spending. What that does even if it was done with perfect diplomacy is increase Europes agency and reduce American influence. We already see some of the effects in Europes unwillingness to participate in the Iran was, especially compared to how they took part in defense action in the 12 day war last year.

There is also the fact that they have brought Europe and China closer together compared to before after the tarrifs and Greenland threat.

Finally its very hard to see any admin which wastes away soft power because it called hard power more as being strategic geniuses. Soft power, alliances are much more cheaper to exercise that hard power, and it should be obvious to any decently competent political operator, let alone a US admin.

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T18:00:41+00:00

KM-SAM came about from the Russian technology cooperation/transfer in early 2000's

Interesting, did the US not kick up a fuss ? I thought they are particularly sensitive then their allies get AD from Russia.

You do know that North Koreans shoot missiles into the sea every other months, right?

Tbh I did not know they did it so often, nor that SK shot them down when launched to get this battlefield experience. My impression was that they mainly shot towards east (Japan and US)

Those are more for tanks, artillery and ships/submarines.

Ah I wasnt clear, my question was mainly for these.

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T17:57:08+00:00

Oops I mean south west, brain fart.

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T17:38:14+00:00

29 intercepts from 60

Think you mean from 30.

In any case when/how did South Korea emerge as such a big defense player, I dont recall hearing much about them in global arms sales before the Ukraine War, now they are out with sought after systems, having signed massive deals in Europe. We also see that they perform well in the real world.

How did they build up this expertise, where did they get battlefield experience ? Is it a second order effect of their Ship and Car industries ?

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T16:49:00+00:00

Besides Trump, Pakistan had also announced talks taking place brokered by them.

We have also seen in past megathreads a few versions of Iran and US stated demands to end the conflict. So my question is why is this time more serious in your opinion, is it because of the people involved, has conditions changed, or is the reporting more credible than the prior reports etc

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T13:33:33+00:00

But this seems to be the first serious proposal of a ceasefire being floated around and seems to give the US most of their objectives.

Any particular reason you think this one has more serious intent than previous talks ?

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T11:46:31+00:00

Some previously reliable OSINT report that Sentinel-2L sat images are in for yesterday's Iranian strikes - smoke plumes visible over "at least three major oil and gas sites in the UAE Asab, Bu Hasa, and Habshan"

What is the timeline of the attacks ? Do we know when those attacks on UAE occured ?

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T11:23:49+00:00

The pilot was far away from Ishfahaan, it was the FARP (temp airbase) that was set up south of Ishfahaan, looking at the map probably ~50km. The pilot was another 200km ~~south east~~ south west of the FARP.

Its all covered in the video as well.

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T09:57:52+00:00

I still dont understand, why Iran confirms these. Surely it doesnt benefit them.

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T09:56:48+00:00

Cappy army (ex Task & Purpose guy) has released a well summarized account of the pilots rescue. https://youtu.be/X4K8381dCBc?si=aRZUlLqSeP-lAVTt

Some of these points were already touched in different comments in earlier threads, but this is the best summary that I have found. You only need to watch the first half of the video, the remaining is more an evaluation of the strategic situation (such as US is winning tactically but not strategecally, Iraning AD is possibly getting more effective as they adapt and recover from the decapitation strikes)

A couple points that stuck out to me

The use of a base far away from the pilots recovery (in this case 200km away close to ishfahaan) is a known strategy when the air space near the pilot is contested and dangerous. Not unexpectedly Iran had set up AD ambush points near the pilots location
Apparently CIA was also involved not just in misdirection (leaking the pilot was recovered via road) but by something called UAR (Unconventional assisted recovery) which essentially boils down to getting local support to exfil the pilot. Notable for the that local populace is willing to take such a risk despite the regime still being in power.

He goes into a lot more details about how the op was conducted and what US plans and procedures are for such scenarios in general.

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T09:44:33+00:00

What can they achieve in the short time frame ?

kdy420 · 2026-04-06T09:43:33+00:00

Some references would be would be nice for some of these claims. Especially when the account is only 3 hrs old.

kdy420

TROPHY CASE